CNOTES COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2021-2022 NEWS/TRENDS/BEST BETS THRU NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP !

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DECEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date W-L-T % Units Record

12/04/2021............26-16-2...........61.36%............+42.00
12/03/2021...............9-9-0............50.00%..............-4.50
12/02/2021............10-10-0............50.00%.............- 5.00
12/01/2021............37-20-0............64.91%............+75.00

TOTALS..................82-55-0............59.85%..........+107.50

**************************

BEST BETS:

12/04/2021........19-9-0...............67.85%............+45.50
12/03/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/02/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/01/2021.........13-11-0............54.16%.............+ 4.50

TOTALS...............42-34-0............55.26%.............+23.00


UPDATED 12/04/2021
 

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Armadillo Sports

Sunday’s 6-pack:

College football leaders in passing yardage:
5,545— Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky
4,449— Will Rogers, Mississippi State
4,444— Brennan Armstrong, Virginia
4,186— Carson Strong, Nevada
4,066— Kenny Pickett, Pitt
3,901— Bryce Young, Alabama

Quote of the Day
“……I think we had a tremendous amount of respect for Georgia, their team and what they accomplished. But you guys gave us a lot of really positive rat poison. The rat poison that you usually give us is usually fatal, but the rat poison that you put out there this week was yummy.’’
Nick Saban, talking about Alabama being an underdog Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
Chargers drafted QB Justin Herbert with 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft; which two QB’s were taken ahead of him?

Saturday’s quiz
Maryland won national title in basketball 20 years ago; Gary Williams was their coach.

Friday’s quiz
Hakeem Olajuwon was 1st pick in the 1984 NBA Draft; Michael Jordan was the 3rd pick. Sam Bowie was the second pick, by Portland

*****************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Cincinnati 35, Houston 20:
— Bearcats finish 12-0; they damn well better make the college football playoff.
— Cincinnati scored 35 points, despite going 0-8 on third down.
— Bearcats outscored Houston 21-0 in third quarter.

12) Alabama 41, Georgia 24:
— Alabama was an underdog for first time in 93 games.
— Crimson Tide beat Georgia last year, too, also by 41-24 score.
— Alabama averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt (421 passing yards)

11) Alabama 91, Gonzaga 82:
— Big day for the Crimson Tide athletic department.
— Gonzaga lost two of last three games; their schedule eases up now.
— Zags were only 13-25 on foul line.

10) Michigan 42, Iowa 3:
— Jim Harbaugh banks $1.7M in bonuses by winning this game.
— The thing is, Harbaugh has already said he’ll give that money back to the school, to give to university employees who took a pay cut after the pandemic last year.
— This is Michigan’s first league championship since 2004.
— Michigan scored a TD with 1:25 left; I’m guessing that’ll be remembered.

9) Baylor 21, Oklahoma State 16:
— OSU had seven plays inside 2-yard line on two series, scored only 3 points.
— Cowboys’ last play ended just inside the Baylor 1-yard line.
— Baylor QB Shapen completed his first 17 passes.
— Baylor is 11-2 this year; they were 2-7 last year.

8) Texas-San Antonio 49, Western Kentucky 41:
— Roadrunners beat WKU twice this year, 52-46/49-41
— In between, Hilltoppers won seven straight games.
— WKU QB Zappe threw for 577 yards, four TDs in losing cause.

7) Louisiana 24, Appalachian State 16:
— Ragin’ Cajuns beat WKU twice this year, 41-13/24-16
— In between, App State won six straight games.
— App State completed only 12 of 30 passes.

6) Colorado State 74, Saint Mary’s 58:
— Second top 100 win for 9-0 Rams.
— Rams made 9-16 on arc; they never trailed.
— Saint Mary’s is still 8-2, with three top 100 wins.

5) Ole Miss 67, Memphis 63:
— Memphis lost its last three games, after 5-0 start.
— Tigers are turning ball over 25.5% of time (#351)
— Ole Miss was 8-26 on arc, 10-25 inside arc.

4) Loyola 68, DePaul 64:
— These Chicago rivals met for first time since in nine years.
— Loyola is far and away best team in the MVC.
— DePaul is 6-1, but against schedule #323.

3) USC 63, Washington State 61:
— Trojans shot 59.5% inside arc.
— Wazzu led 52-47 with 7:07 left in game.
— Both these teams will be in the NCAA tournament.

2) Three college basketball teams lost Saturday, after leading by 16+ points:
— UMass 87, Harvard 77
— Marshall 72, Duquesne 71
— VCU 65, Campbell 61

1) If the college football top 4 isn’t:
Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Michigan in some order, then the system is corrupt.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, December 5

Northwestern @ Maryland

— Northwestern (5-2) ranked #41 by KenPom
— Tempo: #237
— Experience: #205
— Continuity: #108
— Northwestern is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 4-5 points.
— Wildcats’ best win: 78-62 over #162 Georgia
— Northwestern has four wins over teams #253 or lower.
— Wildcats are shooting 37.9% on arc (#42)
— Northwestern’s schedule, to this point: #324
— bench minutes: #94

— Maryland (5-3) ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #152
— Experience: #129
— Continuity: #205
— This is Maryland first game since they fired their coach.
— Terrapins lost last two games, scoring 55-58 points.
— Maryland is shooting 26.8% on arc (#328)
— Terrapins’ best win: 86-80 over #64 Richmond.
— Maryland’s schedule, to this point: #151
— bench minutes: #257

— Maryland won five of last six series games.
— Wildcats lost last five visits here, last three by 16-18-9 points.

