MistaFlava's CFB Football Week 13 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups + Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2021 College Football Record: 49-47-1 ATS (-8.00 Units)

Had easily the best week of my season last week going 9-4 ATS and just missing out on an even better week had I not touched some horrendous teams early on but lesson learned and moving onto this week where I have decided to be very selective with my plays and even likely to go bigger on some games than others.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL AND GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Friday, November 26


Central Florida Knights -18.5 (10 Units)

The stats and trends are pointing to South Florida keeping this game close and somehow making a game of it the way I thought they would do last week but reality is Central Florida should blow the door handles off these guys and I think they will. It's a short week for South Florida who looked as bad as they have looked all year last weekend in a 45-14 loss to Tulane where they managed only 297 total yards of offense and were outyarded by 204 total yards in that game. That's now three straight games the Bulls are outyarded by 160+ total yards and last week kind of tole me they have mailed things in for the season. I've been hearing some crazy rumors all week that Central Florida QB Dillon Gabriel was going to be back for this game. I don't think it happens but I do think he dresses and I do think there is a small chance we do see him at some point in this game. The Knights however don't need him. They are averaging 452.7 total yards of offense per Home Game this season on 6.5 yards per pass attempt and are facing a South Florida defense that has allowed a whopping 481.6 total yards of offense away from home this season on 7.0 yards per play. The Bulls have the #125 ranked Total Yards allowed per game defense, the #120 ranked points allowed per game defense and they can't stop the pass or the run for their lives. Last year UCF scored 58 against South Florida but they also allowed 46 points in that game and I know they are going to pride themselves on making sure this does not happen again. The last three times South Florida has visited Central Florida the Knights have scored at least 34 points. The Knights defense is allowing only 301.5 total yards of offense per game at home this season on only 4.3 yards per play and I have 100% confidence they won't allow another 46 points like last year's meeting. South Florida is now 1-5 ATS in their last six Road Games and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played on a Friday. The Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and I'm going with Central Florida to have a tremendous Home Finale.

Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Central Florida 48, South Florida 3

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......hope you had a great Thanksgiving buddy......
well done last week, thank you.....BOL today with your action....indy

 

[thikrik]

AS USUAL NICE WRITE UP

 

[JohnnyMags]

Good Luck Mista

 

[MistaFlava]

Hopefully the dud out of the way now let's make some coin.


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Saturday, November 27


Florida Gators -3 (10 Units)

When the season started if I told you the Florida Gators would only be a Field Goal Favorite in this game would you have believed me or called me some crazy guy? Exactly. Well don't overthink things too much. When was the last time we had a Florida game with a spread this low? It's been a while and I'm here for it. How crazy is this finale for both programs? Winner takes all. Winner becomes Bowl Eligible and saves their season. FSU never expected to be in this spot after the way they started the season but they have a shot and it could change things for years to come in the program. Florida on the other hand never expected to be in this position but here they are. They have not covered a spread since October 9 when they beat the brakes off of Vanderbilt. They are 0-5 ATS since and none of those games have been close whatsoever. Dan Mullen is gone and I think the players have to feel partially responsible for that. I think all the bad results lately have people forgetting that Florida has the #10 ranked total yards per game offense and their running game has been good all season. Despite some of their recent success Florida State still comes into this game 4-10-1 ATS in their last 16 Road Games and they are only 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Non-Conference Games. Florida on the other hand have been pretty good at home versus team with a losing or .500 record away from home (FSU is 2-2) and the Favorite in this series is 16-4 ATS the last 20 meetings. I just can't pass this spread up and I think the Gators come into this game and execute. Ironically after Mullen is gone but sometimes that's how thing work.

Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings between these schools.


Florida 34, Florida State 17

 

[MistaFlava]

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Michigan State Spartans +4.5 (10 Units)

Fishy is an understatement for this line but what it's telling me basically is that the oddsmakers believe the Spartans win over Michigan at home weeks ago was a fluke and that they should not have won that game. Well that kind of is the case but based on how MSU played in that game and found a way to come back and win I would have to say they can do it again in their Home Finale here against a lesser Penn State side. How ironic as well that both programs come into this game only days off handing their current Head Coaches mega extensions that will take them right into the next decade if things go pretty well. Was it the right move? I don't know about that but in Michigan State's case they've looked a lot better this year than several of the past seasons despite the huge blowout loss to Ohio State last week. I know a lot of the betting public is on this game but rightfully so seeing how the line is a clear overreaction to the Spartans 56-7 loss last week in Columbus where they were outyarded by 400+ total yards. Penn State is coming off an impressive 28-0 win over Rutgers but this week they have to deal with RB Kenneth Walker who was virtually impossible to utilize last week because Ohio State went up by so much. Penn State won last year's battle 39-24 and they also clobbered Sparty 28-7 the last time the game was played in East Lansing. But no so fast. New era in Michigan State football. They are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five Home Games and 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they allowed 450+ total yards of offense. The Spartans are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming off such a blowout loss and in their final Home Game of the season I'm picking them to win an ugly one.

Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 450+ total yards of offense.


Michigan State 21, Penn State 17

 

[Lotterymoney]

Your whole season had been a dud. Still negative after 97 games. One winning week. Good grief

 

[freddy66]

Lots of mich st starters out this game.I hear 20+

 

[vinnyvegas]

Yea Flav…hearing same. Flu bug MSU. I’m on PSU small just due to news.

 

[MistaFlava]

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Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 (10 Units)

The entire planet is going to be on Illinois for this game today but I say NOT SO FAST! Not the most appealing game to bet on with so many rivalries at stake but this one seems to be a bit underrated and I don't think Northwestern is as a bad as they were at one point this season. With the Wildcats sitting at 3 wins and Illinois sitting at 4 wins neither one of these teams is going to a Bowl Game so the season ends here. This is a big one. Well there is still a small chance Illinois would get an invite with a win here but who knows. I know it's hard to be on Northwestern because they are 0-4 ATS on the road this season but Illinois have not been all that great at home going 2-3-1 ATS and if there is a game the Wildcats can play well in it will be this one. If you don't believe me when I say Northwestern gets up and excited for this game every single season go back and look at the history of these two teams. The Wildcats have won six in a row in this matchup and that includes a 19 point straight up win as a +6.5 point underdog their last time here. These two teams are almost identical in the sense that they can't score and some of the only success they have on offense is running the ball. Some interesting stats that are worth mentioning for all you trend enthusiasts. Northwestern comes into this game 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games coming off a double digit loss at home their previous game and they have covered the spread in 35 of their last 51 games as an Underdog. They are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game and are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a Favorite and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Home Games as a Favorite. This game is going to be a hot mess but I think Northwestern keeps it close and either wins or covers on the final possession.

Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game.


Northwestern 17, Illinois 16

 

[MistaFlava]

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Oregon Ducks -7 (10 Units)

THE CIVIL WAR is being overshadowed a bit this year because of what happened last week. I'm kind of sick of talking about the Oregon Ducks this and the Oregon Ducks that because that's all anyone has been talking about all week. The Ducks kind of threw away their CFP chances last week in a very weird loss at Utah and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back only one week later against their in State rivals. There will be a lot of money on both sides in this one and don't forget they are getting an early start but the Ducks have been begging to get back on the field this week because a spot in the PAC 12 Championship is still on the line which means a spot in the Rose Bowl is also still on the line despite not being what the Ducks wanted after their spot in the CFP Rankings the last few weeks but that's college football. Oregon State are coming off wins against Arizona State and Stanford at home but let's take a look at what they've done on the road so far this season. They won at USC but that doesn't mean much and was all the way back in September. They then went on the Road and lost by 7 at Washington State, they lost by 14 at California and most recently they lost in Overtime against a Colorado team that was an 11.5 point home underdog. Oregon is 1-5 ATS at home this season but this is their biggest game of the year and they come into this game with the #21 ranked running offense in the Country which is a problem for Oregon State who have had issues stopping the run in Conference play this season. Don't look at too many stats because you'll be blinded by the fact that Oregon State have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 as a road dog but this is rivalry week. Oregon is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they score 20 points or less. This will be a heated one but Oregon will get revenge for last week's fiasco and their three point loss in this game last year.

Trend of the Game: Oregon is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record.


Oregon 38, Oregon State 17

 

[hobbs4]

Happy Thanksgiving buddy. Let's make cash

 

[MistaFlava]

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Southern Methodist Mustangs -6.5 (10 Units)

Things are not going well for the SMU Mustangs coming off that huge blowout loss to Cincinnati last week where they were embarrassed and outyarded by 345 total yards of offense in that game but I think this is a pretty good bounce back spot considering how good they have been at home. The only concern here would be the fact that it was announced yesterday that their head coach Sonny Dykes was moving on and taking the Head Coach position at TCU next season but teams often don't react as negatively as people think to this kind of news. Looking back on the game last week and how poorly this team has played the last couple of weeks maybe they were reacting to the rumors of the Dykes news and now that it's been official everyone can move on and they can focus on some of their big games coming up. Despite their horrendous offensive output last week the Mustangs still have the #1 offense in the AAC Conference this season and they are due for a bounce back game. In previous home games this season SMU has outyarded South Florida by 163 total yards, Tulane by 184 total yards and Central Florida by 298 total yards in a huge 55-28 home win a few weeks ago that is more a reflection of how good this team is. Tulsa has a good team and they have been competitive in their big games. They also need a win today to become Bowl Eligible but I'm not sure they can score enough to keep up. They are ranked #91 in the Country in points scored per game and their defense has forced only 8 turnovers all season. SMU will likely score at will trying to make the most of what is left this season and the Golden Hurricane have allowed 28+ points in four of their five road games this season. Tulsa looked good last week in a 44-10 home win over Temple but they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they score 40+ points. I also would never go against SMU at home where they are 6-0 ATS in their last six Home Games and have covered 20 of their last 28 Home Games as a Favorite while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a loss of more than 20 points. Emotions will be running high here on the SMU side of things and preventing Tulsa from going Bowling will be an added bonus motivation wise. SMU with a huge bounce back game here.

