Sunday Service Play Thread 10/17/2021

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BuzzKill

Let's go Brandon!
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Lawfrankd

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HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 9:30AM
251 MIA -3.0 (-110)BetOnline vs 252 JAC double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]Trying to get a little in front of injury news as all reports say it’s likely that Tua is activated for this game. I personally made this number Miami -3.5 with Brissett at QB and -4.5 with Tua, so regardless it has value but obviously would prefer Tua at quarterback. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Jacksonville is a team that has lost 20 straight games, and is now dealing with a locker room that is absolutely divided going by all credible reports. They are dealing with injuries to two of their more important players in Brandon Linder and Myles Jack now as well. [/FONT]
 

Lawfrankd

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HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 4:25PM
272 NEP +4.0 (-110)Southpoint vs 271 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]This one is starting to get hit at some spots but about half the board still dealing 4. I make it 2.75 [/FONT]
 

Lawfrankd

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HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
263 CIN -2.5 (-125)Bookmaker vs 264 DET double-dime bet

Analysis: FYI, as of right now Kambi is dealing -2.5 -122 as well. Pinnacle is dealing Bengals -3 -105. If you could buy off of 3 for twenty cents I wouldn't be against doing it, but if your shop charges anymore than that, I'd sit with -3 -105 or -3 -110.


Detroit has had a lot of fraudulent box scores recently. Facts are that this is a team that has been dominated in all of their games this season at one point during the game. They were dominated by Green Bay, dominated by San Fran (down 24 in the fourth), down 17 in the fourth to Chicago, and down 13 late against Minnesota. The only game that Detroit kept close for long stretches of the game was Baltimore, which was the infamous Hollywood Brown three dropped touchdown receptions game.


The injuries continue to pile up for Detroit. They have placed Jeff Okudah, Tyrell Williams, Kevin Strong, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Frank Ragnow, Romeo Okwara, and Quinten Cephus on seaosn ending IR during the regular season. The cluster injuries to a team that was already devoid of talent is beginning to get to an alarming level.


Joe Burrow and this Bengals passing offense has a clear edge against a pass rush and secondary low on talent. The Lions are the NFL's least explosive offense and require long drives to score. It's a role Cincinnati is not familiar with (road favorite), which was my only hesitation, but I make this game Bengals -4, giving us clear value.
 

Lawfrankd

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HITMAN | NFL Teaser - Thursday, Oct 14 2021 8:20PM
TB -0.5/KC-1

(-120)Bookmaker 109 TAM vs 110 PHI triple-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]3* 6 PT TEASER: TB -0.5/KC -1 -120 (Consensus)[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]This will be the most public teaser of the week, but I still believe it's a good one.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Eagles defense has been good against weaker competition (SF, ATL, CAR) but absolutely torched by the other top five offenses they have faced in Dallas (41 points allowed) and Kansas City (42 points allowed). The Eagles are still dealing with offensive line issues, troublesome against a ferocious Tampa front seven, and they also don't have the top end passing game weapons and quarterback that can fully take advantage of this Tampa secondary. We are getting a Tampa team who is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games in a pick em spot against a below average Eagles team. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Chiefs, despite their 2-3 record, could easily be 4-1 against by far the leagues toughest schedule. The defense is huge issue, but so is the Redskins offensive injuries. RB Antonio Gibson isn't full healthy. Taylor Heinecke has begun to come back to earth, and they are also possibly without WR Dyami Brown, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, and RG Brandon Scherff. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Washington's defense has allowed four touchdown passes in three consecutive games, and is now facing a Chiefs offense that has the best offense since 2009 in points per drive. This is still an elite Chiefs offense, in a close to must win spot against one of the bottom ten teams in the NFL. I expect this game to go a lot like the Chiefs/Eagles game from two weeks ago, which was controlled by KC. [/FONT]
 

Lawfrankd

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260
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
Dillon O40.5

(-115)William Hill 255 GBP vs 256 CHI single-dime bet

Analysis: AJ Dillon (GB) O40.5 Total Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)






FYI, I also think Dillon is good on over 26.5 rush yards if you can't get total yards.
 

Lawfrankd

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HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
Jones U15.5

(-130)William Hill 255 GBP vs 256 CHI single-dime bet

Analysis: Aaron Jones (GB) U15.5 carries -130 (DK/Caesars)


 

Lawfrankd

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Messages
260
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 8:20PM
Harris O70.5

(-115)William Hill 273 SEA vs 274 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis: Najee Harris (PIT) O70.5 Rush Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)
 

Lawfrankd

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Messages
260
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 8:20PM
Ben U255.5

(-115)William Hill 273 SEA vs 274 PIT single-dime bet

Analysis: Big Ben (PIT) U255.5 Pass Yds -115 (DK/Caesars)


 

Lawfrankd

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Messages
260
HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 17 2021 1:00PM
261 LAC / 262 BAL OVER 51.5 Circa Sportsdouble-dime bet

Analysis: One of my big regrets from last week was not playing the over in Cleveland against LA. One of my handicaps was the fact that both teams were so analytically driven, that it would lead to more aggressive play calling and fourth down decision making which ultimately leads to less punts and field goals (which typically leads to more points). This week, I am not hesitating on backing the over between two of the most aggressive decision making teams in the NFL.


The Ravens offense is more reliant on the pass than ever, as Baltimore's situation neutral pass rate is now at 51.2%, which is an 8% increase from last season. Lamar Jackson has responded by playing at an MVP level. Not only should Lamar be able to throw on a Chargers defense that allowed Baker Mayfield to throw 305 yards and two touchdowns, but the Ravens should be able to have rushing success against a run defense that has allowed an NFL high 5.6 YPC.


Justin Herbert has been playing out of his mind for the Chargers, and the Chargers are in the top 8 of situation neutral pace. Baltimore's pass defense has played well against the injured and subpar passing offenses of Denver and Detroit, but struggled mightily in other contests against Vegas, KC, and Indy. The Ravens are 27th in YPA and YPC allowed through the air.
 

BuzzKill

Let's go Brandon!
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
18,770
Ben Burns

Jaguars +3.5 vs Miami
Under 43 Texans/Colts
Browns -2.5 vs Cardinals
Patriots +4.5 vs Cowboys
 

BuzzKill

Let's go Brandon!
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
18,770
Scott Spreitzer

F* New England +3.5
C* Cleveland -3
C* Baltimore -2.5
 

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