Fairfield @ Niagara
— Fairfield (4-3, 1-0) ranked #212 by KenPom
— Tempo: #315
— Experience: #101
— Continuity: #4
— Fairfield is 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
— Stags won last two road games, at Sacred Heart/Canisius.
— Fairfield is shooting 36% on arc (#89)
— All three of their losses are by 8 or fewer points.
— Fairfield’s schedule, to this point: #216
— bench minutes: #149

— Niagara (3-4, 0-1) ranked #207 by KenPom
— Tempo: #338
— Experience: #53
— Continuity: #177
— Niagara is 2-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
— Eagles are shooting 46.9% inside arc (#246)
— Niagara allowed 60 or less points in its three wins.
— Eagles shot 31.5% from floor in Friday’s loss to Monmouth.
— Niagara’s schedule, to this point: #109
— bench minutes: #251

— Niagara won four of last five series games.
— Stags lost last four visits here, by 12-5-9-17 points.

Monmouth @ Canisius
— Monmouth (6-1, 1-0) ranked #153 by KenPom
— Tempo: #127
— Experience: #10
— Continuity: #162
— Monmouth has won six in row, with win at #72 Cincinnati.
— Hawks are shooting 39.8% on arc (#18), 85% on line (#1)
— Monmouth’s only loss; 68-66 at #231 Charlotte.
— Hawks have #24 eFG% defense.
— Monmouth’s schedule, to this point: #181
— bench minutes: #344

— Canisius (2-6, 0-1) ranked #276 by KenPom
— Tempo: #112
— Experience: #80
— Continuity: #21
— Canisius’ only D-I win: 76-75 over #314 Coppin State.
— Griffins are shooting 43% inside arc (#321)
— Opponents are shooting 58% inside arc (#339)
— Five of their six losses were by 9+ points.
— Canisius’ schedule, to this point: #154
— bench minutes: #194

— Monmouth won last five series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here.

Quinnipiac @ Manhattan
— Quinnipiac (3-4, 0-1) ranked #280 by KenPom
— Tempo: #43
— Experience: #141
— Continuity: #79
— Quinnipiac lost last three games, by 15-11-10 points.
— Bobcats are shooting 29.6% on arc (#283)
— 47.2% of Quinnipiac’s shots are 3’s.
— Bobcats’ two D-I wins are over teams #344/#348.
— Quinnipiac’s schedule, to this point: #328
— bench minutes: #157

— Manhattan (6-1, 1-0) ranked #236 by KenPom
— Tempo: #223
— Experience: #1
— Continuity: #41
— Manhattan won four in row, three by 5 or fewer points.
— Jaspers are turning ball over 23.6% of time (#329)
— Jaspers are forcing turnovers 22.6% of time (#49)
— Manhattan’s only loss: 79-58 at #183 Old Dominion.
— Manhattan’s schedule, to this point: #317
— bench minutes: #256

— Manhattan won four of last five series games.
— Bobcats lost five of last six visits here.

Siena @ Saint Peter’s
— Siena (2-6, 0-1) ranked #300 by KenPom
— Tempo: #321
— Experience: #79
— Continuity: #294
— Siena’s last two losses were both in overtime.
— Saints also have four losses by 18+ points.
— Siena has #285 eFG% defense.
— Saints played three starters 34:00+ in Friday’s OT loss.
— Siena’s schedule, to this point: #204
— bench minutes: #96

— Saint Peter’s (2-3, 1-0) ranked #174 by KenPom
— Tempo: #139
— Experience: #184
— Continuity: #28
— Saint Peter’s is 2-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— Peacocks are turning ball over 22.6% of time (#313)
— Peacocks are forcing turnovers 23.4% of time (#37)
— Saint Peter’s have #291 eFG% in country.
— Saint Peter’s schedule, to this point: #61
— bench minutes: #130

— Teams split last ten series games.
— Saints lost last ten visits to Jersey City.

Minnesota @ Mississippi State
— Minnesota (6-0) ranked #98 by KenPom
— Tempo: #228
— Experience: #21
— Continuity: #343
— Minnesota has three wins by 4 or less points, or in OT.
— Last three games, Gophers gave up 48.7 ppg.
— Minnesota has #10 eFG% defense in country.
— Gophers have only one player who was a Gopher LY.
— Minnesota’s schedule, to this point: #328
— bench minutes: #266

— Mississippi State (6-1) ranked #42 by KenPom
— Tempo: #335
— Experience: #232
— Continuity: #254
— Mississippi State is 3-1 vs top 200 teams.
— Bulldogs’ one loss: 72-58 to #37 Louisville.
— Bulldogs’ best win: 82-71 in OT over #64 Richmond.
— Mississippi State is grabbing 37.6% of its misses (#12)
— Mississippi State’s schedule, to this point: #269
— bench minutes: #211
 

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North Carolina @ Georgia Tech
— North Carolina (5-2) ranked #36 by KenPom
— Tempo: #84
— Experience: #244
— Continuity: #86
— North Carolina beat #18 Michigan by 21 in its last game.
— Tar Heels won only true road game by 11 at Charleston.
— North Carolina’s two losses are to top 10 teams.
— Tar Heels are making 41.5% of their 3’s (#10)
— North Carolina’s schedule, to this point: #94
— bench minutes: #221

— Georgia Tech (5-2) ranked #69 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #169
— Continuity: #165
— Georgia Tech lost its one top 100 game, 70-66 to #27 Wisconsin.
— Yellow Jackets won five of their last six games.
— Georgia Tech’s best win: 88-78 at #162 Georgia
— Yellow Jackets are shooting 40.7% on arc (#16)
— Georgia Tech’s schedule, to this point: #309
— bench minutes: #206

— North Carolina won nine of last 11 series games.
— Tar Heels won four of last five visits here.