Trend of the Game: Southern Methodist is 6-0 ATS in their last six Home Games.


Southern Methodist 41, Tulsa 20

 

[MistaFlava]

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Louisiana State Tigers +6.5 (10 Units)

I knew going into last week that Louisiana State was going to save one last monster game for their outgoing head coach Ed Orgeron and I thought it may have come last week. Reason being is that going into last week they needed two wins to become Bowl Eligibile (although they are likely going anyways) and no matter what the fan base or the analysts say about Coach O, he is still loved by these players and they want to give him a proper sendoff. Well it didn't exactly happen last week as the Tigers went through the motions in a rough 27-14 win over UL-Monroe but I think they are saving their best for last for the coach that won them a National Championship only three seasons ago. We already saw what this LSU team can do when they are underdogs and playing some of the better teams in the SEC Conference. They had Alabama on the ropes in a 20-14 loss and they also took Arkansas to the brink in 16-13 loss and this game should be the same kind of game. The Aggies are playing some good football and they have one of the best defenses in college football allowing only 14.9 points per game but their offense is not good enough to win this game in a blowout even if they find a way to win in the end. They have the #92 ranked passing offense in the Country and they prefer to run the ball and grind the clown down to a complete bore for high scoring enthusiasts. That works in LSU's favor if the Tigers can make some plays. It's also worth pointing out that LSU stayed close with Arkansas and Alabama because they don't turn the ball over and have only 5 turnovers all season in 2021. Take note of this stat right now. LSU is 10-0 ATS IN THE LAST 10 MEETINGS WITH TEXAS A&M and now they get to face them with their loved Head Coach likely on the sidelines for the final game of his LSU career. The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games coming off an ATS spread loss and they are at their best as an underdog going 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games. I am going LSU to win this game for Coach O and reach official Bowl Eligibility.

Trend of the Game: Louisiana State is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Texas A&M.


Louisiana State 23, Texas A&M 20

 

[MistaFlava]

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Kentucky Wildcats +3 (10 Units)

I honestly didn't think this game would be that juicy coming into this season because the teams were trending in different directions and both had chances of improving or regressing but here we are in the regular season finale for both programs and both programs come into this game having already clinched Bowl Eligibility which is huge and which should make this game one heck of a good one. The Wildcats come in on a two game win streak but those games were as heavy favorites and in their last real battle with an opponent they got their asses handed to them by the Tennessee Volunteers in a 45-42 loss (okay not exactly asses handed to them). There will be a lot of focus on that loss to the Vols but if you look a little closer it was Kentucky who threw the game away and they managed to outyard Tennessee by 151 total yards in that game. There is also the two road losses to Georgia and Mississippi State this season but Kentucky is better than that we'll see it today. In their last three games the Wildcats have cranked out 612, 413 and 707 total yards of offense. Louisville has been shredded to bits in the passing game this season and they'll be so focused on the running game that Kentucky can take advantage in the air. Alright so here is the deal. Both teams are playing decent football but I am going with Kentucky because they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Non-Conference Games and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Louisville plays well for the most part but against big name programs and good teams they just don't. The Cardinals have covered the spread in only 11 of their last 38 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus SEC Conference opponents. Kentucky comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Louisville and the Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Should be a great game but unlike against Tennessee in a close one, Kentucky makes the big plays late to win this.

Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus Non-Conference opponents.


Kentucky 24, Louisville 21

 

[MistaFlava]

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Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 (10 Units)

