Adding 1U W. KY -13. Card below:
1U- Nebraska -4 - Get right game. Nebraska has had some tough losses against solid teams, losing 3 close games to Top 10 teams. They took Sparty to OT and if not for getting Martinez'd may have taken my Wolverines to OT. On the other hand, Minnesota has been underwhelming and a bit of a roller coaster. I think Nebraska response to Frost after an emotional loss last weekend and they get back on track this week. I can see them winning this by 2 scores.
1U Rutgers -2 - Another get right game. I don't think Rutgers is a strong team still, but they've played a brutal stretch @Michigan and home dates w/ OSU and Sparty in consecutive weeks. This team is ready for a break- but first they go to Northwestern and get a win to get some positive vibes heading into their bye. Northwestern's offense is struggling and has a lot less firepower then their last 3 matchups; Rutgers takes care of business.
1U GA -22.5 - This is a tough number, I was hoping to be able to buy it to 21. But I think KY will struggle in Athens. KY Won the FL game despite being outgained by a significant margin. This GA D is going to give up less than FL did and their Offense will capitalize on opportunities and not commit 15 penalties. If GA goes up early, it will be tough for KY to get momentum back on the road and I can see GA winning this game similarly to the Arkansas matchup.
1U W. KY -12.5 - Western Kentucky has played with some solid competition this year and their passing attack is legit. They are also a team in need of a win after 4 consecutive losses to IU, Sparty, Army and UTSA (most of them being 1 score losses). I think they have too much horsepower for this Old Dominion offense to keep pace with for 4 quarters.
1U- Nebraska -4 - Get right game. Nebraska has had some tough losses against solid teams, losing 3 close games to Top 10 teams. They took Sparty to OT and if not for getting Martinez'd may have taken my Wolverines to OT. On the other hand, Minnesota has been underwhelming and a bit of a roller coaster. I think Nebraska response to Frost after an emotional loss last weekend and they get back on track this week. I can see them winning this by 2 scores.
1U Rutgers -2 - Another get right game. I don't think Rutgers is a strong team still, but they've played a brutal stretch @Michigan and home dates w/ OSU and Sparty in consecutive weeks. This team is ready for a break- but first they go to Northwestern and get a win to get some positive vibes heading into their bye. Northwestern's offense is struggling and has a lot less firepower then their last 3 matchups; Rutgers takes care of business.
1U GA -22.5 - This is a tough number, I was hoping to be able to buy it to 21. But I think KY will struggle in Athens. KY Won the FL game despite being outgained by a significant margin. This GA D is going to give up less than FL did and their Offense will capitalize on opportunities and not commit 15 penalties. If GA goes up early, it will be tough for KY to get momentum back on the road and I can see GA winning this game similarly to the Arkansas matchup.
1U W. KY -12.5 - Western Kentucky has played with some solid competition this year and their passing attack is legit. They are also a team in need of a win after 4 consecutive losses to IU, Sparty, Army and UTSA (most of them being 1 score losses). I think they have too much horsepower for this Old Dominion offense to keep pace with for 4 quarters.
Few Plays- Have a few more I want to look at/ wait on.
1U - Michigan -23.5 - Northwestern is giving up 5.9 YPP on defense. They're also giving up 205 Yards per game on the ground and 5.37 Yard per carry. Michigan is averaging 5.4 Yards per carry and 250 Yards per game on the ground. Now look at Northwestern's schedule- that doesn't bode well for them in this one. Michigan coming off a bye with Sparty on deck is an interesting spot for them.. but I don't think they sleepwalk into this home game.
1U - Purdue +3.5 - I like the hook on this. Purdue beat Iowa last week and yes 5 turnovers definitely helps- but I thought they looked better on a down to down basis. It also doesn't hurt that they get the wisconsin offense, which has been pretty vulnerable to turnovers. Purdue takes the big road upset momentum with them back home this week. The hook is nice to have- tough to see Wiscy beating a team by more than 3 regardless.
1U OK State +7- I'm tempted to lay half a unit on OK State ML as well. I don't want to take away from what Iowa State has done, but OK State has a more impressive resume and I trust them as a more battle hardened team in this one. I suspect the OK State Front 7 will be a bit much for Iowa state to handle. It is on the road, so for now give me the 7 but I might come back and play the ML as well.
1U Western KY -15 - I'm going back to the well on these guys. Same theory as last week- this is a team that has played a lot of solid competition early this season and they're better for it. FIU has one of the worst defenses out there.. I can't see them stopping Western KY enough to cover.
1U - Michigan -23.5 - Northwestern is giving up 5.9 YPP on defense. They're also giving up 205 Yards per game on the ground and 5.37 Yard per carry. Michigan is averaging 5.4 Yards per carry and 250 Yards per game on the ground. Now look at Northwestern's schedule- that doesn't bode well for them in this one. Michigan coming off a bye with Sparty on deck is an interesting spot for them.. but I don't think they sleepwalk into this home game.