Arizona @ Oregon State
— Arizona (6-0) ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #23
— Experience: #355
— Continuity: #190
— Arizona has top 100 wins over Wichita State/Michigan.
— Opponents are shooting 35.9% inside arc (#1)
— Arizona is shooting 59% inside arc (#7)
— This is Wildcats’ first true road game.
— Arizona’s schedule, to this point: #295
— bench minutes: #80

— Oregon State (1-7, 0-1) ranked #32 by KenPom
— Tempo: #161
— Experience: #103
— Continuity: #113
— OSU lost its last seven games, four by 6 or less points.
— Beavers are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10-3-15 points.
— OSU is shooting 28.5% on arc (#308)
— Beavers’ only win: 73-64 over #250 Portland State.
— Oregon State’s schedule, to this point: #101
— bench minutes: #45

— Arizona won 10 of last 11 series games.
— Wildcats won four of last six visits to Corvallis.

California @ Utah
— California (4-4, 1-0) ranked #114 by KenPom
— Tempo: #306
— Experience: #66
— Continuity: #78
— California won last two games, giving up 57-61 points.
— Golden Bears lost only true road game, 55-52 at #149 UNLV
— California is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-3 points.
— Golden Bears are shooting 47.3% inside arc (#230)
— California’s schedule, to this point: #106
— bench minutes: #267

— Utah (5-2) ranked #70 by KenPom
— Tempo: #172
— Experience: #115
— Continuity: #306
— Utah is 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— Utes’ two losses were both to top 25 teams.
— Utah has #35 eFG% defense in country.
— Utes’ best win: 68-61 over #113 Boston College.
— Utah’s schedule, to this point: #176
— bench minutes: #98

— Utah won four of last six series games.
— Cal lost five of its last six visits to Utah.

Arizona State @ Oregon
— Arizona State (2-6, 0-1) ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #190
— Experience: #236
— Continuity: #317
— ASU lost its last five games.
— Sun Devils lost 51-29 Friday, shooting 21.1% from floor.
— ASU has #285 eFG% in country.
— Sun Devils’ two wins are over teams #261/#296
— Arizona State’s schedule, to this point: #40
— bench minutes: #75

— Oregon (5-3) ranked #48 by KenPom
— Tempo: #304
— Experience: #89
— Continuity: #299
— Oregon lost three of four top 100 games.
— Ducks’ best win: 86-63 over #79 SMU
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Oregon has #287 eFG% defense in country.
— Ducks scored 49-50-49 points in their losses.
— Oregon’s schedule, to this point: #65
— bench minutes: #230

— Oregon won 13 of last 15 series games.
— ASU lost its last eight visits to Eugene.

Ohio State at Penn State
— Ohio State (5-2) ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #256
— Experience: #181
— Continuity: #199
— Ohio State split last four games, all vs top 40 teams.
— Buckeyes lost only road game, 71-65 at #34 Xavier.
— Ohio State upset then-#1 Duke in last game, Tuesday.
— Buckeyes have #36 eFG% in country.
— Ohio State’s schedule to this point: #18
— bench minutes: #93

— Penn State (4-3) ranked #85 by KenPom
— Tempo: #352
— Experience: #7
— Continuity: #202
— Penn State is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 5-5 points.
— PSU’s only top 200 win: 60-45 over #126 Oregon State
— Penn State is shooting 55.4% inside arc (#42)
— Opponents are shooting 44.2% inside arc (#48)
— Penn State’s schedule, to this point: #199
— bench minutes: #343

— Ohio State won four of last five series games.
— Buckeyes won nine of last 11 visits to Happy Valley.

Xavier @ Oklahoma State
— Xavier (6-1) ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #135
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #105
— Xavier won two of its three top 100 games.
— Musketeers’ only loss: 82-70 to #65 Iowa State
— Xavier has #21 eFG% defense in country.
— Musketeers are turning ball over 21.2% of time (#268)
— Xavier’s schedule, to this point: #186
— bench minutes: #112

— Oklahoma State (6-2) ranked #43 by KenPom
— Tempo: #144
— Experience: #234
— Continuity: #66
— Oklahoma State is forcing turnovers 27.1% of time (#7)
— Cowboys were held to 55-51 points in their losses.
— Oklahoma State’s best win: 74-68 over #74 NC State.
— Cowboys are shooting 29.1% on arc (#295), 65.7% on line (#292)
— Oklahoma State’s schedule, to this point: #224
— bench minutes: #28

Kansas State @ Wichita State
— Kansas State (4-2) ranked #73 by KenPom
— Tempo: #239
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #148
— K-State is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing both 72-64.
— Wildcats don’t have a win over team ranked higher than #289.
— K-State has #11 eFG% in country.
— This is Wildcats’ first true road game.
— Kansas State’s schedule, to this point: #343
— bench minutes: #66

— Wichita State (6-1) ranked #51 by KenPom
— Tempo: #188
— Experience: #312
— Continuity: #94
— Wichita State won last three games, giving up 59.7 ppg.
— Shockers’ one loss: 82-78 in OT to #20 Arizona.
— Wichita State forces turnovers 25.3% of time (#13)
— Shockers’ best win: 60-51 at #43 Oklahoma State
— Wichita State’s schedule, to this point: #79
— bench minutes: #106
 

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NCAAB

Sunday, December 5


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Trend Report
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EK13tcs.png



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Gridiron Angles - Week 13
Vince Akins

NFL Play ON ATS Trend:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS since 2019 at home facing a team that is under .500 past week 4 of the season.