BEDLAM IN THE HOUSE!!! Oh wow what a game we have on tap tonight and I am going all in on this one. I was already going to place a wager on the Oklahoma Sooners before this morning but then I watched ESPN College GameDay and saw them throw up a stat that Oklahoma is an incredible 17-1 SU in this matchup/series when both teams are ranked. WOW! The Sooners come into this game as the #10 ranked team in the Country and Oklahoma State comes into this game ranked as the #7 ranked team in the Country. With a win in this game both can make a case that they should be playing in the College Football Playoff although that is very unlikely to happen. Also on the line in this game for Oklahoma is a spot in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game next week where pretty much anything can happen from now until then and you just never know. Nonetheless this is a huge game and I can't wait. I think way too many bettors are going to focus on Oklahoma's loss against Baylor and how they were unable to do anything on the offensive side of things but there is no chance this Sooners offense is going to be held to less than 300 total yards again. So much praise for the Oklahoma State defense and don't get me wrong they have been good but have they seen an offense like Oklahoma's all season? I don't think so and this is where we are going to find out what they are all about. The Sooners come into this game an incredible 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Road Games as an Underdog and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall as an Underdog. I already talked about Oklahoma winning 17 of the last 18 games where both these teams were ranked but spread wise the Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Oklahoma State and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. The Cowboys come into this game on a nine game win streak and I won't say too many bad things about them because of how good they've been this season but both teams know what's on the line here and Oklahoma will look better than they have all year in a really well rounded effort to win this and setup a massive Big 12 Championship Game next week.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 17-1 SU versus Oklahoma State when both teams are ranked.


Oklahoma 33, Oklahoma State 31

 

[MistaFlava]

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Memphis Tigers -6 (10 Units)

I'm trying to figure out what I missed with this line and why it has been set so low. Kind of like the SMU game earlier I feel the line is way off based on what oddsmakers saw last week but much like the SMU game bettors are not listening and are pounding the team that should win and cover. I'm a little worried but if I somehow split the two games I'll take the small loss because it's not my style to align with the public so much in any type of football game but here we are. Tulane comes into this game done for the season and having no chance to make it to a Bowl Game which was a bit disappointing for them. They are however coming off a huge home win over South Florida (yes I was on the Bulls last week and then faded them yesterday and neither went well) which was their first win since September 11. Does that mean they are finally turning things around and are going to salvage their season with another good performance in the finale? I don't think so. Memphis is coming off a 31-13 loss at Houston in a game where they looked awful on both sides of the ball and didn't seem all that engaged from the opening kickoff. It wasn't all that shocking because they looked awful against East Carolina in their last home game too losing as a 4 point home favorite. So now they need a win to become Bowl Eligible and I think they'll get it done off some big plays in this game. Tulane's defense is pretty bad and their offense is even worse but they looked good against USF last week, a complete anomaly in my eyes. Tulane comes into this game 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Road Games. The Green Wave are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a game where they won by 20+ points and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Memphis. The Tigers on the other hand are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Home Games and despite the loss last week they are a good November team to bet on going 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games played in the 11th month of the year. I hate how many people are on Memphis but I'll stick with my wager.

Trend of the Game: Memphis is 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games played in November.


Memphis 34, Tulane 13

 

[MistaFlava]

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Southern California Trojans +7 (10 Units)

Just when you thought they were dead the Trojans will come back from the dead and surprise a lot of people in this game. I've had this gut feeling for a while now and I think we see it play out in the Week 13 Finale tonight. Yes this is the final game of the Regular Season (unless you count the USC game next week haha) for College Football for the most part and with this being the final game of the night and 75-80% of the betting public all on one side this was an easy choice for me. BYU looked very ordinary last week against Georgia Southern where they failed to cover the 20 point spread as a Road Favorite and that was off the heels of huge wins over Idaho State (blowout) and that crazy game against Virginia. I think bettors are still thinking about the Virginia game and what this Cougars offense can do. Mistake. Go back and look at some of BYU's road games this year. They lost to Baylor by 14 and they barely got by Washington State in a 21-19 win as a -3.5 point favorite. I don't trust them and in what has been a crazy year for USC in 2021 they somehow still have a chance to win their last two games and reach a Bowl Game. The Trojans are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in the last decade of the program as UCLA blew the handles off the Trojans in a 62-33 blowout win last week but the Trojans were only outyarded by 125 total yards in that game and the offense was still rolling. QB Jaxson Dart was actually really good last week and he can do some damage against a BYU pass defense ranked #76 in the Country allowing 234.4 passing yards per game this season. BYU comes into this game a pretty bad 1-5 ATS in their last six Road Games and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five Road Games as a Favorite. Keep that in mind as the masses pile up on them here. USC got killed last week but they still have a ton of talent at every position. The Trojans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 40+ points in their previous game and I think they keep their Bowl Game hopes alive with a shock win here to end the week.

Trend of the Game: Southern California is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 40+ points in their previous game.


Southern California 27, Brigham Young 24

 

[RMoney22]

Your whole season had been a dud. Still negative after 97 games. One winning week. Good grief

Fuck you, you miserable piece of shit! I don't see you posting your plays. All I see you do is cry after someone posts a loser. Why don't you try and cap a game yourself??

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright pretty good day so far and would love USC to bring it home! Congrats to anyone who's already in the GREEN today. Some incredible games today and the night is not done. Just unreal!