Week 13: Thanksgiving Week

[ofred]

Back in the black with about a +11 unit week. I believe this is the last full schedule week. There's got to be some good plays on the card.

YTD: 93-78, +8.13 units. Leans: 26-19. FCS: 9-2 (Liked the Montana under last week, but the totals come out so late Saturday, forgot to play it)

1* WMU -3 (-125) WMU, like Ball State, have surprisingly underperformed this season. WMU's offense is able to move the ball very well down the field, but tends to struggle to score TDs when in the red zone. But really they have all the talent to score a bunch, especially against a NIU team that already has their place in the MAC Championship game clinched. I doubt NIU rests players, or plays vanilla, but there is no longer a sense of urgency, and they are coming off an OT win from last week. WMU also leads the conference in TFLs, puts very good pressure on opponent QBs, and has one of the best LB corps of the MAC. Rocky Lombardi has had a good season for NIU, but he is a bit turnover prone, and last week's fumble vs. UB caused a momentum change that nearly cost NIU the game. WMU is number 1 in MAC run defense, while NIU is next to last. I think we'll see that matter Tuesday since both teams run so often.

 

[ofred]

1* Miss. State -1 Ole Miss has seemingly played better defense in their last 4 games, but I'm not buying it. Even in their Texas A&M game, Calzada played like s**t. They allowed Vandy to move the ball well, with many 3rd and 4th down conversions. They fell asleep 2nd half vs. Liberty. Then there's all the distractions about which team Kiffin is supposed to jump to next. Florida, Miami, LSU? Matt Corral already declared that he will be entering the draft. He couldn't wait one more week? MSU will just come to play, at home, with a solid run defense, and a QB that while not as spectacular as Corral, is spectacularly consistent. Ole Miss just turns it on and off too much, while the Bulldogs are focused every play.

 

[pennspride]

Jumped on board with both of these plays. Good luck this week Fred.,

 

[ofred]

WMU at 42-14, so looking good so far. +9 units.

3* WSU -1 Yes, Colorado got lucky last week, but no regrets. The play won. Besides, Dylan Morris' fumble, and Colorado's scoop and score, is part of what makes UW's offense so inept. Washington's offensive yards were, as usual, semi-meaningless in resulting in scores. Expect more of the same this week. Wazzu almost always loses the Apple Cup, but they almost always are a weaker team than Washington. Yet, I haven't seen a Husky team this bad offensively, or in run defense, in a long time. Husky run game is also their worst in a long time. The Cougs have been as good any PAC 12 team 2nd half of this season. If not for Oregon's QB Anthony Brown's scrambling abilities, WSU might have upset Oregon or at least got closer than 14. Washington has now had two games since firing the OC and not having Jimmy Lake as HC. Wazzu lost their HC too, and some asst. coaches, but they have played better since. Big plus here is QB Jayden DeLaura and his ability to run, scramble, and find receivers while doing so. WSU also can run the ball well. The Cougs are long overdue for a win, and they have the superior team, the better grit. This is bigger than any bowl game for WSU.

2* UCF/ USF- over 62 I have no faith in USF that they can hold any team under 45 points. But UCF has also had their defensive woes. Two mobile QBs, although neither are very good passers. Just a got a feeling about this game, like last years's 100+ point game, that USF pulls all the stops and Timmy McClain has a pretty good outing. USF is dead last in run defense, and UCF is dead last in pass defense.

 

[3pointdog]

Nice Call on western Michigan Fred..!

 

[ofred]

WMU at 42-14, so looking good so far. +9 units.

3* WSU -1 Yes, Colorado got lucky last week, but no regrets. The play won. Besides, Dylan Morris' fumble, and Colorado's scoop and score, is part of what makes UW's offense so inept. Washington's offensive yards were, as usual, semi-meaningless in resulting in scores. Expect more of the same this week. Wazzu almost always loses the Apple Cup, but they almost always are a weaker team than Washington. Yet, I haven't seen a Husky team this bad offensively, or in run defense, in a long time. Husky run game is also their worst in a long time. The Cougs have been as good any PAC 12 team 2nd half of this season. If not for Oregon's QB Anthony Brown's scrambling abilities, WSU might have upset Oregon or at least got closer than 14. Washington has now had two games since firing the OC and not having Jimmy Lake as HC. Wazzu lost their HC too, and some asst. coaches, but they have played better since. Big plus here is QB Jayden DeLaura and his ability to run, scramble, and find receivers while doing so. WSU also can run the ball well. The Cougs are long overdue for a win, and they have the superior team, the better grit. This is bigger than any bowl game for WSU.