NFL Play AGAINST ATS Trend:
Matchup: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Lions are 0-10 ATS since December 2016 as a dog with more than three days rest coming off a loss where they allowed fewer points than expected.

NFL Play OVER OU Trend:
Matchup: Washington at Las Vegas (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Raiders are 9-0 OU since November 2015 when they are not more than three-point underdogs and are coming off a win as an underdog.

NFL Play UNDER OU Trend:
Matchup: Denver at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET)

-- The Broncos are 0-16 OU since December 2017 coming off a win by at least seven points. This is 0-5 OU in 2021.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
 

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 5
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


NW at MD 12:00 PM
NW +5.5
+500

MONM at CAN 01:00 PM
MONM -5.5
+500

UMBC at DEL 02:00 PM
UMBC +6.0
O 147.5

+500 +500

QUIN at MAN 02:00 PM
MAN -5.5
+500

VALP at WMU 02:00 PM
O 136.0
+500

WIU at CMU 02:00 PM
WIU -5.5
+500

DEN at TXST 02:00 PM
TXST -14.0
+500

DETU at UIC 02:00 PM
DETU +1.0
+500

VMI at SEA 04:00 PM
SEA -7.0
U 146.0

+500 +500

CHAT at LIP 05:00 PM
LIP +6.5
O 135.5

+500 +500

CAL at UTAH 05:00 PM
CAL +8.5
+500
 

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DECEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date W-L-T % Units Record

12/05/2021...............6-8-0...........42.86% .............-14.00
12/04/2021............26-16-2...........61.36%............+42.00
12/03/2021...............9-9-0............50.00%..............-4.50
12/02/2021............10-10-0............50.00%.............- 5.00
12/01/2021............37-20-0............64.91%............+75.00

TOTALS..................88-63-0............58.27%..........+ 93.50

**************************

BEST BETS:

12/05/2021..........3-7-0...............30.00%............-23.50
12/04/2021........19-9-0...............67.85%............+45.50
12/03/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/02/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/01/2021.........13-11-0............54.16%.............+ 4.50

TOTALS...............45-41-0............52.32%..............- 0.50


UPDATED 12/05/2021
 

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Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack:

Some of the more interesting bowl spreads:
— Alabama (-13.5) vs Cincinnati
— Georgia (-7.5) vs Michigan
— Utah (-6.5) vs Ohio State
— Ole Miss (-1.5) vs Baylor
— Oklahoma (-4) vs Oregon
— Tennessee (-1.5) vs Purdue

Quote of the Day
“Today was a little bit uneven at times, but our guys played extremely hard, We were outstanding against the run, against a really, really good back. I thought we defended in the passing game. I really thought we rushed the quarterback at a high level. It was all hands on deck in the pass rush.”
Chargers coach Brandon Staley

Monday’s quiz
Ben Roethlisberger and Sean McVay went to the same college; which one?

Sunday’s quiz
Chargers drafted QB Justin Herbert with 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft; Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa were taken ahead of him.

Saturday’s quiz
Maryland won national title in basketball 20 years ago; Gary Williams was their coach.

**********************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Detroit 29, Minnesota 27:

— Vikings scored TD with 1:53 left to take 27-23 lead.
— Goff hit St Brown with 11-yard TD pass at 0:00 for the win.
— 11 of Vikings’ 12 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Over is 6-1 in Vikings road games this year.
— Minnesota has been outscored 103-28 in last 2:00 of each half.

— Minnesota has led by 6+ points in every game this year.
— Detroit is 1-10-1, but is 8-4 ATS (5-1 last six).
— Detroit converted only 2-11 third down plays.
— Lions’ last four games were decided by total of seven points.
— Detroit won this game despite questionable game management strategy.

Arizona 33, Chicago 22:
— Cardinals had three TD drives shorter than 30 yards.
— Arizona was +4 in turnovers, had 23-yard edge in field position.
— Cardinals are 9-3 ATS this season, 7-0 on road.
— Cardinals are +15 in turnovers in wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Arizona has 51 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 29.

— Bears lost six of their last seven games (1-6 ATS).
— Last six games, Chicago was outscored 92-39 in first half.
— Last seven games, Bears are minus-11 in turnovers.
— Favorites won/covered all six Chicago home games TY.
— Bears are 5-9 ATS last 14 games as home underdogs.

Tampa Bay 30, Atlanta 17:
— Tampa Bay scared 30-38-30 points in winning last three games.
— Bucs drove 75 yards for TD on three of first four drives.
— Bucs have 46 TD’s on 126 drives this season.
— Tampa Bay outscored last three opponents 47-7 in 2nd half.
— Bucs won last five series games, scoring 37.2 ppg.

— Atlanta is 0-5 SU at home this year, outscored 140-66.
— Falcons in second half: 34 plays, 159 yards, no points.
— Falcons’ second TD was scored by the defense.
— Atlanta has been outscored 186-89 in second half.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.

Indianapolis 31, Houston 0:
— Colts won/covered seven of last ten games, after 0-3 start.
— Colts outgained Houston 389-141.
— Last four weeks, Indy led by 18-11-17-10-14 points at halftime.
— Last ten weeks, Colts outscored opponents 167-75 in first half.
— Colts are 6-0 giving up 24 or fewer points, 1-6 if they allow 25+.

— Texans lost ten of their last eleven games.
— Houston averaged 1.8 yards/pass attempt, was 3-12 on third down.
— Colts outscored Texans 61-3 in two meetings this season.
— Last seven games, Houston was outscored 93-37 in 1st half.
— Under is 8-2 in Texans’ last ten games.

