I am huge (14-22 ytd 39%) week 7 picks and analysis

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iamhuge

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Well…time to get back in the batter’s box because I am headed to Vegas this week. My computer model has been working furiously and, combined with some good information and watching some of these teams closely, I have my 9 favorite picks for the trip:


One of these picks is a RUBBER BAND GAME which I will write up last.

I have made the following wagers on Draftkings today and will beef them up when I get to Sin City…analysis to follow:

SYRACUSE +14 clemson
ARKANSAS -3.5 auburn
Michigan state -3 INDIANA
CINCINNATI -20 ucf
SOUTH FLORIDA +8.5 tulsa
IOWA -12.5 purdue
Toledo -4 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
UTSA -18.5 rice
Colorado state -10 NEW MEXICO

Best of luck to all.
 

iamhuge

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Michigan state -3 INDIANA


It’s time for 6-0 Sparty to make another housecall. this time heading to Bloomington to tackle the fading Hoosiers. This line is extremely suspect…all the slogans are in play since Michigan State’s next opponent is a home game vs. Michigan. Fear nor…Sparty will be ready for battle since next week they have a bye. They are hyper focused on Indiana. Their average margin of victory has been 17 points thus far, and in this game they are only laying 3 points. Indiana coach Tom Allen announced on Monday morning that quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is still ''week-to-week'' with a shoulder injury and did not rule him out for Saturday’s game against Michigan State. What made Penix so good last year was his ability to run. With the ACL injury and now the banged up shoulder, Penix is now Glass Joe and he won’t be able to throw. His backup, even though he’s healthy, is worse (he’s 8 for 18 this year).

Indiana has played 3 good teams this year (Iowa, Penn State and Cincinnati). They lost all 3 games. The average scores of those losses was 32-10. Sparty has a legit offense this year. Michigan State is 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country this year with 7.45 yards per play while averaging 487 yards per game. Indiana has not shown that they can keep a game close against good competition and that’s with a healthy Penix at the helm. It’s not happening here. Michigan State keeps a comfortable lead throughout and wins going away.
 

iamhuge

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UTSA -18.5 rice

Roadrunner…the coyote’s after you. Roadrunner…if he catches you your through. In the battle of the Texas birds, the lowly Rice Owls will be traveling west to San Antonio to face the undefeated….yes, the undefeated, 6-0 UTSA Roadrunners. Even though UTSA is undefeated, this bet on them really isn’t about them. The good news is that the Roadrunners can score and they are averaging around 38 points per game against a schedule that is much better than what Rice will bring to the Riverwalk on Saturday.

Rice is averaging only 12 points per game against FBS competition which means UTSA will have to score at least 31 points to cover. That shouldn’t be a problem against the weak Rice defense, particularly since UTSA has exceeded 31 points in 4 of their 6 victories. The problem with the Owls is that their Red Zone offense is terrible, ranked dead last in FBS as they have scored on only 44% of their chances. Rice’s close 24-19 victory over lowly Southern Siss was completely fraudulent, as USM had 4 turnovers to give away the game.

UTSA QB Frank Harris is completing 69.8 percent of his passes for 1,475 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. According to Coach Traylor, He understands the offense more and more each week. The UTSA offense keeps clicking, converting 49% of their 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs (ranked 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in FBS). This is not good news for Rice who is ranked 125[SUP]th[/SUP] in scoring defense, giving up 445 yards per game in the process. The UTSA run defense is pretty stout, only allowing 2.7 yards per carry, good enough for a 7[SUP]th[/SUP] ranking in the FBS. If Rice struggles to run the ball, they will be in trouble.

