MLB writeups

Search

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
MINNESOTA -1½ -105 over Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Pirates, projected to lose more than 100 games by just about every publication before the season, currently stand at 9-11. After a 1-6 start, they’ve now won series over the Cubs, and Brewers, and the Tigers, and split a four gamer with the Padres. And they’ve done it without their most promising player, Ke’Bryan Hayes, who just had a setback recovering from a wrist injury suffered in the season’s first week.

[FONT=arial !important]This isn’t one of those feel-good snapshots, don’t worry; the Pirates still sport the fourth-worst run differential (-18) in all of baseball. If anything, the flaws in the team’s roster proved even more ruinous than the computers could predict. Starting shortstop Kevin Newman has an OBP higher than his SLG, and said OBP is .215. The entire team’s production from center field prior to last night, when Bryan Reynolds moved over to fill in, was a typo-like .086/.197/.103. Right fielder Gregory Polanco is posting a .592 OPS, which actually qualifies as a bounceback given how bad things were last year. It’s those usual fun April mirages that have kept the team afloat, like Adam Frazier (139 OPS+, 123 DRC+), Colin Moran (156 OPS+, 92 DRC+) and JT Brubaker (45 ERA-, 66 DRA- … okay, Brubaker might actually be pretty promising).

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Pittsburgh’s 9-11 record is more of a statement about 9-11 records in modern baseball. Glance through the team leaderboards and you’ll quickly discover that the Pirates look pretty average. On offense their walk, strikeout, and contact rates put them right around the middle; their fielding is generally fine, and their net offensive output by simple measures like OPS are, again, adequate. Similarly, again just looking at results rather than process, their bullpen has come in slightly above the middle by both ERA and xERA. The rotation is a shit-show, of course, but it’s hard to be average about everything.

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Except they aren’t really average, even if they look average, in the standings or in the leaderboards. This is the modern game, where 10 teams are acting like there’s a super league and twenty are just relieved there’s no relegation. The lack of balance is pulling the mean away from the median, and the Pirates are here, helpfully, to draw attention to that fact. Three teams in the National League are above .500. Half the divisions in baseball have a lone team with a positive run differential; none of those teams are in first.

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Yes, the preseason favorites for each AL division are currently in their respective basements. And yes, it’s only a 10th of the season. But what we’re seeing right now is a league with a bunch of superteams that haven’t, at least in terms of results, looked all that super. (And the Dodgers.) And in the vacuum created by that underperformance, instead of unexpected ascendance, you have the Pirates and the Mariners and just generalized chaos. Which is fine, but we all know a correction is coming and right now Pittsburgh has a better record than Minnesota. That cannot be and thus, it’s time to get in on the correction.




:think2:[/FONT]
 

Inittowinit

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
1,343
Seems pretty clear to me. Writer basically saying theirs regression coming for those shitty teams that are over performing and hes basing it on their run differential.
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
He lost that one. Pirates win 6-2. Let's see if they are a good fade going forward.
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
Oakland is a must fade in first game after ending long winning streak.


Maybe someone, but not both, will be happy after the game tonight:




Oakland -1½ +145 over TAMPA BAY


7:10 PM EST. Sean Manea (LHP - OAK) has a nice 5/22 BB/K split after 24 innings covering four starts, Dude just keeps posting solid ratios across the board with pinpoint control and a 12.9% swing & miss rate. What sticks out to us is that Manea will face a Rays’ squad that is awful against southpaws with a .696 OPS, a .228 BA and more K’s against lefties than any team in the majors.


Rich Hill (LHP - TAM) looks to turn things around against an Oakland club that’s had more success against LHP (.768 OPS) versus RHP (.689 OPS) and ranks second in OPS on the road thus far (.759). Hill has allowed exactly four earned runs in every start this season, resulting in an 8.82 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 0/75% dominant start/disaster start split. Hill has made it out of the fifth inning once, and has surpassed 80 pitches twice. In addition, his 11.4% swing & miss rate and 30% K% from 2019 seems to be a sign of the past, as he’s generated a 7.4% swing & miss rate and 19% K% in ’21. Oakland comes in hot and also has a serious advantage in every pitching and hitting category. That’s enough for us to move in.