1U - Purdue +3.5 - I like the hook on this. Purdue beat Iowa last week and yes 5 turnovers definitely helps- but I thought they looked better on a down to down basis. It also doesn't hurt that they get the wisconsin offense, which has been pretty vulnerable to turnovers. Purdue takes the big road upset momentum with them back home this week. The hook is nice to have- tough to see Wiscy beating a team by more than 3 regardless.
1U OK State +7- I'm tempted to lay half a unit on OK State ML as well. I don't want to take away from what Iowa State has done, but OK State has a more impressive resume and I trust them as a more battle hardened team in this one. I suspect the OK State Front 7 will be a bit much for Iowa state to handle. It is on the road, so for now give me the 7 but I might come back and play the ML as well.
1U Western KY -15 - I'm going back to the well on these guys. Same theory as last week- this is a team that has played a lot of solid competition early this season and they're better for it. FIU has one of the worst defenses out there.. I can't see them stopping Western KY enough to cover.
Adding 2U Cinci Over 48.5+
Weekend Card:
2U Cinci Over 48.5- Cinci will do everything in their power to run up the score in this game, they need to for resume purposes. I can see them covering this spread as well- but it's backdoor territory so I'd rather take the over. Navy will try to slow the game down a bit with how much they run obviously. But Cinci can put up some points- they're averaging North of 40 points a game and will by far be the best offense that Navy has seen. I think I can count on Cinci scoring 40. I think Navy's capable of ripping off a few big plays with their option offense and get some points on the board. I think this game ends up in the low to Mid-50s.
1U - Michigan -23.5 - Northwestern is giving up 5.9 YPP on defense. They're also giving up 205 Yards per game on the ground and 5.37 Yard per carry. Michigan is averaging 5.4 Yards per carry and 250 Yards per game on the ground. Now look at Northwestern's schedule- that doesn't bode well for them in this one. Michigan coming off a bye with Sparty on deck is an interesting spot for them.. but I don't think they sleepwalk into this home game.
1U - Purdue +3.5 - I like the hook on this. Purdue beat Iowa last week and yes 5 turnovers definitely helps- but I thought they looked better on a down to down basis. It also doesn't hurt that they get the wisconsin offense, which has been pretty vulnerable to turnovers. Purdue takes the big road upset momentum with them back home this week. The hook is nice to have- tough to see Wiscy beating a team by more than 3 regardless.
1U OK State +7- I'm tempted to lay half a unit on OK State ML as well. I don't want to take away from what Iowa State has done, but OK State has a more impressive resume and I trust them as a more battle hardened team in this one. I suspect the OK State Front 7 will be a bit much for Iowa state to handle. It is on the road, so for now give me the 7 but I might come back and play the ML as well.
1U Western KY -15 - I'm going back to the well on these guys. Same theory as last week- this is a team that has played a lot of solid competition early this season and they're better for it. FIU has one of the worst defenses out there.. I can't see them stopping Western KY enough to cover.
Weekend Card:
2U Cinci Over 48.5- Cinci will do everything in their power to run up the score in this game, they need to for resume purposes. I can see them covering this spread as well- but it's backdoor territory so I'd rather take the over. Navy will try to slow the game down a bit with how much they run obviously. But Cinci can put up some points- they're averaging North of 40 points a game and will by far be the best offense that Navy has seen. I think I can count on Cinci scoring 40. I think Navy's capable of ripping off a few big plays with their option offense and get some points on the board. I think this game ends up in the low to Mid-50s.
1U - Michigan -23.5 - Northwestern is giving up 5.9 YPP on defense. They're also giving up 205 Yards per game on the ground and 5.37 Yard per carry. Michigan is averaging 5.4 Yards per carry and 250 Yards per game on the ground. Now look at Northwestern's schedule- that doesn't bode well for them in this one. Michigan coming off a bye with Sparty on deck is an interesting spot for them.. but I don't think they sleepwalk into this home game.
1U - Purdue +3.5 - I like the hook on this. Purdue beat Iowa last week and yes 5 turnovers definitely helps- but I thought they looked better on a down to down basis. It also doesn't hurt that they get the wisconsin offense, which has been pretty vulnerable to turnovers. Purdue takes the big road upset momentum with them back home this week. The hook is nice to have- tough to see Wiscy beating a team by more than 3 regardless.
1U OK State +7- I'm tempted to lay half a unit on OK State ML as well. I don't want to take away from what Iowa State has done, but OK State has a more impressive resume and I trust them as a more battle hardened team in this one. I suspect the OK State Front 7 will be a bit much for Iowa state to handle. It is on the road, so for now give me the 7 but I might come back and play the ML as well.