The closest that Rice got in their 3 losses was 21 points. That’s not good enough to cover against an undefeated team, playing at home – during homecoming. The UTSA faithful is beating the drums to “pack the dome” so that place could get really loud for the brainiacs from Rice. UTSA is unranked, despite not having a loss. This certainly will motivate them to keep their foot on the gas and cover this spread. With Rice’s anemic offense, forget about the backdoor cover. The Roadrunners at home is my bet, laying the 18.5.
 

iamhuge

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Colorado state -10 NEW MEXICO

This game is the story of two teams moving in completely opposite directions. After the complete meltdown against Vanderbilt, Coach Addazio had a come to Jesus reckoning with his team and they have certainly responded. Since that inexplicable self inflicted defeat, the Rams have played extremely well. They dominated a tough Toledo squad, 22-6. Then they went to Iowa and scrapped with one of the best teams in the country – staying tied with them midway through the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter and holding the Hawkeyes to only 54 yards rushing and 1.7 yards per carry. They proved their mettle last week posting an 18 point victory against a mediocre San Jose State team.

New Mexico has shown nothing so far this year and is in the midst of a 4 game losing skid. After a couple of unimpressive wins against garbage teams (Houston Baptist and New Mexico State), New Mexico has averaged less than 8 points per game while coughing up an average of 31 points to their opponents. The big news here is that the Lobos QB Terry Wilson seriously injured his elbow last week. Wilson dislocated his nonthrowing arm in a loss at San Diego State over the weekend. “We could move Trae back. We got Isaiah. We got CJ,” said Coach Gonzales. “We’ll decide who gives us the best chance to win with a week’s preparation.” This doesn’t sound like very good news for an offense that already has trouble finding the end zone. New Mexico ranks 125[SUP]th[/SUP] in the FBS for Yards per Play and 126[SUP]th[/SUP] in the FBS in Red Zone conversions (only 6 TD’s in 17 Red Zone trips). When looking at the points being put on the board, the Lobos are ranking 128th in D-1 holding an average of 15.2 points per game.

Covering 10 points on the road is never easy, but the Rams have already covered the 10 in their 2 victories this season. It seems that CSU’s QB is finally finding his footing. Last week, Todd Centeio finished 19/23 with 232 yards through the air and 1 touchdown. He had a quarterback rating of 181.7. Given the ineptidude of the Lobos offense, combined with the stout Ram defense, the back door cover will not be in play. If I didn’t have the displeasure of watching the CSU – Vandy debacle, I would really be all over the Rams on this game but in hindsight I view that game as good medicine for Colorado State and I think they will lay the wood on New Mexico. Taking the road chalk and the Rams -10.
 

iamhuge

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Syracuse +14 Clemson

Very interesting game. How long are we going to continue to believe that Clemson has an offense? Earth to South Carolina….they don’t. The only thing sadder than DJ Uiagalelei;s play at quarterback is the guy who works at Dr. Pepper who signed the NIL deal with him. In their 4 FBS games this year, Clemson is averaging 14 points per game. It’s hard….really hard…to cover a 14 point spread when you’re only scoring 14 points per game. Uiagalele is ranked 103 out of 110 FBS quarterbacks in passing efficiency. That’s not good. Clemson has already played 5 games…this is not a one off. Their offense stinks.

Looking at Syracuse, they are the complete opposite of Clemson. Everyone thinks that the Orange is a lame ass bottom of the barrel ACC team, but their performance this year belies that. At 3-3 so far this season, Syracuse is averaging 32 points per game and have only given up 24 points per game. Their 3 losses have been pretty close, one in OT to Wake Forest, a 3 point loss to FSU on a FG as time expired and a 10 point loss to Rutgers that never should have happened but for 3 turnovers after a scoreless first half by both teams. The Orange are top-25 in total defense and don’t forget this is a Friday night game which will be in a packed Carrier Dome. There will be lots of shitfaced fans harassing the crap out of DJ Uiagalelei – likely the most hostile environment that he’s faced as a starter. Clemson’s defense will be great, but they will find points hard to come by. This is going to be a low scoring game which makes the 14 points a big mountain for Clemson to climb on the road. Clemson is winless against the spread this season. This is not a Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne offense.