 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
oakland -1½ +145 over tampa bay

7:10 pm est. Michael wacha (rhp - tam) comes into this start off a horror show, where he got only one swing-and-miss in 76 pitches. That’s hard to believe. However, the start prior to that, he went six scoreless innings and generated 17 swings-and-misses in a pretty decent start. Which version will show up today is a real question. Thing is, wacha has always struggled more versus same sided right-handed batters, and that has not changed this season, as they have a .866 ops with three hr against him. We’re pretty sure moneyball is aware of that fact and will therefore come at wacha with a bevy of right-handed bats.

frankie montas (rhp - oak) entered 2020 with some good breakout intrigue, but it was derailed by a back issue. The healthy version of montas looked dominant at times in 2019 due to his splitter. His swinging strike rate is on a steady climb the last couple of years (9.2%, 11.7%, 12.1% swk%) and prior to 2020, his groundball rate was surging too (35%, 44%, 49%). Montas comes into this start with a 6.75 era after four starts and just 20 innings pitched. However, his 63% strand rate has wreaked havoc on his surface stats, thus a correction to the good is inevitable. Montas was a strong bb/k rate of 5/20 and carries #2 rotation starting upside that you can get for cheaper than that here.



:think2:


??????????
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
[FONT=arial !important]Pittsburgh +171 over CHICAGO[/FONT]2:20 PM EST. Yesterday Zach Davies was -155 over Trevor Cahill and a 50/50 proposition and the Cubs escaped with a fortunate 3-2 victory. Today, it’s the same scenario only today, the Pirates are an even bigger price so in the spirit of “sticking with it”, we must do exactly that.

[FONT=arial !important]Trevor Williams (RHP - PIT) is priced today like he’s Ian Anderson and it’s preposterous. Here’s a pitcher that is trending the wrong way in every metric. Williams has walked 14 batters in 27 frames. He comes in with a ballooning WHIP of 1.74. In his last outing, he walked four batters and struck out two. He has a pedestrian swing & miss rate of 10.1% that was 4.2% in his last start. Williams’ history of underwhelming K rates void of pinpoint control dims the hopes of an effective pitch-to-contact future. This is a starter with a 6.00/6.12 ERA/xERA split.

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Wil Crowe (RHP - PIT) is not a good pitcher but then again, there’s not a big enough sample size to make that assessment. Crowe’s minor-league and very brief major league history combined with his overall skills scream swingman. He’s made two starts and comes in with a 4.66 ERA/5.74 xERA, which is right around the same marks as Williams. We’re not going to dwell on Crowe, as this has nothing to do with him. This is a straight fade against a starter and team that is overpriced to a large degree. The Cubs are 9-15 against righties.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
[/FONT]


:think2:[FONT=arial !important]


[/FONT]
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +132 over Texas

Logan Webb (RHP - SF) has been victimized by shaky control (11% BB%) after a strong showing this spring. A mediocre 60% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will keep that aspect of his game volatile. However, Webb has added more swing-and-miss to his game in 2021 (11.4%) compared to 2020 (9.3%) and his groundball rate is completely off the charts at 59%. That groundball rate has been his calling card forever so it’s not a small sample. Dude induces groundballs one after the other. Logan Webb’s 5.34 ERA is almost two full runs higher than his xERA and thus, a major correction to the good is forthcoming.

There are no corrections coming for Jordan Lyles (LHP - TEX). Every year it’s ugly for Lyles. This year he’s sitting with a 7.09 ERA after seven starts but he only has two losses against one win so it doesn't look as bad as it is. Even with a strand percentage derailment, his expected ratios suggest his wreckage was/is deserved while his xERA/xWHIP history reveals that his "normal" is treacherous...and as far as his disaster starts % history .... it's best not to look if you’re thinking of getting behind him.





Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.


Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.




"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
SeasonRecord
200447-69-2 (+3.00)
2005196-263-4 (-30.00)
2006188-242-16 (-33.00)
2007210-256-0 (+19.00)
2008168-224-3 (-36.00)
2009154-188-14 (-7.00)
2010233-264-4 (+54.00)
2011207-259-6 (-32.00)
2012181-214-0 (0.00)
2013234-248-0 (+63.00)
2014231-242-0 (+55.00)
2015242-287-0 (+12.00)
2016234-330-0 (-50.00)
2017245-300-0 (+46.00)
2018247-310-0 (+74.00)
2019188-278-0 (-71.00)
202081-93-0 (+29.00)
202137-62-0 (-29.00)

<tbody>
</tbody>


Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.