Philadelphia 33, NJ Jets 18:
— Eagles scored TD on first three drives, kicked FG’s on next four.
— Philly ran ball for 211.8 ypg last six games (98.6 ypg previous five games)
— Minshew averaged 8.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Philly converted 6-13 on 3rd down, Jets 3-9.
— Last five weeks, Eagles outscored opponents 98-45 in first half.

— Jets’ first three drives: 25 plays, 164 yards, three TD’s
— Jets went 0-1 on PAT’s, 0-2 on 2-point conversions.
— Rest of game: 31 plays, 113 yards, no points.
— Jets lost four of their last five games.
— Seven of last nine Jet games went over the total.

LA Chargers 41, Cincinnati 22:
— Chargers’ first 3 drives: 18 plays, 132 yards, 17 points.
— Bolts led 24-0; Bengals cut lead to 24-22 early in 4th quarter.
— Campbell ran fumble back 61 yards for Charger TD with 13:43 left.
— Last five years, LA is 12-7-2 ATS as road underdogs.

— Burrow played lot of game with dislocated pinky on his right hand
— Cincy had only one TD drive longer than 32 yards.
— Four of last five Bengal games went over the total.
— Bengals are 7-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-4 otherwise.
— Cincy is 8-11-2 ATS last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Last three years, Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Five of last six Bengal games went over the total.

Miami 20, NY Giants 9:
— Giants have one TD on 20 drives since they fired OC Garrett.
— Giants have been outscored 74-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Giants are 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games coming off a win.
— Last six Giant games stayed under the total.
— QB Glennon got concussion; newly acquired Fromm could play next week.

— Dolphins won/covered last five games, giving up 11.0 ppg.
— Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in all six of their wins.
— Miami gave up four TDs on opponents’ last 58 drives.
— Miami is 23-12-3 ATS in last 37 home games.
— Five of last six Dolphin games stayed under the total.

Washington 17, Las Vegas 15:
— Johnson kicked 48-yard FG with 0:37 left for the win.
— Washington won all four games since its bye.
— Washington converted 29 of last 58 third down plays.
— Washington is 9-4-1 ATS last 14 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Washington is 14-7 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.

— Las Vegas is 6-0 when it scores 26+ points, 0-6 when it does not.
— Washington was 7-13 on third down, Raiders 2-8
— Raiders converted only 18 of last 69 third down plays.
— Las Vegas is 3-6 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Raiders lost four of last five games, outscored 89-48 in second half.

LA Rams 37, Jacksonville 7:
— Jaguars lost four in row, 25 of their last 27 games.
— Jacksonville has seven losses by 10+ points.
— Jaguars have six TD’s on their last 48 drives.
— Jacksonville is minus-13 in turnovers (5-18)
— Jaguars are 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games as road underdogs.

— Rams’ first two drives started at Jaguars’ 34/27-yard line.
— Rams’ first three drives in 2nd half: 24 plays, 202 yards, 21 points.
— LA outgained Jacksonville, 418-197
— Last eight games, LA converted only 33-95 on 3rd down
— Last two years, under is 10-4 in Rams’ home games.

Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 19:
— Ravens scored TD with 0:12 left, went for 2 points but failed.
— Last four weeks, Baltimore scored 10-16-16-19 points.
— Five trips to red zone, Ravens scored only 19 points.
— Last four Baltimore games stayed under the total.
— Underdogs are 11-1-1 ATS in last 13 games vs Steelers.

— Steelers drove 69 yards, took lead for good with 1:48 left.
— Pittsburgh held Ravens to 107 rushing yards.
— Last five games, Pittsburgh converted 33-69 on third down.
— Pittsburgh covered last six games as a home underdog.
— Steelers are 6-2 ATS in last eight AFC North home games.

Seattle 30, San Francisco 23:
— 49ers led 17-7 midway thru second quarter.
— 49ers in first half: 30 plays, 184 yards, 23 points.
— 49ers In second half: 26 plays, 137 yards, no points.
— San Francisco averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt.
— 49ers are 1-5 SU when they score fewer than 30 points.

— Seattle tied game 23-23 with third quarter safety on a sack.
— Seahawks ran for 146 yards, threw for only 4.4 yards/attempt.
— Seattle won 15 of last 17 games against the 49ers.
— Seahawks had 12-yard edge in field position.
— Both teams turned ball over three times.

Kansas City 22, Denver 9:
— Denver had 20-play, 88-yard drive but didn’t score on it.
— Broncos scored only nine points on three trips to red zone.
— Denver had 3 turnovers, converted 4-14 on third down.
— Denver has lost 11 in a row SU to Kansas City.
— Broncos are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 AFC West road games.

— Chiefs won last five games, giving up 11.2 ppg.
— Kansas City is 6-0 if it allows 17 or less points, 2-4 if they allow more.
— Denver outgained the Chiefs, 404-267, ran 18 more plays than KC.
— Chiefs have ten takeaways in last four games (+6)
— Six of Chiefs’ last seven games stayed under the total.

Sunday’s college basketball highlights:
— Xavier 77, Oklahoma State 71
— Northwestern 67, Maryland 61
— Kansas State 65, Wichita State 59
— Minnesota 81, Mississippi State 76
— Siena 60, Saint Peter’s 58
 

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TEXAS SOUTHERN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

ILLINOIS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

MERCER is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in December games since 1997.

KENT ST is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) at home when the total is 130-134.5 since 1997.

DELAWARE ST is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.

NC CENTRAL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

MOREHEAD ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.

COLUMBIA is 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the last 3 seasons.

