6-1, +8.15 units the last 7.
Great capping,nice write ups thank you X....
colorado -1½ +201 over san diego
3:10 pm est. On may 12, the rockies fell to the padres 3-0, having been two-hit by joe musgrove. The loss, their fifth straight, dropped the team to 14 games below .500. After a travel day, the team fired off four consecutive wins, only to proceed to lose five in a row after that. The roller coaster was on its way.
on june 13, the rocks lost to the reds and found themselves 16 games under .500. They then won five straight. By june 27, they were back to 16 below. On july 29 they faced joe musgrove at petco and again got beaten 3-0, leaving them at 44-59, 15 games under .500. And on sunday, the rockies lost the rubber match to the giants and fell to 14 games below. It’s not really surprising that colorado has taken such a hectic approach to playing .500 ball since mid-may. Emotionally, the team has been a train wreck; after an offseason dominated by the nolan arenado trade, and the distinct lack of soul-searching that the team seemed to engage in its wake, the trade deadline was dominated by the team’s inability to find a buyer for the talented and imprisoned trevor story.
always a volatile team when it comes to travel, the rockies are 40-21 at home, a .650 winning percentage better than the record of any team in baseball and today they’re a pooch to jake arrieta (rhp - sd)? How can that be?
over the course of 11 seasons and more than 1500 career innings pitched, jake arrieta has been everything from one of the best pitchers in baseball’s history to significantly worse than a random triple-a thrower. His latest chapter ended with a thud when the cubs released him about a week ago following an unsuccessful stint with the phillies and an attempted rescue in chicago. The friars are so desperate for pitching that they’re giving him a chance and we cannot see this ending well. If the cubs were going to keep losing games, might as well lose them with some starters they can test out and not this stiff. Arrita’s last four games as a cub resulted in a 10.80 era to go along with a 5.5% swing & miss rate, not to mention a 2.50 whip. Dude is a human traffic jam.
this year has been absolutely putrid, not just by comparison to the best years of arrieta’s career, but by any standard. With an era close to seven over a full 20 starts, the cubs’ attempted revitalization has failed completely. This is not even a single-a worthy pitcher anymore and today he’s priced like he’s a #3 or 4 starter at the league’s toughest venue that wreaks havoc on pitchers like jake arrieta.
7-1, +10.17 units the last 7.
At 2 units each, as some people bet, that would be +20.24 units.
That would be like going 11-1 at -110 odds & 1 unit per bet. Even better actually.
detroit -1½ +168 over st. Louis
1:10 pm est. The cardinals were a massive favorite last night with jack flaherty on the hill and lost their fifth game in their past seven outings. This is a team that just lost two of three to pittsburgh and scored seven times in the three game set. They lost to detroit last night and were shutout for the first seven innings.
baseball is a funny game, as anything can happen but we’re going to trust that the back-to-anemic cardinals offense is going to have to score some runs (and we’re not talking two or three) to prevent us from cashing this ticket. You see, the tigers figure to get theirs because they are facing a pitcher that is worse than retired pitchers. For instance, if jon lester (lhp - st. L) was up against bartolo colon or bronson arroyo, we would be all over colon or arroyo. Today’s he’s facing tarik skubal (lhp - det) and we don’t have to spot anything and could even take back 5 cents or so if we wanted to? Get the fuck outta here!!
there are a half dozen teams today that would be a -250 favorite over lester. There are another 10 that would be a -200 favorite. There are maybe two teams (baltimore and miami) that should be evenly priced against jon lester and even that might be a stretch. Detroit can hit, they can score, they win games and they cannot be an underdog against lester. It's absurd. aside from having a dead arm, jon lester has experienced some control issues in august while running into too many bats this month. He’s allowed four earned runs in three innings or less in three of his last four starts. The tigers are much at their best against southpaws. Does it even matter who’s pitching for the tigers? If this was a week ago and charlie watts (rh drummer - rolling stones) was pitching for the tigers, we’d still fade lester. Jesus.
Sherwood frustrates me. He continues to do the -1.5 runlines when ive noticed soo many times he would have won playing teams just moneyline.
Not to mention, he contradicts so many times. He has great writeups, but youll notice the contradictory part and he'll sway the message towards whoever he bets on.
And keep in mind, hes lost tons of units every season in every sport for the past 3 years.