In the land of NIL and making the CFP playoff and me me me, it’s difficult to fathom that the Clemson players are motivated for the rest of this season. It’s getting obvious they are losing confidence in their quarterback. This game will be ugly, and the home team will be loving the 14 points. Go Orange.
 

iamhuge

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ARKANSAS -3.5 auburn

What’s it going to be? War Eagle or Wooo Pig? The bottom line is that Arkansas is playing at home and this is a very good Razorback team. They are the best team in Texas, having convincingly beaten both the Longhorns and the Aggies by the scores of 40-21 and 20-10, respectively. There is no shame in losing at Georgia and the 52-51 loss at Mississippi certainly could have gone either way. They are coming off two tough road losses and being back home sets up really nicely for them in a must win spot.

Auburn’s portfolio isn’t quite as good. Three of their four wins were against punching bags. Their 24-19 victory over LSU was less than impressive. They also got crushed by Georgia. Their best effort this year was a loss to Penn State, who might only be the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best team in the Big 10.

Arkansas essentially has had 3 consecutive road games and they are coming back to Razorback Stadium in front of what will likely be a raucous crowd of Woo Pig Sooie. The key to the game will be whether or not Auburn will be able to run the ball. The Hogs did a great job containing Bijan Robinson, supposedly the best back in the country, to 69 yards and 3.6 yards per carry. So we’ll see. While Bo Nix has been the plain vanilla starter for Auburn for like forever, Arkansas’ QB KJ Jefferson has been just phenomenal and he has been posting Madden like numbers both running and passing the ball. Arkansas is also the only FBS team with three rushers with over 300 yards on the season in Sanders, Smith and Jefferson. If the Auburn defense doesn’t have their chin strap buckled, they may never see the ball.

Next week, Auburn has to gear up for Ole Siss, while Arkansas has Arkansas Pine Bluff at home. One can only assume that the Razorbacks will be emptying the tank against the Tigers. We’re looking at two 4-2 teams. Arkansas has 2 quality wins and 1 quality loss. Auburn has 1 quality win and 1 quality loss. Arkansas is home and only needs to cover 3.5. I am going with the better team on paper and the home cooking. Woo Pig.
 

iamhuge

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CINCINNATI -20 ucf

Holy crap that is a lot of points. Do you remember when UCF was the Group of 5 darling? That was before Mackenzie Milton did a Dropkick Murphy’s and lost his leg. He’s not shipping off to Boston but without backup Dillon Gabriel, the Knights are like the Knights who say Nee Nee Nee. UCF’s coach Gus Malzahn is all faceful he ran off Mackenzie Milton. Now he has to deal with a freshman against a big time defense. Sorry Charlie. Filling in for Gabriel behind center for UCF will likely be freshman Mikey Keene, who has yet to take snaps against an FBS opponent.
The Bearcats have the #1 Red Zone defense in FBS, holding opponents to zero points 54% of the time. So you driving along driving along and get down to the 20 and when you’re playing Cincinnati most of the time you don’t score. Cincinnati is also in the top 5 of when it comes to ball hawking interceptions. This freshman is going to be dead meat…on the road. Are you kidding me?

Unless you are sleeping under a rock, the Bearcats are making a serious bid for the CFP playoffs. While Coach Fickell is certainly an honorable man, there is no question he is gunning to get into that tournament. The best way to do that is to annihilate teams that still have some credibility. Cincinnati is incredibly stingy when it comes to run defense and they are going to try to force the kid to throw in a hostile environment. They have only given up 12 points per game, and that includes facing teams like Notre Dame and Indiana. UCF has already dropped games to teams that are inferior to Cinci (Louisville and Navy). The Bearcats went to Notre Dame and won by 11 points. What else do you need to know?