NEW MEXICO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

PEPPERDINE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 6

Illinois @ Iowa

— Illinois (6-2, 1-0) ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #157
— Experience: #122
— Continuity: #165
— Illinois won its last four games, scoring 83.5 ppg.
— Illini is 3-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Marquette/Cincinnati.
— Illinois is turning ball over 22.3% of time (#308)
— Illini is grabbing 39.6% of its missed shots (#8)
— Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #138
— bench minutes: #74

— Iowa (7-1, 0-1) ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #36
— Experience: #241
— Continuity: #184
— Iowa lost its conference opener 77-70 at Purdue.
— Hawkeyes’ best win: 75-74 at #49 Virginia.
— Iowa has #19 eFG% in country.
— Six of Iowa’s seven wins were against teams outside top 200.
— Iowa’s schedule, to this point: #339
— bench minutes: #1

— Purdue won four of last five series games.
— Team split last four meetings played here.

Mercer @ Coastal Carolina
— Mercer (5-4) ranked #203 by KenPom
— Tempo: #304
— Experience: #101
— Continuity: #189
— Mercer won last two D-I games, by 2-6 points.
— 44.1% of Bears’ shots are 3’s (#64)
— Mercer is 1-3 vs top 200 teams (beat #126 Georgia St 83-77)
— Bears have #331 eFG% defense in country.
— Mercer’s schedule, to this point: #123
— bench minutes: #328

— Coastal Carolina (4-2) ranked #196 by KenPom
— Tempo: #141
— Experience: #66
— Continuity: #175
— Coastal won its last two games, giving up 60 ppg.
— Chanticleers’ best win: 80-56 over #108 South Carolina.
— Coastal is shooting 26.5% on arc (#335)
— Chanticleers’ losses: 65-53 at #286 UNCW, 79-70 vs #118 Toledo.
— Coastal Carolina’s schedule, to this point: #207
— bench minutes: #287

Towson @ Kent State
— Towson (5-3) ranked #177 by KenPom
— Tempo: #309
— Experience: #118
— Continuity: #254
— Towson is 0-3 vs top 200 teams, losing by 8-4-10 points.
— Tigers are shooting 29.2% on arc (#294)
— Towson’s best win: 76-61 over #217 Penn
— Tigers are grabbing 36.5% of their misses (#22)
— Towson’s schedule, to this point: #305
— bench minutes: #259

— Kent State (4-2) ranked #137 by KenPom
— Tempo: #263
— Experience: #184
— Continuity: #95
— This is Kent State’s first D-I game in 12 days.
— Flashes’ best win: 74-69 over #174 James Madison
— Kent State is #327 team in country on defensive boards.
— Flashes are turning ball over 22% of time (#302)
— Kent State’s schedule, to this point: #96
— bench minutes: #346

New Mexico State @ New Mexico
— New Mexico State (6-2) ranked #114 by KenPom
— Tempo: #294
— Experience: #190
— Continuity: #213
— State is shooting 55.6% inside arc (#39)
— Aggies gave up 85-101 points in their two losses.
— State’s best win: 75-64 over #66 Davidson.
— Aggies were 9-31 on arc vs New Mexico, which was 8-20
— New Mexico State’s schedule, to this point: #128
— bench minutes: #240

— New Mexico (5-3) ranked #245 by KenPom
— Tempo: #4
— Experience: #310
— Continuity: #339
— New Mexico is forcing turnovers 21.7% of time (#74)
— Lobos are shooting 38.1% on arc (#34)
— New Mexico’s best win: 101-94 at New Mexico State last week.
— Lobos are #345 team in country on defensive boards.
— New Mexico’s schedule, to this point: #148
— bench minutes: #291

— Lobos beat New Mexico State 101-94 in Las Cruces last week.
— Lobos were 35-42 on foul line, Aggies 27-35
— New Mexico won last three series games.

San Jose State @ Pepperdine
— San Jose State (4-3) ranked #295 by KenPom
— Tempo: #285
— Experience: #264
— Continuity: #265
— San Jose won its last three games, giving up 59 ppg.
— Spartans are shooting 41.1% on arc (#11)
— San Jose is shooting only 58.4% on foul line (#352)
— Spartans’ best win: 75-74 over #182 Northern Colorado.
— San Jose State’s schedule, to this point: #223
— bench minutes: #151

— Pepperdine’s (2-8) ranked #227 by KenPom
— Tempo: #124
— Experience: #261
— Continuity: #282
— Pepperdine lost last six games, all to teams in top 130
— Waves are shooting 45% inside arc (#282)
— Pepperdine is turning ball over 21.2% of time (#267)
— Waves’ best win: 72-67 over #211 Cal-Davis
— Pepperdine’s schedule, to this point: #102
— bench minutes: #332
 

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Iowa has covered the spread in four of its last six home games.
Iowa has covered the spread in four of its last six games when playing as the favorite.
Illinois has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight games.
Iowa has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games.
 

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 6
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


TOWS at KENT 07:00 PM
TOWS +6.5
+500

DSU at LIB 07:00 PM
LIB -22.5
+500

CLMB at COLG 07:00 PM
O 148.5
+500

PRE at MORE 07:00 PM
PRE +11.0
+500

MER at CCU 07:00 PM
MER +2.0
+500

ILL at IOWA 07:00 PM
IOWA -3.0
O 150.5

+500 +500

NCCU at CIT 07:00 PM
U 149.0
+500

ALCN at HOU 08:00 PM
ALCN +32.5
+500

NMSU at UNM 09:00 PM
U 151.0
+500

SJSU at PEPP 10:00 PM
SJSU +4.5
+500
 

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DECEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

Date W-L-T % Units Record

12/06/2021...............8-3-0...........72.73%.............+23.50
12/05/2021...............6-8-0...........42.86% .............-14.00
12/04/2021............26-16-2...........61.36%............+42.00
12/03/2021...............9-9-0............50.00%..............-4.50
12/02/2021............10-10-0............50.00%.............- 5.00
12/01/2021............37-20-0............64.91%............+75.00