1U Western KY -15 - I'm going back to the well on these guys. Same theory as last week- this is a team that has played a lot of solid competition early this season and they're better for it. FIU has one of the worst defenses out there.. I can't see them stopping Western KY enough to cover.
1 More Play
1U Ohio St Over 59- Indiana has been a bit of a mess- it looks like OSU has figured it out. However, OSU has looked good against Akron, Rutgers and Maryland... not exactly stiff competition. I like Indiana on the spread as Ohio State has historically had trouble w/ IU and it's a trip to their house. But, I don't trust IU enough right now. So give me the Over. My thought is that OSU will click on offense, but I think it remains to be seen what OSU defense will look like now against actual competition. Since the Oregon L- Ohio state hasnt had much competition.
1U Ohio St Over 59- Indiana has been a bit of a mess- it looks like OSU has figured it out. However, OSU has looked good against Akron, Rutgers and Maryland... not exactly stiff competition. I like Indiana on the spread as Ohio State has historically had trouble w/ IU and it's a trip to their house. But, I don't trust IU enough right now. So give me the Over. My thought is that OSU will click on offense, but I think it remains to be seen what OSU defense will look like now against actual competition. Since the Oregon L- Ohio state hasnt had much competition.
Last Week: 3-2 Even
Season: 32-25 +8 Units
This Week:
2U Wake -16.5 - This line stinks a bit, but I'll take it. Wake has pretty much been good for around 40 points a week, I think that will be fairly easy to maintain against Duke's defense. That makes the question on how many points does wake surrender? Yeah- they gave a boatload up to Army last week... so I gotta think that the Defense has been pissed all week and is coming out to show the world that was a fluke performance against an option team. Not to mention Duke hasn't been able to put up points against good competition this year.
1U Iowa +3.5 - Bounce back. I think Iowa wins this straight up, but give me 3 and a hook in this Big 10 west "Powerhouse" showdown. Iowa's defense has capitalized on mistakes all year and generated turnovers that put their offense in a position where they can actually score points. Wisconsin turns the ball over like no other. However, I do expect that Wisconsin will do everything they can to not let Mertz throw the ball to avoid turnovers. That screams Field goal game to me.
1U Michigan Under 51- *Disclaimer: I'm a Michigan fan*. It's no secret that Michigan likes to run the ball, Sparty has been decent against the run this year. Giving up 121 YPG and about 3.3 YPC. Now, I don't think they've faced an Offense like Michigan yet and I think Michigan will have some success on the ground. But I don't think it will be enough for them to blow the game open. On the other side of the ball, this should be the first strong rushing attack Michigan has faced. I look for both of these teams to pound the rock and for defenses to hold in the redzone.
1U Pitt -9. I thought this might be a multi-unit play, but with it being an ACC road game, I want to temper expectations. It's easy to see Pitt Pick apart the Miami Secondary, but I will admit- they've seemed to have improved some over the last few weeks. I still think Pitt gets theirs on Offense. But my thought is more on the other side of the ball. This Pitt Defense will be the best that Miami has seen yet under Van Dyke. The Pitt front should put enough pressure on the young QB to force him into some mistakes and lead them to a cover.
*Also eyeing Pitt TT Over. I saw it at 34.5 and missed it, looking for it to creep back below 35*
May have a few more in the AM.
Season: 32-25 +8 Units
This Week:
2U Wake -16.5 - This line stinks a bit, but I'll take it. Wake has pretty much been good for around 40 points a week, I think that will be fairly easy to maintain against Duke's defense. That makes the question on how many points does wake surrender? Yeah- they gave a boatload up to Army last week... so I gotta think that the Defense has been pissed all week and is coming out to show the world that was a fluke performance against an option team. Not to mention Duke hasn't been able to put up points against good competition this year.
1U Iowa +3.5 - Bounce back. I think Iowa wins this straight up, but give me 3 and a hook in this Big 10 west "Powerhouse" showdown. Iowa's defense has capitalized on mistakes all year and generated turnovers that put their offense in a position where they can actually score points. Wisconsin turns the ball over like no other. However, I do expect that Wisconsin will do everything they can to not let Mertz throw the ball to avoid turnovers. That screams Field goal game to me.
1U Michigan Under 51- *Disclaimer: I'm a Michigan fan*. It's no secret that Michigan likes to run the ball, Sparty has been decent against the run this year. Giving up 121 YPG and about 3.3 YPC. Now, I don't think they've faced an Offense like Michigan yet and I think Michigan will have some success on the ground. But I don't think it will be enough for them to blow the game open. On the other side of the ball, this should be the first strong rushing attack Michigan has faced. I look for both of these teams to pound the rock and for defenses to hold in the redzone.
