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20063-8-0 (-4.00)
200732-38-1 (+36.00)
200819-43-0 (0.00)
20094-14-1 (-13.00)
201021-27-2 (-2.00)
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201923-11-0 (+35.00)
202040-50-0 (+10.00)
202111-14-0 (+4.00)
 
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Kevin Aguilar +103 over Tucker Lutz

7:10 PM EST. Kevin Aguilar began his UFC career with a pair of victories over Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola, but his last three trips to the Octagon were not successful ones. Losses to Dan Ige, Zubaira Tukhugov and Charles Rosa now have Aguilar potentially staring down the unemployment line if he is not successful tonight. Aguilar has been relegated to the role of doormat in that he is tabbed with welcoming Tucker Lutz, who is making his first walk to the Octagon.

[FONT=arial !important]Tucker Lutz made a pair of appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series, getting the call to The Show after his win over Sherrard Blackledge. While his most recent results were successful, we still don't know what Lutz brings to the 145 lbs division, as he has not been tested while Aguilar has.

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[FONT=arial !important]Ige and Tukhugov are a couple of really bad dudes and we can forgive those losses pretty easily. It's also worth noting that Aguilar was a -175 choice over Ige and a coin flip against Tukhugov. Now he's a pooch to a UFC newcomer? There is a big overreaction to Aguilar's recent results, but make no mistake, he should be favored in this spot. This is no easy draw for Lutz. There aren't many tougher outs in this sport than a man whose back is against the wall with nothing left to lose. Good luck, kid.





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Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.




"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 
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ufc 262 - toyota center - houston, tx

michael chandler +113 over charles oliveira

11:00 pm est. Bless charles oliveira. Though no fault of his own, he's always destined to be the "other cowboy." however, when considering recent results, this other "cowboy" is no doubt the best "cowboy." no disrespect to mr. Cerrone. Oliveira is on an incredible tear. An eight fight win streak that spans two years and includes a who's who of the 155 lbs division. Clay guida, jim miller, kevin lee, and his most recent and notable victory, tony ferguson. It's been a hell of a run that includes six, six! Performance of the night bonuses. That's some serious bonus cash. Along the way, "cowboy" locked up the ufc's submission victory record, a notable notch in what is likely to be a hall of fame career. Dude has headlined cards and fought on high profile pay-per-views. He's endeared himself to millions of ufc fans and now it appears he's finally going to be given his due with this championship opportunity with the full weight of the organization and the fans behind him. What could go wrong?

while michael chandler is well known to the hardcores, it takes time for one to endear himself to the broader ufc audience. After all, if one wins a championship in bellator and nobody saw it, does it really matter? We kid of course, but chandler's pre-ufc career is no joke and it should not be glossed over. A pair of wins over benson henderson five years apart have value, as does his bellator championship win over the elder "pitbull" brother. There is no shame that chandler lost that strap to the younger pitbull in 2019, as he, like chandler, is grossly underappreciated by casual fight fans. It's not their fault mind you, bellator is not easy to find on the tube and with a ufc card nearly every week, one's appetite for violence is easily fed. So where does that leave chandler as a commodity in the ufc? His debut over dan hooker was damn impressive but it doesn't seem as though that win is carrying much weight in the market. Some have even criticized that chandler is not worthy of this opportunity. With khabib vacating the title, and both #1 ranked dustin poirier and #2 ranked justin gathje nowhere to be found, the winner of this championship fight is going to have a hard time laying claim as the world's best, but that is an argument for another day. He's what we know, michael chandler is a bad, bad man, who most ufc fans have seen for but a half a round. His stock is low, buy now before he's a champion again. You've only got a few hours.





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tony ferguson +140 over beneil dariush

11:45 pm est. For most of his ufc career, tony ferguson was untouchable, racking up win after win after win. A 12-0 run over a six year span saw "el cucuy" fly about as high as anyone can with his winning of the ufc's then interim lightweight championship over kevin lee being the pinnacle. A freak injury led to the cancellation of a unification bout with khabib and saw ferguson stripped of his title. The path back looked to be an easy one with wins over anthony pettis and donald cerrone setting up another interim championship fight with justin gaethje. That knockout in may of 2020 would be the first loss for tony since 2013. Many thought he'd bounce back against tonight's headliner, charles oliveira, but with the other "cowboy" in the main event, you can guess how that fight went for "el cucuy." now ferguson has lost two straight. This is a fickle market and you are only as good as your last fight. That has many ready to send ferguson out to pasture, but we wouldn't be so hasty.

beneil dariush is no fresh up and comer, but he is five years tony's junior and he's riding a six fight winning streak. So in comparison to ferguson's recent run, dariush looks like a killer. However, who has he beaten? Dude is 14-5 in the ufc with his biggest win perhaps being over jim miller six years ago. Dariush's recent run of victories have come against thiago moises, drew dober, frank camacho, drakkar klose, scott holtzman and carlos diego ferreira. Ferreira and dober are ranked at #14 and #15, respectively, but it looks like there is still a huge gap between the top 5 and the rest of this division. For the #9 ranked dariush, this is a big step up in competition. However, the market perception is that ferguson is on the way down, while dariush is on the way up. That suggests to us that one fighter is overvalued and the other is undervalued. To take back a price on tony ferguson in a fight like this even a year ago would have been bonkers. For fucksake, tony was better than 2-1 as the chalk against gathje, arguably the best 155 lbs fighter on the planet not named khabib. Now ferguson is a pooch to dariush? Please.





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