TOTALS..................96-66-0............59.25%...........+ 117.00

**************************

BEST BETS:

12/06/2021..........6-2-0...............75.00%............+19.00
12/05/2021..........3-7-0...............30.00%.............-23.50
12/04/2021........19-9-0...............67.85%............+45.50
12/03/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/02/2021..........5-7-0...............41.66%.............-13.50
12/01/2021.........13-11-0............54.16%.............+ 4.50

TOTALS...............51-43-0............54.25%.............+18.50


UPDATED 12/06/2021
 

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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack:

Six interesting NFL spreads for Week 14:
— Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (-3)
— New Orleans (-5.5) @ NJ Jets
— San Francisco @ Cincinnati (-1)
— Baltimore @ Cleveland (-2.5)
— Atlanta @ Carolina (-3)
— Dallas (-4) @ Washington

Quote of the Day
“Everybody’s trying to get to the NBA off the ranking we had, but nobody is willing to sacrifice minutes, touches, anything. It’s been miserable…I’m going to have to be a complete asshole from this point on and only play the players that care.”
Memphis basketball coach Penny Hardaway

Tuesday’s quiz
Peyton Manning was the first pick in the 1998 NFL Draft; which former Chargers’ QB was the second pick in that draft?

Monday’s quiz
Ben Roethlisberger and Sean McVay went to the same college, Miami OH. Roethlisberger is actually four years older than the Rams’ coach.

Sunday’s quiz
Chargers drafted QB Justin Herbert with 6th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft; Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa were taken ahead of him.

************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

12) Purdue Boilermakers are #1 in country in college basketball, first time they’ve ever been atop the national rankings. Purdue made the Final Four in 1969/1980, losing the national title game to UCLA in 1969.

Matt Painter is 15-11 in NCAA Tournament games; lot of time will pass between now and March, but couple of pundits have already picked the Boilermakers to win it all this season.

11) Memphis Tigers lost their last three games, after a 5-0 start; apparently the team doesn’t have good chemistry. coach Penny Hardaway

Freshmen Bates and Duren were the top two recruits in the Class of 2022 and were considered future NBA lottery picks, but they re-classified to Class of ’21 and went to college a year early- they’ve both been starting, which apparently irked the older players on the squad.

Memphis doesn’t have a true point guard; they tried to make the 6-9 Bates a PG, but he isn’t a point guard and now he isn’t even starting anymore- he played 22 minutes off the bench at Ole Miss Saturday.

You can’t force chemistry on a team; having talent is great, but if they don’t play together, it is mostly wasted talent. Will be interesting to see how their season plays out.

10) You watch the New Orleans Saints play and you know they need a quarterback; last time the Saints drafted a QB in the first round was 1971, when they drafted Archie Manning in the first round. Archie was a lot different than his two sons; he played like a right-handed Steve Young, ran around a lot, but he was stuck on a terrible team and mostly got pummeled in the NFL.

But Archie Manning is a legend at Ole Miss; the speed limit on their campus is still 18 miles an hour, because Manning wore number 18 playing for the Rebels.

9) NBA’s Houston Rockets started the season 1-16, losing 15 games in a row, but all of a sudden they’ve gotten hot and won six straight games. Five of those six games went over the total; under was 12-5 in their first 17 games.

Houston plays the Nets Wednesday, which should test that winning streak.

8) Maryland fired basketball coach Mark Turgeon last week; Turgeon went 226-116 at Maryland, 105–79 in conference games, 5-5 in NCAA Tournament games. He signed a contract extension last April, but apparently is getting paid $5M to go away.

Wish the hell someone would pay me $5M to go away; I’d go away for $50, maybe $25.

7) A new bowl game this fall is the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, which will be played December 18 at SoFi Stadium, where Rams/Chargers play.

Kimmel said: ”This is not a joke. This is a real bowl game named after me, so mark your calendars. … It’s like an early Christmas gift for all of us.”

The Super Bowl is at SoFi Stadium this season; the college football national title game is at SoFi in January 2023.

6) There are seven first-time head coaches in the NFL this season; they are a combined 37-48 against the spread.

5) Tony Romo makes $18M a year doing NFL games on CBS? Seriously? Cris Collinsworth makes $12.5M from NBC? If I’m home and hear Collinsworth’s voice on TV, I hit the mute button, he is so annoying.

Romo is good, but he ain’t $18M worth of good. No one is.

4) Feel like this fact fell thru the cracks little bit last week, but it bears repeating; of the last 55 NFL teams who threw 4+ interceptions in a game, Baltimore Ravens in Week 12 are only team that won that game- they beat the Browns 16-10 on a Sunday night game, surviving four INTs thrown by Lamar Jackson, three of them on consecutive possessions.

3) Odd scheduling quirk with Cleveland; they’re playing consecutive games against Baltimore, with their bye week in between. That doesn’t happen much.

2) Carolina Panthers fired OC Joe Brady during their bye week; Brady was the OC at LSU two years ago, when Joe Burrow led the Tigers to the national title, but Carolina has stammered thru this season, and they told Brady to take a hike.

Sounds like head coach Matt Rhule is taking the rap for owner David Tepper here; really rich hedge fund traders aren’t terribly patient people- that’s how Tepper became wealthy, and he is really, really wealthy— $13 billion worth.

Brady is only 32 years old, so he’ll re-surface soon with a big coordinator’s job, probably back at the college level.