1U Pitt -9. I thought this might be a multi-unit play, but with it being an ACC road game, I want to temper expectations. It's easy to see Pitt Pick apart the Miami Secondary, but I will admit- they've seemed to have improved some over the last few weeks. I still think Pitt gets theirs on Offense. But my thought is more on the other side of the ball. This Pitt Defense will be the best that Miami has seen yet under Van Dyke. The Pitt front should put enough pressure on the young QB to force him into some mistakes and lead them to a cover.
*Also eyeing Pitt TT Over. I saw it at 34.5 and missed it, looking for it to creep back below 35*
May have a few more in the AM.
Last week 1-4 -2U
Season: 33-29 +6U
Busy week- haven't had a ton of time to look into games or do write ups- but here are some games I like
2U PSU -10 - Maryland hasn't been able to keep up with real big 10 competition and they havent played a Defense like PSU yet. Give me Penn State big in this one, a few turnovers help to get points on the board.
1U Pitt -21 - I was very disappointed in Pitt last week. However, what better way to bounce back then to play Duke, who has pretty much given up on the season.
1U Army Under 37.5- Service academy under. Keep that clock rolling.
1U Missouri +40 - Going to hold my breath and hang on. But this is a HUGE spread for an SEC matchup and the Total is 60.. I'll take the 40 points with a total at 60.
Season: 33-29 +6U
Busy week- haven't had a ton of time to look into games or do write ups- but here are some games I like
2U PSU -10 - Maryland hasn't been able to keep up with real big 10 competition and they havent played a Defense like PSU yet. Give me Penn State big in this one, a few turnovers help to get points on the board.
1U Pitt -21 - I was very disappointed in Pitt last week. However, what better way to bounce back then to play Duke, who has pretty much given up on the season.
1U Army Under 37.5- Service academy under. Keep that clock rolling.
1U Missouri +40 - Going to hold my breath and hang on. But this is a HUGE spread for an SEC matchup and the Total is 60.. I'll take the 40 points with a total at 60.
Under Army coming out this week. Have a few games I'm looking at the spreads for as well, may be back in the morning to add them.
2U Mich/ Maryland Under 57.5- Tough spot for Michigan to go on the road here coming off the PSU game and with THE GAME on deck. The Michigan pass rush will be too much for Maryland and should keep them under 20 in this one. However, either scenario should do well for the Under; If Michigan comes to play they can put this to bed early and get the starters some rest before next week. If Michigan Sleepwalks, they won't be able to make up enough ground to push this over.
1U Pitt/UVA Under 66- On paper this looks like a high flying affair, and it should be close to the number. I think the X factor is the pitt d getting some pressure and key stops. the total is a bit higher than I would like for a game that has the potential to turn to a shootout, but I think there's enough value on the under. I have it closer to 62.
1U Oregon/Utah Under 58.5- Two solid defenses in prime time. Big Game unders. Both of these teams like to control the clock and pound the rock. I lean Oregon to win this outright and will likely be on them w/ Points.
2U Mich/ Maryland Under 57.5- Tough spot for Michigan to go on the road here coming off the PSU game and with THE GAME on deck. The Michigan pass rush will be too much for Maryland and should keep them under 20 in this one. However, either scenario should do well for the Under; If Michigan comes to play they can put this to bed early and get the starters some rest before next week. If Michigan Sleepwalks, they won't be able to make up enough ground to push this over.
1U Pitt/UVA Under 66- On paper this looks like a high flying affair, and it should be close to the number. I think the X factor is the pitt d getting some pressure and key stops. the total is a bit higher than I would like for a game that has the potential to turn to a shootout, but I think there's enough value on the under. I have it closer to 62.
1U Oregon/Utah Under 58.5- Two solid defenses in prime time. Big Game unders. Both of these teams like to control the clock and pound the rock. I lean Oregon to win this outright and will likely be on them w/ Points.
Adding
1U Oregon +3.5 - Like I mentioned above, I see this as a low scoring affair with two solid defenses. I think these are pretty evenly matched teams, but I think the market is over adjusting to Utah at the moment, 3 and a hook makes me feel safe, but I can see the ducks winning outright.
1U OK ST -10- OK State knows they control their own destiny right now. Texas Tech ranks 102 in the turnover margin and OK St will be the best defense they've played so far. OK State gets some style points before OU showdown.
BOL to all
1U Oregon +3.5 - Like I mentioned above, I see this as a low scoring affair with two solid defenses. I think these are pretty evenly matched teams, but I think the market is over adjusting to Utah at the moment, 3 and a hook makes me feel safe, but I can see the ducks winning outright.
1U OK ST -10- OK State knows they control their own destiny right now. Texas Tech ranks 102 in the turnover margin and OK St will be the best defense they've played so far. OK State gets some style points before OU showdown.
BOL to all
