NFL Notes

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"Getting questions on it and yes, the 1st Quarter NFL algorithm will be back...for 2021.

The NFL 1st Quarter Algorithm is 49-36 for 57.6% winners and +11.9 units! Record is 2019...when first posted...to present.

Nothing for tonight, but likely Sunday!"



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"Highest public concentrations...

(NFL)
No concentration, one game. Public very small to Dallas +8 & OV52

(MLB)
NY Mets -171 & KC/BAL UN9 (-105)

Prices are where the highest concentrations exist. Current price may be much better or worse."
 
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"Highest public concentrations...

...San Francisco -8.5 & CLE/KC OV54.5

...Atlanta -282 & SF/CHC OV9 (-116)

Prices are where the highest concentrations exist. Current price may be much better or worse."
 
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Info FYI & consideration.
Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.


"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
"Wagering on sports can be a roller coaster ride."


"Passing is not winning, but passing is always better than losing!"
“Show me someone who has never failed, and I will show you a coward.”
"I don't advise to fade or follow anything. I report & track to let you decide."

“…it ain't how hard you hit; it's about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. How much you can take, and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!”

"Be cautious of regression after such a strong run..."
Been a great run, caution advised given recent luck.
Been a great run, caution advised.

"I would suggest to always bet small in terms of Roll % (no more than 1% of Roll).*
* this advice is not for professional punters, they don't need my advice."



----------------------------------



"Gambling can be addictive. Please know your limits and gamble responsibly."
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/future/betting-rules





-------------------------------------






Free winners and keeping the touts honest thread...exposing the touts
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1183019
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1183832


Free "Winners. Want to know who's winning at sports betting. Look here":
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1179690


Secrets to winning at gambling:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1143182
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...887&highlight=


"Won 200 units from Dec.19 thru Feb/20.":
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...034&highlight=

"Responsible Gaming...Need Help"?:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/future/r...gaming/curacao
 
Joined
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S is a long term proven winner at the NFL, not just a short term lucky winner:


200449-35-3 (+26.00)
200551-50-0 (+4.00)
200646-44-0 (+11.00)
200744-51-1 (-16.00)
200847-37-3 (+24.00)
200938-37-3 (+6.00)
201051-41-0 (+22.00)
201148-51-4 (-3.00)
201246-44-0 (+2.00)
201347-46-0 (+5.00)
201459-66-0 (-17.00)
201541-64-0 (-45.00)
201645-73-0 (-51.00)
201756-55-0 (+19.00)
201881-57-0 (+64.00)
201965-59-0 (+16.00)
202055-62-0 (-14.00)
20219-6-0 (+9.00)



The vast majority (over 95%?) of sports gamblers are lifelong losers. It seems unlikely that S is.


"In 2020, we ended +117 units for our 9th winning season in past 11 years." That is, all sports combined.
 
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"S"'s Golf picks record is only since 2016. His MMA since 2006. CFL since 2005. All his other sports records are since 2004.


In Golf he's + 30 units overall.


MLB: about +50 units.


NFL around +50 units won.


CFL - Canadian Football League - about +20 units.


NHL +100 units.


NBA around -140 units.


MMA about +15 units.


In NCAAF approximately +150 units.


In NCAAB nearly +170 units.


College sports are his best.


Picks are generally 2 units apiece.


And all of them have always been absolutely free!
 
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H is another long term proven sports gambling winner:

H: 64-43-1 (59.81%), his last 108 picks, +15.27 units, since May 18/21, daily best bet thread. One unit per pick allowed, all sports combined.


Last 108 picks (in rows of 10, from the oldest to the most recent):






WWWWWWWWWW (10-0)


LWWWLWLWWL..........(6-4)


LWWWWWWWLW......(8-2)


LLLWWWLLWL.......... ...(4-6)


WLLWWLLWWW......... (6-4)


WLLWLWLWLW.............(5-5)


WWWWLWWLLW........(7-3)


LWPLWWLWWL...........(5-4-1)


WLLLLWLLWW...............(4-6)


LLWLLLLWLW.................(3-7)


WWLWWWWL..... .......(6-2)






7-2 last 9 picks.


9-9 last 18 picks.


27-22-1 last 50 picks.


37-34-1 last 72 picks.


64-43-1 last 108 picks.






H: 523-430-19 +74.31 UNITS (all sports picks combined, 1 unit per pick, daily best bet thread, update 12 AM Aug.10/2020).


H: 626-530-20 +77.41 UNITS (all sports picks combined, 1 unit per pick, daily best bet thread, update 12 AM June 14/21).


H: 648-546-20 +82.83 UNITS (all sports picks combined, 1 unit per pick, daily best bet thread, update 12 AM July 31/21).