1) Weird news item of the day:
A couple has sued Texas Longhorns’ special teams coach Jeff Banks and his girlfriend, saying Thomas’ monkey bit their child in the backyard of Banks’ house on Halloween night.

The girlfriend was identified in the lawsuit as “Pole Assassin” which her stage name when she dances. She once appeared on “The Jerry Springer Show” with the monkey.

Wish I was making all that up, but I’m not that creative.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, December 7

Virginia @ James Madison

— Virginia (6-3) ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #358
— Experience: #179
— Continuity: #257
— Virginia won five of its last six games.
— Cavaliers are 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
— Virginia lost its only true road game, 67-47 at Houston.
— Opponents are shooting 43.1% inside arc (#26)
— Virginia’s schedule, to this point: #199
— bench minutes: #285

— James Madison (7-2) ranked #176 by KenPom
— Tempo: #68
— Experience: #226
— Continuity: #108
— JMU lost only top 100 game, 74-62 to #99 Murray State.
— Dukes are forcing turnovers 23.4% of time.
— JMU has five wins by 5 or fewer points.
— Dukes are shooting 29.6% on arc (#286)
— James Madison’s schedule, to this point: #171
— bench minutes: #117

Oakland @ Bowling Green
— Oakland (7-2) ranked #121 by KenPom
— Tempo: #108
— Experience: #340
— Continuity: #128
— Oakland won last five games, scoring 75.8 ppg.
— Grizzlies’ only losses: #48 West Virginia/#9 Alabama.
— Oakland has #75 eFG% defense in country.
— Grizzlies are shooting 25.5% on arc (#350)
— Oakland’s schedule, to this point: #59
— bench minutes: #356

— Bowling Green (4-4) ranked #171 by KenPom
— Tempo: #40
— Experience: #155
— Continuity: #135
— Bowling Green is 0-2 vs top 200 teams, losing by 31-14 points.
— Falcons are 0-3 when they score less than 75 points.
— Falcons’ best win: 79-70 at #208 Duquesne.
— Bowling Green is shooting 29.7% on arc (#284), 44.9% inside arc (#286)
— Bowling Green’s schedule, to this point: #266
— bench minutes: #6

Old Dominion @ William & Mary
— Old Dominion (4-5) ranked #181 by KenPom
— Tempo: #346
— Experience: #212
— Continuity: #177
— Old Dominion is 2-1 vs teams outside top 200.
— Monarchs’ best win: 60-50 at #155 George Mason.
— Old Dominion is forcing turnovers 21.9% of time (#62)
— Monarchs have #330 eFG% in country.
— Old Dominion’s schedule, to this point: #200
— bench minutes: #274

— William & Mary (1-8) ranked #321 by KenPom
— Tempo: #118
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #178
— W&M is 0-8 vs Division I teams (7 losses by 12+ points)
— Tribe is turning ball over 24.9% of time (#346)
— W&M has #311 eFG% in country.
— Opponents are shooting 56.5% inside arc (#334)
— William & Mary’s schedule, to this point: #130
— bench minutes: #132

Michigan @ Nebraska
— Michigan (5-3) ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #267
— Experience: #290
— Continuity: #248
— Michigan split its last six games.
— Wolverines’ losses are all to top 40 teams.
— Michigan is turning ball over 21% of time (#259)
— Wolverines’ best win: 72-58 over #44 San Diego State.
— Michigan’s schedule, to this point: #30
— bench minutes: #271

— Nebraska (5-4) ranked #102 by KenPom
— Tempo: #57
— Experience: #319
— Continuity: #296
— Nebraska is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 8-4-13 points.
— Cornhuskers lost a game in four overtimes last week.
— Nebraska is forcing turnovers 21.7% of time (#72)
— Cornhuskers are shooting 27.1% on arc (#329)
— Nebraska’s schedule, to this point: #293
— bench minutes: #97

— Michigan won last five series games, all by 11+ points.

Jimmy V Classic
Texas Tech vs Tennessee (Madison Square Garden)

— Texas Tech (6-1) ranked #19 by KenPom
— Tempo: #208
— Experience: #58
— Continuity: #290
— Texas Tech lost only top 100 game, 72-68 at #54 Providence.
— Red Raiders are forcing turnovers 27.8% of time (#5)
— Texas Tech is grabbing 49.2% of its misses (#1)
— Red Raiders’ best win: 84-49 over #242 Prairie View
— Texas Tech’s schedule, to this point: #356
— bench minutes: #3

— Tennessee (6-1) ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #74
— Experience: #296
— Continuity: #205
— Tennessee’s one loss: 71-53 to #6 Villanova.
— Vols’ best win: 89-72 over #29 North Carolina.
— Tennessee is forcing turnovers 23.8% of time (#27)
— Vols won 69-54 at #66 Colorado on Saturday.
— Tennessee’s schedule, to this point: #158
— bench minutes: #29

Villanova vs Syracuse (Madison Square Garden)
— Villanova (6-2) ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #347
— Experience: #65
— Continuity: #59
— Villanova is 1-2 vs teams in top 200.
— Wildcats’ best win: 71-53 over #10 Tennessee.
— Villanova is shooting 42.2% on arc (#7)
— 47.4% of Wildcats’ shots are 3’s.
— Villanova’s schedule, to this point: #84
— bench minutes: #325

— Syracuse (5-3) ranked #57 by KenPom
— Tempo: #88
— Experience: #70
— Continuity: #276
— Syracuse won last two games by total of 5 points.
— Orangemen is 3-2 vs top 100 teams.
— All three Syracuse losses are by 12+ points.
— Opponents are shooting 34.9% on arc (#247)
— Syracuse’s schedule, to this point: #48
— bench minutes: #351
 

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