"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
L.A. Angels +117 over HOUSTON

8:10 PM EST. Seven starts in and Jose Urquidy (RHP - HOU) has acquitted himself nicely but with a woefully sub-par K% (29 ‘s in 41 IP) and a lot of help from fortunate hit and strand rates. Urquidy has a 3.51/4.75 ERA/xERA split to go along with a pretty ugly batted ball profile of 29% grounders, 24% line-drives and 47% fly-balls. That doesn’t change his outlook as a command-oriented back-of-the-rotation arm with reverse splits. Rosterable perhaps but not recommended as the betting chalk against such a superior hill opponent and against an Angels’ club swung around to its best platoon splits (.763 OPS vs. RHPs).

Andrew Heaney (LHP - LAA) has double-digit-strikeout gems in two of his last three starts. One of those starts (April 23) came against these Astronauts, who own an aggregate .694 OPS and .143 ISO against the Angel left-hander. Heaney owns an elite 15.7% swing and miss rate on the season and a 2.76 xERA over his last four starts. ‘Nuff said





------------------------------------------------



Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.

"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
"Passing on #MLB today

Lean to Diamondbacks and Seth Frankoff. If Frankoff loses, he can Fuckoff."


:missingte


giphy.gif



 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
12:35 pm est. The giants are 27-16 and reside in first place in the toughest division in the league. The reds are 19-22 and in fourth place in the weakest division in the nl. San francisco has won four in a row, it is 7-3 over its last 10 and have a run differential of +42. Cincinnati has dropped three in a row, it has four wins in its last 10 games and has a run differential of -7. Advantage frisco. No check that, big advantage, frisco.

a resurgent johnny cueto (rhp - sf) takes on a potentially emergent tyler mahle (rhp - cin). San francisco’s longtime starter has made just five starts divided by a dl trip, but has shown his best velocity since 2016 while cincinnati’s man has maintained last year’s gains. Even if we give an edge to tyler mahle, so what. The better pitcher doesn’t always win and besides, mahle has a 87.4% strand rate, which is in the top 5% of starters. Mahle’s 43 k’s in 38 innings is not supported by his league average 11.7% swing & miss rate. Mahle is decent enough to be sure but he and the reds are not worthy of this price against a vastly superior team that cannot wait to get back to the park.



sf +130 ml
 

X-Files

fbi
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Messages
24,350
CINCINNATI -1½ +140 over Milwaukee

4:10 PM EST. Sonny Gray (RHP - CIN) is looking to rebound from allowing 2 HR in a rough start against the Giants. The Reds were laboring badly until The [FONT=arial !important]Cure Crew showed last night. No offense has been worse the last two weeks than that of the Milwaukee Brewers (.587 OPS). The Brewers have a left-leaning lineup which is struggling against right-handed pitchers (.641 OPS). Gray is tough on lefty bats, and owns a 3.14 xERA over his last five games started...and he's a true ace.

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Brett Anderson’s (LHP - MIL) brittle arm tossed more innings over two months in 2020 than he did in four seasons earlier in his career. Anderson’s groundball lean limits his blowup risk, but it's becoming more than offset by a lack of whiffs and eroding velocity. When we look at his groundball rate (his only redeeming skill), we see that’s starting to decline too (52% over his first two starts, then 44% over his next two, then 41% over his last two). Anderson has made six starts and has a lousy 14 K’s in 24 frames. His swing and miss rate his past two games is 4.7%, which is the lowest in the majors over any two game start by any pitcher. Anderson’s dominant start/disaster start split and ugly xERA reinforce his limited upside. Dude's workload is starting to take a toll. Brett Anderson and the Crew are in the same underdog price range as Minnesota with Kenta Maeda going and that, my friends, is beyond absurd. Cincinnati is today’s most undervalued favorite.

[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]

[/FONT]
Info FYI & consideration.
Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration:
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.

"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"[FONT=arial !important]

[/FONT]
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,024,324
Messages
12,736,988
Members
94,801
Latest member
byblocks