random bs on prelims...
- Randy Brown by KO ...This is a crossroads fight for both men, more so for the Brazilian veteran, Alex Oliveira. Brown is a mammoth 6’3″ at WW, who despite owning a 78″ reach, fails to utilize his jab fully. While a few long kicks and straights are used, the volume is frustratingly poor and instead Brown often feints into short hooks that sting opponents, but also close the distance for opponents and allow them to counter. Oliveira has started to decline after his natural athleticism has taken a hit due to age, but the Brazilian has ironed out his raw striking into a somewhat composed, methodical technique. The best action will appear in the clinch and the mat, but it will be whoever suffers the least damage on the feet that decides the result on the ground.
- Dwight Grant ...After 3 years on the sidelines after popping for PEDs (drostanolone), who knows what version of Stefan Sekulic will enter the octagon on Saturday night? During his UFC debut against Ramazan Emeev, Sekulic showed solid grappling chops but lacking the wrestling needed to stop opponents from walking him down. Grant is a difficult man to takedown, and with a reach advantage, his powerful counters should find a home all night. Grant is still an unfinished product, but there is a lot to get excited about)
- Brendan Allen in 1st round ...If Karl Roberson can scramble effectively in the first round, he will be able to pull away in the remaining two rounds based on his slick kickboxing and Allen’s horrendous gas tank. Unfortunately, Roberson has regularly fallen to opponents based on his lack of grappling chops, despite a decent TDD. Allen is durable and physically strong enough to walk down Roberson and pressure him against the cage. Allen’s leaky striking defence can’t be exposed if he has control of his opponents back.
- Pat Sabatini ...Despite the fairy-tale debut in the UFC, there are rarely long-term fairy-tale stories in the combat world. Tristan Connelly shocked the odds when he simply out-lasted Michel Pereira back in 2019, despite fighting several weight classes out of his comfort range. Although Connelly’s grinding grappling will find more success at 145, Sabitini will still be the larger man and has him beat on the mat. Connelly’s compact striking could leave Sabitini overextending and being caught, but the most obvious route to victory will be Sabatini chasing a takedown and riding out the rounds on top)
- Danaa Batgerel ...Neither is destined to claim Bantamweight gold, but Batgerel is a sharp kickboxer with excellent footwork that ensures the fight keeps to the range and pace he desires. Natividad is the superior grappler, but Batgerel has decent enough TDD, and Natividad lacks the tenacity to follow through with a wrestling-heavy game plan and instead will duke it out on the feet and most likely lose.
- Zhu Rong ...Rong is a 21-year-old prospect who carries a deep professional record littered with finishes on the feet. There is a lot to get excited about, but Rong’s competition in the WLF hasn’t exactly been stellar and for what footage I could find online – Rong is laughably bad fighting off of his back-foot. Vargas may be 0-2 in the UFC, his athleticism declining at thirty-five years of age, but he is still a powerful striker who could make Rong pay if he presses the action...tough call.
- Jeff Molina likely descision...DWCS prospect, Jeff Molina, is a volume striker who will be able to make the most of Aori’s complete lack of striking defense. While Aori presses opponents in his flat-footed plods, he can generate huge power that may catch Molina, but most likely Molina will continue to land flush on Aori and capture the scorecards. Both men are decent wrestlers, but their scrambles are equally strong.
- Ariane Carnelossi ...Carnelossi favored here simply by virtue of having fought competently against solid competition. While Liang is still improving at 24, will carry a 6" reach advantage into the fight, and can always threaten with a submission off her back – but she has regularly wilted in the face of tough opposition.
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He’s also from Mongolia and trains in New Mexico, but Carry on, emoji man...
[FONT="]more crapola on main card...[/FONT]
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- Shevchenko ...Shev faces her first challenging title defense since JJ back in 2018. One of the strongest tacticians across MMA, Valentina’s crisp technical striking relies on setting frequent traps and out-pointing opponents at range. With a four-inch reach advantage in this bout, she will have to wheel laterally to ensure Andrade doesn’t simply walk her down to the cage. Against Jessica Eye, Shevchenko found great success with her body kick – a weapon that could be used on the somewhat stationary target of Andrade. Jessica’s key to success will be accepting eating a shot to continually press Shevchenko and look to work a slam off the cage. While it only takes one to land from Andrade to gain an opponent’s respect, she lacks the technical nuance to close the gap and will spend much of the night being peppered by point-scoring shots, likely descision but I would't rule out the finish. IMHO Valentina is a bargain at most any price and it's no different tonight...total domination!
- Uriah Hall by KO ...Hall’s downfall has long been pressure fighters and aggressive wrestlers, which Weidman has shown to excel at. Despite finding a W against Omari Akhmedov, Weidman gassed himself out after the first couple rounds in which he was unable to secure a takedown. Fighting on fumes by the third round, Weidman’s chin held up but didn’t settle the nerves about his wafer-thin durability in recent years. Both men are still clear UFC calibre, only losing to top dogs at MW, yet Hall has been building a steady bit of form capped off with a marquee scalp over Anderson Silva. Hall’s problems of lack of volume and poor positioning in the cage remain, but he fights visibly less weathered than Weidman.
- Jimmy Crute ...At only thirty-two, you’d be forgiven for thinking Smith had the skillset left to once again challenge for the LHW title, but with fifty fights under his belt and two extensive arse-whoopings recorded in his last three fights, Smith will surely be showing signs of weathering soon. Smith has always struggled vs aggressive wrestlers, and while Smith has the chin to weather the early power of Crute on the feet, the Aussie is relentless in pursuing the takedown. Smith appeared to mentally snap against Rakic and ride out the decision loss – Crute has the skillset to break Smith once again and likely get a late stop.
[FONT="]for entertainment only...[/FONT]
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Thug Rose +185 ......Zhang is coming off a fight of the year performance vs Joanna. Zhang is 21-1 with her lone loss being her very first MMA fight. Up until ~3 years ago, Rose was a journeyman fighter who would put together 2-3 wins before losing again. She is a former champion, also beating Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the title. Rose lost the title by being slammed on her head and KO’d (by Jessica Andrade listed above), but Andrade immediately lost the belt to Zhang, while Rose went on to avenge the loss. I'm backing Rose in this fight because I think people are just remembering Zhang’s fight of the year performance and are overlooking Rose. MMA math does not work, but both Rose and Zhang have wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but Rose KO’d her once, and in the rematch won by unanimous decision, while Zhang won on a split decision. Rose manages distance very well and is top level strike IF she shows up, but you really never know how motivated she is or will be. - Jorge Masvidal +310 ...These two fought before and it was a unanimous decision win for Usman. He was able to implement his wrestling and put Jorge up against the fence to grind out a boring as fuck win. Masvidal is a superstar due to his run in 2019 where he had 2 highlight KO’s, which led to the BMF fight vs Nate Diaz which he won by doctor’s Stoppage after he cut Diaz badly. I do expect Usman to win, BUT I will be betting on Masvidal ITD +445 because KO is only +450, lol. I'm backing Masvidal because I have some personal bias in wanting him to win, but also because I think Usman will want to get some of Masvidal’s shine by going for a KO or submission win. In Masvidal’s 49 fight career, he has only bee KO’d once and submitted twice. If Usman looks for a fan-friendly finish instead of just implementing his wrestling, he will leave himself open to being hit. Usman has a hell of a chin, but he also gets hit often as he was stunned by a punch early on in his last fight against Gilbert Burns.
