Running dogs 2018-2019

[Mofome2]

NC since the line has went up to OD -5 would they still be a play or is it soley on the opener when they were a dog? Thxs

 

[NoCoke]

NC since the line has went up to OD -5 would they still be a play or is it soley on the opener when they were a dog? Thxs

Yeah, that’s where it gets kind of tricky. I thought only the dogs were supposed to be played. All of the line movements make it a mess. Ohio State is a running dog now and Jax State technically opened as an underdog but quickly moved to a favorite before most books had the line up.

 

[NoCoke]

Ahhhh.. OK so I interpreted "opponent" as their bowl opponent, not previous opponents throughout the season.

So I took oregon's offensive YPC and subtracted Liberty's defensive YPC allowed, and vice versa (Liberty oYPC minus Oregons dYPC). Comparing these caluclated values- if the underdog has the advantage (which I called a "positive differential") then that made them a play.

Hopefully there is still an edge to these teams.
Interestingly, I placed my bets soon after opening lines came out and many of them have become more favorable (meaning I got crappy lines)

I didn't see stats for the average opponent YPC and defYPC. May I ask where you get that data from?

Tried to send you a DM but it wouldn’t let me.