2* UCF/ USF- over 62 I have no faith in USF that they can hold any team under 45 points. But UCF has also had their defensive woes. Two mobile QBs, although neither are very good passers. Just a got a feeling about this game, like last years's 100+ point game, that USF pulls all the stops and Timmy McClain has a pretty good outing. USF is dead last in run defense, and UCF is dead last in pass defense.

Pertaining to above UCF-USF game, dead last in their conference, not nationally.

 

[ofred]

MSU line now at -2.5 or -3. Not sure why.

1.3* Nebraska -1 I'm not sure if there will be much of a drop-off from Adrian Martinez to Logan Smothers. Nebraska has nothing to look forward to except this game. Smothers doesn't have the experience of AM, but he's probably an equal as an athlete or a dual threat. Both teams have highly respectable defenses, but Iowa's offense has looked downright pathetic in recent games. If not for Tyler Goodson's running, I don't see a lot there to convert a 3rd down or a get the ball downfield. Iowa has been counting too much on turnovers, and when they aren't there, they sputter. In last weeks' game with Illinois, they capitalized on turnovers and short fields, but only mustered 250 yards of offense. Nebraska has lost a bunch of close games to the best of the Big 10- they are due for a little luck.

`1.2* UTEP +14 (-115) UAB has not been that kind of dominant team this year. They used to be studs running the ball and on the defense. Now, they are just pretty good, and I think UTEP's offense can exploit the UAB D. UTEP's QB, Gavin Hardison, has had a few inopportune picks in recent games, but he and his receivers have been consistently been able to move the ball. The UTEP run game is also decent. UAB QB Dylan Hopkins has been sacked 13 times his last four games, and he's inconsistent as a passer. I think this game will be close throughout, with UTEP having a chance for an upset.

1* SD State/ Boise- under 44.5 I watched Boise play a few times this season, and am not impressed with Hank Bachmeier or their offense. The OL is probably their worst in many years. If not for blocked punt TDs(2), the UNM game last week would have been much closer. SD State has had mediocre QBs for years now. How can a good program like SD State miss on QB recruits so often? But they are the best of the Mt. West defensively. They are also coming off a UNLV game where the defense played below expectations. I think they'll play much better, at home, vs. perennial rival Boise. SD State will pound the rock this week, and keep their passes in the 5-10 range. They run the ball about 65% of the time, and even Boise runs it about 55% of their plays. Clock running drives, good defense, low score.

 

[ofred]

1* ECU +14.5 Got this at -110. By Friday, this line could dip under the 14. ECU has played well since early season. Even their close loss at Houston was a game they could have won, if not for turnovers. And that is been ECU and Holton Ahlers nemesis the past few years. But their defense is much improved, the run game has a stud in Keaton Mitchell, and even Ahlers has become less of a gambler in 2021. UC's thumping of SMU was impressive, but they've had plenty of earlier games where they failed to pull away, and were ATS losers. Got to be careful not to use last week as a barometer of where this UC team is. They are hopeful for a spot in the NCS Playoff, but these late season road games can be tough to win vs. pretty good opponent.

 

[indiana]

Fred......BOL with your action this week buddy.....
you and your family have a great Thanksgiving.......indy

 

[Coach4040]

Win or lose nothing but kudos to you and your write ups. One of the best. Good Luck.

 

[ofred]

Thanks Coach, Indy. Good luck. Thanksgiving- Family, good food, football and of course, betting.

 

[jamezwinn]

BOL Ofred

 

[ofred]

Won that morning under by the skin of my teeth. No scores between SD State and Boise for the last 22 minutes of the game.

In past Thanksgiving week cards, there have been a multitude of absolute blowouts- home or away. The dominant teams play this week like a loss would ruin their season. Here are three for me that just seem like huge mismatches, and versus opponents that have so much going wrong for them. Especially at the end of the season.

5* ND -20.5 Stanford is an awful football team, and this might not just be a blip when considering the next few seasons. Their talent level is down considerably. They look unmotivated and overwhelmed on both sides of the ball, and special teams. I think ND will want to beat them badly for any chance at a playoff spot. ND has improved as much as any team in the country over the last half of the season. The OL has really solidified. The younger players have gone from inexperienced and mistake-prone to becoming valuable starters. ND can run the ball all day on this run defense. Stanford's 30 point loss to Cal was not a fluke. Other than one long drive, Stanford's offense was s**t. ND's defense will be even tougher to move the ball on. I expect a large contingent of ND fans, and just neutral fans, at this game. Home field advantage- not so much.