2018 | 71-69-0 (+14.00) |
2019 | 71-68-0 (+14.00) |
2020 | 63-51-0 (+25.00) |
2018 | 81-57-0 (+64.00) |
2019 | 65-59-0 (+16.00) |
2020 | 55-62-0 (-14.00) |
2018 | 109-95-0 (+30.00) |
2019 | 51-53-0 (-7.00) |
2020 | 101-70-0 (+64.00) |
The flip side of that is the reward for -1.5 lines is so much better.
I would believe this if he werent down 30+ units.
And keep in mind, hes lost tons of units every season in every sport for the past 3 years.
Actually his site says:
"In 2020, we ended +117 units for our 9th winning season in past 11 years. "
In NCAAF the last 3 years:
2018 71-69-0 (+14.00) 2019 71-68-0 (+14.00) 2020 63-51-0 (+25.00)
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In NFL the last 3 years:
2018 81-57-0 (+64.00) 2019 65-59-0 (+16.00) 2020 55-62-0 (-14.00)
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In NCAAB the last 3 years:
2018 109-95-0 (+30.00) 2019 51-53-0 (-7.00) 2020 101-70-0 (+64.00)
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Also hes had two days ive tracked where he didnt count his losses. Samething last year too. Hes actually pretty honest so Id assume he just forgot, but the record isnt acccurate.
washington -1½ +160 over miami
7:10 pm est. Why not washington again? For whatever reason, the nats are being disrespected again in today’s market just like they were in last night’s opener. Today’s starting pitching matchup is even more favorable than yesterday’s, as the nats will face a rookie that pitched at double-a for the majority of this year.
edward cabrera (rhp - mia) is making his major league debut after compiling a 3.68 era and 1.40 whip across 29.1 ip over six games started at triple-a after being promoted from double-a in july. Cabrera is a strikeout right-hander (48 k’s in his 29.1 ip at triple-a) going against a good contact club.
cabrera got off to a slow start this year by opening on the il with bicep tendonitis. There were reports his change had bumped at the alt site last year, but the delayed start put the 6'5", 217-pound dominican on the periphery, especially considering the lost season. The 23-year-old has quietly upped his stock this year across two levels and so here we are. Obviously, he has upside but that 1.40 whip spells trouble. He walked 25 batters in 61 innings with three minor-league teams this year across three levels (just one appearance at single-a). Falling behind major league batters is different from falling behind minor leaguers. We also don’t know how he’ll react to the big show. He’s evenly priced today against another rookie but the difference is that washington’s rookie has paid some dues and has proven he belongs.
josiah gray (rhp - was) has gone six frames each of his last two games. A marlins club with a .556 ops over a seven-game losing streak from aug. 16-22 figures as a welcome change for gray. The nationals rookie has faced four top-10 ops opponents in his first six games. Dude has struck out 35 very good hitters in 30 innings and comes in without a victory yet. That figures to change here, as we get the superior starter pitching for the superior team.
finally, it’s worth noting that washington’s pitching staff has absolutely squashed miami’s hitters all season long. The nats are 8-3 against the fish this year while holding the marlins to a combined batting average of .203
7-1 +10.17 units the last 8 @ 1 unit per pick.
Or +20.24 units @ 2 units per pick, as some people pad their unit amounts.
Or +40.48 units @ 4 units per pick, as some people artificially inflate their unit amounts.
Or +101.70 units @ 10 units per pick, as some scumbag touts & other people superficially pad their unit amounts.
CINCINNATI -1½ +109 over St. Louis
6:40 PM EST. After a horrible start to the year, Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is back in Cy Young form and then some. Dude has a sick 60% groundball rate over his last five starts, not to mention an even sicker 14% hard hit ball rate over that same span. His ERA over that span is 4.58 but his xERA is 2.60, which is best in the majors over the past five-game. In other words, no starter in the game is performing better than Luis Castillo is right now. He’ll now face a Cardinals' nine that just lost four of their past seven games to the Pirates in back-to-back weekends.
In a massive series to start the week, this is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches of the year. We faded Jon Lester (LHP - St. L) last game out in Detroit and somehow this stiff managed to wiggle out of jam after jam in a 3-2 Cardinals win. Detroit outhit the Cards 11-5, had two base-runners thrown out and Lester came out smelling like a rose when in fact, he stunk the joint up again with a line-drive rate of 53%. We have not seen a line-drive rate of 53% ever. Lester’s xERA last game was 8.23 but as luck would have it, every ball was hit at someone. Over his past 25 frames, Lester has walked 11 and struck out 12. As we have reiterated before, Lester has experienced some control issues lately while running into too many bats. He is putrid, his arm is dead and he's pure fade material, thus, the attack on him must continue.