H: 669-568-21 +77.74 UNITS (all sports picks combined, 1 unit per pick, daily best bet thread, update per 12 AM September 14/21).



H: 116-101-5 +3.45 UNITS (Feb 10, 2016)


H: 150-118-6 +18.85 UNITS (June 12, 2016)


H: 211-161-8 +31.90 UNITS (January 17, 2017)


H: 247-186-8 +37.97 UNITS (May 28, 2017)


H: 296-223-8 +48.93 UNITS (January 4, 2018)


H: 343-280-14 +40.88 UNITS (July 25, 2018)


H: 383-322-15 +50.86 UNITS (January 1, 2019)


H: 449-384-19 +52.14 UNITS (July 11, 2019)


H: 512-421-19 +74.35 UNITS (January 3, 2020)


H: 516-430-19 +67.31 UNITS (July 3, 2020)


H: 512-421-19 +74.35 UNITS (January 2, 2021)


H: 648-546-20 +82.83 UNITS (July 31, 2021)






Most recent bets:






MLB parlay (July 6) Phillies -137 X NYY -157 = +183................................Win.


MLB Toronto (July 7) first five (1H) -198 ML .................................................Win.


MLB Cincinnati (July 8) +105 ML........................................................................Loss.


MLB LAA/SEA (July 9) under 9 -20.....................................................................Loss.


MLB LAA/SEA (July 10) under 8.5 -10...............................................................Win.


NBA Milwaukee -3.5 (July 11) -122....................................................................Win.


NBA Phoenix (July 14) 1Q +1.5 -103.................................................................Win.


MLB Houston (July 16) -121 ML..........................................................................Win.


MLB BAL/KC (July 17) under 9.5 -113..............................................................Loss.


MLB Phila. (July 20) -120 ML................................................................................Loss.


NBA Milwaukee (July 20) +150 pre series series bet vs Phoenix. .........Win.


NBA Phoenix (July 20, posted 18th) +5.5 -110............................................Loss.


NBA Mikal Bridges (July 20, posted 19th) under 11.5 pts -113.............Win.


MLB SFG TT (July 22) under 3.5 -06..................................................................Loss.


MLB Oak/Sea (July 22) 1H under 4 +100........................................................Win.


MLB SFG TT (July 24, posted 23rd) over 4.5 -113.......................................Loss.


MLB KC +111 (July 26) ML...................................................................................Win.


MLB CWS -140 (July 27) ML................................................................................Win.


MLB DET/MIN (July 28) over 10 -103..............................................................Win.


MLB Oakland (July 29) -137 ML.........................................................................Win.


MLB Oakland (July 30) -117 ML.........................................................................Win.


MLB CWS (July 31) -148 ML................................................................................Loss








MLB OAK/LAA (Aug.1) over 9.5 -109..............................................................Win.


MLB LAA 1H (Aug.3) -120 ML............................................................................Win.


MLB Colorado (Aug.4) -166 ML........................................................................Loss.


MLB Daniel Lynch (Aug. 5) under 3.5 strikeouts -113..............................Loss.


NFL-X Steelers/Cowboys (Aug.5) under 34 -110.......................................Win.


MLB Boston (August 6) +140 ML....................................................................Loss.


MLB Bos/Tor (August 8) over 9 -108..............................................................Win.


MLB KC 1H (August 9) +145 ML.......................................................................Push.


MLB Phila (August 10) +147 ML......................................................................Loss.


NFL-X Pittsburg (August 12) +1 -105............................................................Win.


NFL-X Pitt/Phila. (August 12) over 36 -110.................................................Win.


NFL-X Dall 1H (August 13) +1 -109...............................................................Loss.


NFL-X LAC +1.5 (August 14) -115, live bet.................................................Win.


MLB Toronto (August 15) -106 ML................................................................Win.


MLB Cleveland (August 16) +116..................................................................Loss.


MLB Colorado (August 17) 1H -110 ML......................................................Win.


MLB Houston (August 18) -170 ML..............................................................Loss.


NFL-X PHIL +1.5 (August 19) -110................................................................Loss.


MLB parlay (August 20) Tor -260 X Bos -285 = -115.............................Loss.


Boxing u 10.5 (August 21) +186 Pacquiao fight......................................Loss.


MLB SF -109 ML (August 22)...........................................................................Win.


MLB Oakland (August 23) -125 ML..............................................................Loss.


MLB Minn 1H (August 24) +200 ML............................................................Loss.


MLB Tor/CWS (August 25) 1H under 4.5 -120.........................................Win.


MLB NYY (August 26) -106 ML.......................................................................Win.


NFL Detroit (August 27) +2 -105..................................................................Loss.


NCAAF NEB/ILL (August 28) under 24 -115 2H......................................Loss.