I am taking the home team and laying the enormous wood. This is going to be a sad blowout to UCF who wish they still had George “The Liar” O’Leary as their coach. Go Cats laying 20 points.
 

iamhuge

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SOUTH FLORIDA +8.5 tulsa

You know I must say I am all faceful when it comes to taking this home dog. Just like Tom said when he was guilty….”I must admit I ate the steak”. When it is there for the taking, you just have to go for it. I was hating on the Bulls early in the season because their offense was complete crap. They looked like SD Jones trying to score a victory over Kamala. But things have changed somewhat. You might think I am on drugs, but USF has had their hands full with their schedule, squaring up against Florida, BYU and SMU. Their offense has been much better than it was last year and they are going against a Tulsa team that has been very shaky.

Alright, I must admit, Tulsa did find a way to beat Memphis. But we all must realize that Memphis had 614 yards of offense in that game and 3 turnovers. I don’t think that South Florida will have a problem putting up points at home against that defense. USF has had the misfortune of facing four ranked teams in five games thus far. Iron sharpens iron, but Tulsa has been playing more like a soft pillow. If you take away Tulsa’s fraudulent win against Memphis, they have been flat out bad in the rest of their games. Covering 8.5 points on the road is going to be a big slog for them. College football stadiums across Florida with tens of thousands of non-masked, screaming students and boosters packed closely together have so far resulted in no recognizable community outbreaks amid the pandemic, according to infection figures on the state’s biggest campuses. So the 2-4 Bulls are, giving up 32.7 points per game, ready to play a tough game and for the Golden Hurricanes to cover this on the road? Naaa…give me the points and da Bulls.
 

iamhuge

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Toledo -4 CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Come on…admit it. Whenever you saw a girl with huge melons, did you ever say “Holy Toledo”? Well those Rockets have been taking off in the Big MAC and Toledo is ready to put a flag in the ground to be the Big Mac Daddy. When I look at these two teams, their offenses are comparable, but clearly on defense Toledo is superior. The Rockets have only given up 17.5 points per game this season, whereas Central Michigan is permissive to the tune of 27.5 points per game.

Both teams come into this game a 3-3 but Toledo lost very close games to Notre Dame and Northern Illinois and offset those difficult defeats with convincing wins over Ball State and Umass. All of Central Michigan’s 3 defeats were by 10 points or more and Toledo went on the road and beat a Ball State team by 10 points – a team that is much better than Central Michigan. The last time the Chippawas were home, they beat a completely ass FIU team by only 4 points. Their defense is giving up 28 points per game, so we all know that the Toledo offense is not going to have trouble finding the end zone. Big Dog on the loose…give me those points. Go Rockets.
 

Knightrofins

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CINCINNATI -20 ucf

Holy crap that is a lot of points. Do you remember when UCF was the Group of 5 darling? That was before Mackenzie Milton did a Dropkick Murphy’s and lost his leg. He’s not shipping off to Boston but without backup Dillon Gabriel, the Knights are like the Knights who say Nee Nee Nee. UCF’s coach Gus Malzahn is all faceful he ran off Mackenzie Milton. Now he has to deal with a freshman against a big time defense. Sorry Charlie. Filling in for Gabriel behind center for UCF will likely be freshman Mikey Keene, who has yet to take snaps against an FBS opponent.
The Bearcats have the #1 Red Zone defense in FBS, holding opponents to zero points 54% of the time. So you driving along driving along and get down to the 20 and when you’re playing Cincinnati most of the time you don’t score. Cincinnati is also in the top 5 of when it comes to ball hawking interceptions. This freshman is going to be dead meat…on the road. Are you kidding me?

Unless you are sleeping under a rock, the Bearcats are making a serious bid for the CFP playoffs. While Coach Fickell is certainly an honorable man, there is no question he is gunning to get into that tournament. The best way to do that is to annihilate teams that still have some credibility. Cincinnati is incredibly stingy when it comes to run defense and they are going to try to force the kid to throw in a hostile environment. They have only given up 12 points per game, and that includes facing teams like Notre Dame and Indiana. UCF has already dropped games to teams that are inferior to Cinci (Louisville and Navy). The Bearcats went to Notre Dame and won by 11 points. What else do you need to know?

