Thursday Service Play Thread 11/25/2021

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Sorry to clutter but today there is a game that could end up being a bloodbath of services all on the same side and that is the Buff/Saints game the saints are beat to shit looks like 3 offensive linemen are out top 2 running backs are out and Siemien has enough tape out now that people know what to expect plus they are weak at WR also ( 4 services at Pregame have big plays on this game Essler-Nover-Goodfella-Spartan what's the chance they are all on the same side with the info that's out on the Saints ) the only thing is that the Bills aren't exactly setting the world on fire right now
No big deal though easier was on buff or am I not understanding your writing. Thanks let me know.
One of those mornings lol. So you are saying many on buff..and saint could stuff there turkey?
 

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Essler has the saints he says it's just to easy to take buff with all the people out for the saints but from what I have seen so far most people are on buff
 

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8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

The Bills (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are only 2-3 over their last five games and just got crushed by the Colts 41-15, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. The Saints (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) are also struggling, mired in a 3-game losing skid. New Orleans just got rolled by Philadelphia 40-29, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Bills, driving Buffalo up to the key number of -6. Some shops are even heading to 6.5. At this point, the Saints possess some buy-low inflated line value at 6.5. Sean Payton is 4-1 ATS as a dog this season and 45-26 ATS (63%) in his career. Primetime dogs are 22-11 ATS (67%) this season. Wiseguys also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 32-20 (62%) this season. This is also a non-conference under match (68%).
 

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Bob Balfe

12:30 PM EST
Rotation #105
Bears -3 over Lions
Bears/Lions Over 41.5
Jared Goff is going to try to give it a go for the Lions and it looks like it will be Andy Dalton for the Bears. If Goff can’t go it will be Tim Boyle. All of these QB’s are good for a defensive INT score and both pass defenses have been pretty brutal this year so on a short week I do like the Over. There are just not many players on both rosters that can sack the QB. All of the really good sack artist are on IR or injured for this game. I think we will see more points because of short fields. I have been impressed with D’Andre Smith at running back for the Lions, but have little faith in this passing attack to play well enough to win the football game. The Lions right side of the offensive line is out so it will make it that much harder. Andy Dalton is a veteran QB and looked pretty good last week. The Bears have a talented offensive roster and are an elite QB away from being a good team. Detroit played well against a hobbled Baker Mayfield last week, but their pass defense is still really bad and they can’t stop the run. The Bears defense is not much better, but this team has won games. The Lions have yet to register a win so with a new coaching staff they are going to have to prove they can do it first before they can be backed. Take the Bears and the Over.
NFL
4:30 PM EST
Rotation #107
Raiders +7.5 over Cowboys
Dallas has been night and day this year, but they are not the same team when Elliott is nursing an injury, the offensive line is banged up and Cooper and Lamb are banged up at receiver. This offense was pushed around last week by a bad defense because they just don’t have their weapons at full strenght. On defense the Cowboys are still dealing with an defensive line missing key player. I like the backend of this Dallas defense, but I think the Raiders can move the ball on the ground today with Jacobs and Drake. Las Vegas has a lot of really good talent and they are capable of beating teams in the air. I think on a short week this line is set too high. I like Las Vegas in the trenches today and believe the can win this game outright. This number has great value. Take the Raiders.
NFL
8:20 PM EST
Rotation #109
Bills-6.5 over Saints
Josh Allen has struggled a bit the last few weeks but it has not been his offensive lines fault. The Saints have a very good pass defense and Buffalo is a throw first team so Allen has to be on point. My concern today with the Saints is the offense. Taysom Hill being QB and the Saints not having Alvin Kamara is such a big loss. Mark Ingram just got back in town a few weeks ago and he is banged up. The Saints might have backups at running back and again I just am not scared of Taysom Hill beating the best defense in the NFL. New Orleans is banged up on the offensive line and they have no depth at all. The Saints are missing big key receivers and I don’t see a lot of points in their forecast. The Bills have a good offensive line that can take advantage of the Saitns Defensive line which is missing a few pass rushers. The Bills over 60 minutes should pull away. Favorites have been awful this year so there is a reason why Vegas made the Bills such big favorites on the road. Buffalo is the more complete team and should win big. Take the Bills.
 

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Insider Sports Report

D* Mississippi St. -2 over Mississippi (NCAAF)
Range: -.5 to -4.5
C* Dallas -7.5 over Las Vegas (NFL)
Range: -5.5 to -9.5
C* Buffalo/New Orleans OVER 45.5 (NFL)
Range: 43.5 to 47.5
 

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Elite Sports Picks

Mississippi/Mississippi St. UNDER 64 (NCAAF)
 

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National Sports Service
D* Chicago/Detroit UNDER 41 (NFL)
C* Las Vegas/Dallas OVER 51.5 (NFL)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Mississippi St. -2 over Mississippi (NCAAF)
C Unit --> Fresno St. -7.5 over San Jose St. (NCAAF)

Top Rank Sports Picks
E★ Buffalo/New Orleans OVER 45.5 (NFL)
C★ Fresno St./San Jose St. OVER 52.5 (NCAAF)
 

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Sports Betting Guru

NCAAB GOY:
Dayton +5.5

NFL VIP:
Saints +6
 

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Adam Trigger

Miss. St -135 (D%)
 