MLB SEA -148 (August29) ML.......................................................................Win.


MLB NYY -1.5 (August 30) -120....................................................................Loss.






NCAAF East Carolina (Sept.2) TT over 22.5 -13......................................Loss.


NCAAF ECU +10.5 -116 (Sept.2)...................................................................Loss.


NCAAF MSU/Northwestern (Sept.3) under 45.5 -110.........................Loss.


NCAAF Arkansas -19.5 (Sept.4) -110........................................................Win.


MLB OAK/TOR 1H (Sept.5) under 5 -109.................................................Loss.


MLB Oakland (Sept.8) -148 ML....................................................................Win.


NFL Dallas +7.5 (Sept.9) -108......................................................................Win.


NFL Dal Lamb (Sept.9) more receptions TB Evans -130...................Win.


MLB TOR -1.5 (Sept.10) -170........................................................................Loss.


NCAAF Air Force (Sept.11) -6 -106...........................................................Win.


NFL Houston (Sept.12) +3.5 -130..............................................................Win.


NFL Den/NYG (Sept.12) under 42 -110...................................................Win.


NFL Detroit (Sept.12) +10.5 -130..............................................................Win.


NFL LV Raiders (Sept.13) +3 -110 1H.....................................................Loss.




July 6-30 record: 14-8
Aug.1-31 record: 13-15-1
Sept. 1-30 record: 8-6


NFL-X YTD 2021 season: 4-3, +0.76 units.
NFL YTD 2021/2022 season: 5-1, +3.90 units
NCAAF 2021-2022 season: 2-4, -2.54 units


Pending bets: None.














 
Joined
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"Highest public concentrations...

(NCAAF)
No concentration, one game. Lean to ULL -20...

(NFL)
No concentration, one game. Medium to Wash -3 & OV40.5

(MLB)
NYY -233 & NYY/BAL OV10 (-105)

Prices are where the highest concentrations exist. Current price may be much better or worse."
 
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"K" is on:

"474 Mia/NE Under 44.5"

K: "489-470-20 +19.99 UNITS"




K is on:

270 Carolina +4

K: 494-471-20 +23.89 UNITS (NCAAF: NC State OVER 6.5 wins -105 and TCU OVER 7.5 wins -120; Bills -150 to win AFC East)

K likes NE/NYJ under:

"The Under looks good the NE/Jet game. I played Under in last week's game between the Pats and Fins, reasoning was, two young QB's, including one making his first start, going up against two elite defensive minds in Hoodie and Flores, a division game, meaning both teams knew each other very well, and with neither team wanting to make a mistake I figured both offenses would be somewhat conservative, with each coach waiting for the other team to make the big mistake, eventually NE was the team to make that big mistake and it cost them the game. This one feels similar, the Jets don't have as good a defense as Miami, but Saleh is a great defensive mind, and now that he's got some tape on Mac Jones, granted a one game sample, but I expect Saleh to come up with a good enough scheme to limit the Pat's offense, on the other side you have Hoodie scheming against the rookie Zach Wilson, I have a hard time believing the Jets will be able to get much done offensively, he didn't do much last week against the Panthers, so I'm not expecting many points from him in this one, I think the Pats win a low scoring game, 24-16 looks about right"

Line presently at 43:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/totals/
 
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"Highest public concentrations...


...
LA Rams -4 & DAL/LAC OV55


...LA Dodgers -190 & BAL/BOS OV9.5 (-106)


...Prices are where the highest concentrations exist. Current price may be much better or worse."
 
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K likes NE/NYJ under:

"The Under looks good the NE/Jet game. I played Under in last week's game between the Pats and Fins, reasoning was, two young QB's, including one making his first start, going up against two elite defensive minds in Hoodie and Flores, a division game, meaning both teams knew each other very well, and with neither team wanting to make a mistake I figured both offenses would be somewhat conservative, with each coach waiting for the other team to make the big mistake, eventually NE was the team to make that big mistake and it cost them the game. This one feels similar, the Jets don't have as good a defense as Miami, but Saleh is a great defensive mind, and now that he's got some tape on Mac Jones, granted a one game sample, but I expect Saleh to come up with a good enough scheme to limit the Pat's offense, on the other side you have Hoodie scheming against the rookie Zach Wilson, I have a hard time believing the Jets will be able to get much done offensively, he didn't do much last week against the Panthers, so I'm not expecting many points from him in this one, I think the Pats win a low scoring game, 24-16 looks about right"

Line presently at 43:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/totals/

"My NFL 1st Quarter Algorithm is a fan favorite and already perfect on the season at 1-0 for +1.0 units. For today it is showing value on...

Jacksonville +0.5 (-116) over Denver"

2-0.

That may do it for this thread. Ending on a winning note.
 

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