 

[ofred]

3* Georgia -35
2* Georgia 1H -21 I know the common thought is that with their spot already solidified in the SEC championship game, will Georgia get motivated for a rivalry game that isn't such a big rivalry in the first place. Georgia has a lot to lose, though, even by allowing GT to hang around in this game. Besides, GT has stayed in some games by counting on turnovers, and by their decent run game. They won't run on Georgia, and I doubt they get much through the air. GT has 2 young QBs who have looked "rough" passing the ball, and that's against weak ACC defenses. GT's defense is only better than Duke's in the ACC, but worse than Virginia. And this is where the game will be a skunking- when the Dawgs have the ball...and in likely turnovers and short fields that give them the ball. If Georgia doesn't hit 50 here, I'd be surprised.

 

[ofred]

4* Appalachian St. -25 App. State has been dominating the last 4 weeks, and now they will go for that 10-2 record vs. a hapless Georgia Southern team that has somewhat checked out after a month and a half of their coach getting fired. Georgia Southern's remaining coaches need to look for jobs elsewhere. They have two injured QBs, one that is likely not going to play, one that might play. Their 3rd stringer might play a lot. Not sure it matters- Ga. Southern has the worst passing offense in the conference. App. State's offense is predicated on getting their quick playmakers into space, and having them extend the plays. This is a tough venue for any visiting team, but Georgia Southern is just a beaten down program. Hiring Clay Helton is not a good sign for the future. And without a even mediocre passing game, a backdoor cover is unlikely.

 

[ofred]

The early games turned for the worse. both Nebraska and UTEP frittered away their games/ covers.

2* Arizona +20 ASU had probably the most inflated lines in the PAC 12. They haven't played their best ball for weeks. Jayden Daniels continues to under impress. This ASU team just seems to lack emotion, makes too many mistakes, executes poorly, and I guess Herm Edwards will be out the door after the season. Arizona's season went bad in a hurry, but to their credit, they have played competitively in the 2nd half. The defense has not been good, but it has played physically, and stays engaged for all 60 minutes. They have covered 4 of their last 5, and even in last week's loss, the score didn't indicate how they played. QB Will Plummer has played surprisingly well, and has looked good running the ball.

2* BYU -7 BYU fans might outnumber the USC fans here. Other than the possibility of Jaxson Dart of having an incredible game, without Drake London, USC has little to go on. And even Dart got picked off twice last week, holds the ball too long, and is liable to make some freshman mistakes. USC also is coming off a complete beatdown to UCLA. How do teams play vs. a non-conference opponent, the week after losing badly in a rivalry game? I'm guessing some of the USC players have checked out. BYU should be able to run the ball on this pathetic USC run defense. They are also 112th in passing efficiency defense.

 

[ofred]

1* Syracuse +13 Really don't like Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader, but Syracuse has been competitive in so many games this season, winning 5. They beat BC and VT, came close vs. Clemson. Pitt already has a spot in the ACC Championship game, and Narduzzi is getting rumored offers for other coaching jobs, so maybe they are a little unfocused here. Syracuse will have to run the ball with Sean Tucker about 30 times here to keep the ball away from Pickett.

1* LSU +6.5 LSU's game with A&M will be quite the event. Ed O's final game at home, at night, and playing what is pretty much their bowl game. They will need to get Zach Calzada on one of his poor outings, which is a very real possibility. Death Valley can be loud, and tough on QBs/ visiting offenses. A&M is only going bowling in a middling bowl game, many players might sit out that game. Kind of a downer season for them.

1* Kansas +15 Not a full unit, but close. Kansas is at home, playing a WVU team that rarely puts two good games back to back. The offense can sputter for no reason. Kansas is getting surprisingly good QB play, and the OL has improved over earlier this year. I doubt they win, but they have played pretty well in the 2H this year.

 

[ofred]

1.5* Southern Miss -13 Can't imagine taking SM at -13 with their QB problems? But I think they'll roll here. They are coming off an upset of LT, the defense is really good, and they can run the ball well enough. Mostly, it's that FlU has got to be DONE for the season. They got killed on senior night by UNT by 40 points, their HC has been bad mouthing the program, and they are an awful team on both sides of the ball. I can see SM getting some turnovers and lots of 3 and outs from this FIU offense. The way FIU is playing, and with the program/ team in total dysfunction mode, they would have a hard time beating UMass or UConn.

1* Florida -3 Buying low here. After Mullen's dismissal, I can envision Florida pulling together and playing for each other. Florida still plenty of talent, and has a home crowd. FSU is not that good either. Better than expected, but still with plenty of flaws.

 

[ofred]

Wazzu saves the day from being a disaster.

2* Southern Miss -13. Upping from 1.5*

 

[Coach4040]

Fred any FCS games you like. A light schedule. TIA.