YTD 18-7 +11.69
Chicago-Detroit UNDER 41.5 -105 1.5pts
The Thursday game between Chicago and Detroit initially spells a no bet for me as The Lions are just a bad bet anytime and The Bears while covering the spread, let me down on the M/L last week. The Bears bet had everything going for it with Jackson out and the line moving from +220 to +112 yet they still messed up with the usual penalties, points left behind and dumb play calling. So as I’m in front betting wise and will be watching the game I thought I’d look at the Total instead with my early lean to the under.
Just to get a handle on where the Books are I use score per drive stats and drives per game averages to come to a game total, simple stuff but in my experience as good as any to get a figure. Obviously as always injuries, weather have to be taken into account. So, getting the info from football outsiders drive stats by adding the game drives together dividing by number of games gives drives between 10 up to a rare 12. These are the number of drives each team will get during a game and are essential if you are betting in play as it tells you how many series a team has left to score. If you tally up the various points per drive offense and defense then multiply by the number of series you get a points per game, adding 1.5 pts to give you a top limit which takes in turnovers etc. This game tallies at
10.20 drives per team.
Detroit 20 points, Chicago 20.6 1.5 for T/Os = 42 pts.
With all the different scoring nowadays I'm not sure the old key numbers still suffice but until someone comes up with a new version I’ll stick to the original. 42 is a dead number so the 41.5 is workable, even though normally I'd want extra scope. What makes this play attractive is according to Teamrankings, Chicago and Detroit are 30th & 31st in 1st half scoring at an average of 13pts between them, this reduces even more over the last 3 games to 8.6 !! That gives a good expectation that you can review the bet at halftime or calculate the possible points left as the drives reduce. Personally I will risk an extra 0.5pt in the hope of a halftime hedge.
Chicago-Detroit UNDER 41.5 -105 1.5pts
The Thursday game between Chicago and Detroit initially spells a no bet for me as The Lions are just a bad bet anytime and The Bears while covering the spread, let me down on the M/L last week. The Bears bet had everything going for it with Jackson out and the line moving from +220 to +112 yet they still messed up with the usual penalties, points left behind and dumb play calling. So as I’m in front betting wise and will be watching the game I thought I’d look at the Total instead with my early lean to the under.
Just to get a handle on where the Books are I use score per drive stats and drives per game averages to come to a game total, simple stuff but in my experience as good as any to get a figure. Obviously as always injuries, weather have to be taken into account. So, getting the info from football outsiders drive stats by adding the game drives together dividing by number of games gives drives between 10 up to a rare 12. These are the number of drives each team will get during a game and are essential if you are betting in play as it tells you how many series a team has left to score. If you tally up the various points per drive offense and defense then multiply by the number of series you get a points per game, adding 1.5 pts to give you a top limit which takes in turnovers etc. This game tallies at
10.20 drives per team.
Detroit 20 points, Chicago 20.6 1.5 for T/Os = 42 pts.
With all the different scoring nowadays I'm not sure the old key numbers still suffice but until someone comes up with a new version I’ll stick to the original. 42 is a dead number so the 41.5 is workable, even though normally I'd want extra scope. What makes this play attractive is according to Teamrankings, Chicago and Detroit are 30th & 31st in 1st half scoring at an average of 13pts between them, this reduces even more over the last 3 games to 8.6 !! That gives a good expectation that you can review the bet at halftime or calculate the possible points left as the drives reduce. Personally I will risk an extra 0.5pt in the hope of a halftime hedge.