I am taking the home team and laying the enormous wood. This is going to be a sad blowout to UCF who wish they still had George “The Liar” O’Leary as their coach. Go Cats laying 20 points.


i don’t disagree with the pick but the UCF freshman QB has started his last 2 weeks and had played vs FBS opponents
 

iamhuge

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IOWA -12.5 purdue

Some handicappers spend their entire lives looking for a betting opportunity that is just too good to pass up. On the order of discovering Plutonium by accident, the holy grail of sports betting is the rubber band game. What is the rubber band game? It’s when you take an entire wad of cash out of your pocket, wrap a rubber band around it and then bounce it at the betting window. You don’t even care about what the exact amount of money is wrapped by that rubber band, because you know you’ll be getting it back twice in a little over 3 hours.

So in week 7 of college football, we have a rubber band game. Everyone is blowing the Hawkeyes this season because they love to see this team win. They play great defense and their fans are beyond compare. This is a rubber band game, not because Iowa is very good – which they are. It’s a rubber band game because Purdue is overrated. When they played lousy teams, they won. When they played decent teams, they lost. They still haven’t played a great team. This week they will.

Iowa leads the nation in ball hawking on defense. To throw the ball against them is risking turnovers. They have 16 picks this year so far. The Boilermakers have scored 13 points in each of their last three games, against Notre Dame, Illinois and Minnesota. To think that they will secure more than 1 touchdown on Saturday is a fantasy. Purdue has not been able to effectively establish a consistent running game this season. They have only averaged 2.8 yards per carry and their best RB, Horvath, is out. Do you know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. It’s going to be 3 and out city for the Boilermakers and, though Plummer is an excellent QB, he will be facing many third and longs trying to sustain drives.

One of the big factors in liking Iowa for this game is the fact that they do have a bye next week. So even with the emotional victory over Penn State last week, they will be able to stay focused on Purdue. Think of it this way, if Penn State was home and laying 12.5 points to Purdue, would anyone have a problem laying those points? I think not. Iowa definitely has the offense to cover this spread. The two teams that they played that our similar to Purdue in strength (Indiana and Maryland), the Hawkeyes defeated by 28 and 37 points respectively.

Purdue has receiver David Bell. He’s phenomenal. Iowa lost their best corner, Riley Moss. That’s what is keeping this line from going to 20 points. Iowa will step up with Matt Hankins covering Bell as he has allowed only one first down in 229 coverage snaps. If the Hawkeyes can’t cover Bell, I am going to be all faceful. But Bell missed the Illinois game because he was all concussed. Likely getting rocked a couple of times by the Iowa headhunters will give him alligator arms.

In fact, other than Bell, Purdue looks like a MASH unit:

0/14/21 CB Cory Trice Knee is out for season
10/14/21 RB Ja'Quez Cross Personal is OUT Saturday vs Iowa
10/13/21 WR Mershawn Rice Foot is out for season
10/13/21 WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen Undisclosed is out for season
10/12/21 TE Payne Durham Concussion is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Iowa
10/06/21 DT Branson Deen Concussion is "?" Saturday vs Iowa
10/06/21 S Damarcus Mitchell Undisclosed is "?" Saturday vs Iowa

Once Purdue gets behind, it will be evident that they can’t catch up. Very demoralizing. At the end of the day, this game is all about the Iowa defense, which has held opposing teams to only 13 points per game. When you combine that with facing and offense that can’t run the ball, you’re left with a home team that will win easily. We’re looking at a 27-10 final score where the backdoor cover doesn’t even come close to being a factor. Iowa is my rubber band game for my 2021 Vegas trip.
 

iamhuge

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Sparty, Cincy and USF cover...Woo Pig Sooie is now bacon. 4-1 so far this week.
 

iamhuge

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Iowa was a horror show...my rubber band broke. Toledo came back, but too late. 4-3 on the week.
 

iamhuge

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UTSA covers....very easily....a winning week is guaranteed. 5-3 so far!
 

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