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Madden08 Recap (Updated)

Adam Trigger
D Mississippi State -135

August Young
D Miami Florida -6

Bob Balfe
Bears -3
Bears/Lions Over 41.5
Raiders +7.5
Bills -6.5

Brad Feinberg
Bills

Bryan Leonard

D Mississippi State -1.5
C San Diego State -6

Carmine Bianco
D Teaser Buffalo Bills & Dallas Cowboys
D Teaser Buffalo Bills & New England Patriots

Dave Essler
C Saints +6

Doc's Sports

F Lions +3
D Raiders/Cowboys Under 51.5

Dr Bob
A Dallas/Las Vegas Over 51.5
A Buffalo TT Over 26.5 or play the game OVER 45 as alternativeBuffalo /New Orleans Over 45 ( alternative to play above)

Elite Sports Picks
Mississippi/Mississippi State Under 64

Fat Jack
Bears
Saints

Gambling God Sports Picks

Las Vegas +7.5
San Jose State+7.5

Harry Bondi
D Buffalo
C Mississippi

H&H Sports
C Bills -5
C Cowboys -7 [-120]
A Lions +3
C Mississippi State/Mississippi Over 64

Hitman
B Buffalo -4

Indian Cowboy
E
Raiders/Cowboys Over 51.5

Insider Sports Report
D Mississippi State -2
C Dallas -7.5
C Buffalo/New Orleans Over 45.5

Larry Hartstein
Buffalo -4.5
Detroit +3

Las Vegas Pipeline
Bears

Matt Severance
Buffalo -6

Micah Roberts
Buffalo -6
Detroit +3

National Sports Service
D Chicago/Detroit Under 41
C Las Vegas/Dallas Over 51.5

Northcoast
B Chicago/Detroit Under 42
Top Opinions
Las Vegas +8 (marq)
Mississippi/Mississippi State Over 52 (marq)
Mississippi State -1.5
Regular Opinions
Chicago -3 Detroit
Fresno State/San Jose State Under 52.5
Las Vegas/Dallas Under 50.5
Had to Pick’em
Fresno State 7.5
Buffalo -6
Buffalo/New Orleans Over 45.5

Pickswise Sports
C Saints/Bills Under 45.5
B Lions/Bears Under 41.5
B Raiders/Cowboys Under 51

Primetime Sports Picks
D Mississippi State -2
C Fresno State -7.5

RJ White
Chicago -3.5
Dallas/Las Vegas Under 51.5
Buffalo/New Orleans Under 45.5

SportsAnalytics 24/7
B Mississippi State ml -130
A+ Saints/Bills Under 46 -130

Sports Betting Guru
Dayton +5.5
Saints +6

Sports Handicapper King
Bears -3
San Diego -2.5
San Diego State -6

Steve Budin
Chicago Bears

Steve Fezzik
C Detroit +3

The Blackwell Call
J Detroit Lions

Top Rank Sports Picks
E Buffalo/New Orleans Over 45.5
C Fresno State./San Jose State Over 52.5

Wise Guy Team
A Lions +3
B Raiders +7.5
B Iona +11.5
E Mississippi +2.5
E Bills -6.5
 
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Greg Hoops Peterson (All I have so far from him)

Louisville Cardinals vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1, 133)


Louisville will be without coach Chris Mack, as he is finishing up a six-game suspension. Without him, the team already has a home loss on their ledger to Furman. The Cardinals will look to keep a Mississippi State bunch that is sixth in the country in the country in rebound rate and has to try to score on a defense that is allowing opponents to shoot just 37.6 percent on 2-point shots, which ranks fifth in the country against Division I teams. Mississippi State is generating a steal on 15.9 percent of possessions on defense, which ranks sixth in the country, while Louisville is 192nd in the country in turnovers per possession. With Michigan State transfer Rocket Watts getting healthy and playing limited minutes after missing Mississippi State’s first two games this season, and with Louisville having just one player averaging more than nine points per game, the Bulldogs will be celebrating Thanksgiving with a win in the Bahamas.

Pick: Mississippi State -1

Any Kelso or Big AL plays? TIA
 

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HITMAN | NFL Prop - Thursday, Nov 25 2021 12:30PM
Goff U

(-115)William Hill 105 CHI vs 106 DET single-dime bet

Analysis:
Jared Goff (DET) U214.5 Pass Yds -115 (Kambi/Consensus)

Since Dan Campbell took over play calling for the Lions, the Lions have combined for 131 yards passing in regulation in two games against the Steelers and the Browns. Dan Campbell has openly spoke of how he felt the need to protect Jared Goff in the Steelers game due to his injury, and he comes into today's game far from 100% healthy. In a game script that should theortetically remain neutral based off the current 3 point spread, I expect more conservative play calling from Campbell.
 

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1,000 Dimes NFL Lions +3

2,000 Dimes NFL Raiders +7.5

2,000 Dimes CBB Iona +11.5

5,000 Dimes CFB Mississippi +2.5

5,000 Dimes NFL Bills -6.5
 

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From The Swami site:

10 Top Side Play · [106] Detroit Lions
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The Blackwell Call Thu Nov 25th, 2021 12:30pm EST

17-12 on NFL sides this year.
 

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