So i decided to do some "entertainment value" style bets for the superbowl this year, should make it more interesting to watch & maybe win a little $. However, i wanna start with my legitimate total play that i have been thinking about all week:
Denver/Carolina Under 45.5, -110 - Let me begin by stating: Yes i do believe in numbers, statistical data, systems, and analysis to be successful at capping sports. I look at that stuff almost daily for NCAAB but there are a few games during the year in all sports where i think just common sense overrules research and spreadsheets. This play happens to be one of those, ive debated on looking deep into this & tonight i decided against that and pulled the trigger. Here is why:
-Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has proven they can stop high powered offenses = Carolina Low Total
-As much as i love Peyton Manning he is old and has trouble scoring the football = Denver Low Total
Point is that i believe both teams will have trouble scoring, so i bet the under. I apologize in advance to those looking for more substance, i am too a fan of a detailed breakdown - in this case & especially this game people over-analyze it so i tried to counter that thought process. Thanks and let me know your thoughts, arguments, criticism, or words of encouragement, i love a good discussion!
The rest of these were geared towards enjoying the game, but i didn't just randomly select them, i do believe based on past performances and watching both teams this season that these are the best value based upon odds and probability (bovada):
Note: yes the first two plays are virtually the same thing, they had it on there twice w/ different wording and i didnt realize til after!
Total Risk: $150.00
To Win: $766.50
Enjoy the weekend and any wagers you're placing! God Bless
-ville
Denver/Carolina Under 45.5, -110 - Let me begin by stating: Yes i do believe in numbers, statistical data, systems, and analysis to be successful at capping sports. I look at that stuff almost daily for NCAAB but there are a few games during the year in all sports where i think just common sense overrules research and spreadsheets. This play happens to be one of those, ive debated on looking deep into this & tonight i decided against that and pulled the trigger. Here is why:
-Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has proven they can stop high powered offenses = Carolina Low Total
-As much as i love Peyton Manning he is old and has trouble scoring the football = Denver Low Total
Point is that i believe both teams will have trouble scoring, so i bet the under. I apologize in advance to those looking for more substance, i am too a fan of a detailed breakdown - in this case & especially this game people over-analyze it so i tried to counter that thought process. Thanks and let me know your thoughts, arguments, criticism, or words of encouragement, i love a good discussion!
The rest of these were geared towards enjoying the game, but i didn't just randomly select them, i do believe based on past performances and watching both teams this season that these are the best value based upon odds and probability (bovada):
| Play # | Reference # | Wager Details | Selection | Risk | To Win | Result |
| 1 | Single #641510019 | The first scoring play of the game will be? | Panthers Field Goal (+350) | $15.00 | $52.50 | TBD |
| 2 | Single #641510018 | The first score of the game - Exact outcome | Panthers Field Goal (+350) | $20.00 | $70.00 | TBD |
| 3 | Single #641510017 | Score at the end of 1st Quarter | Panthers lead by 1-6 points (+400) | $20.00 | $80.00 | TBD |
| 4 | Single #641510016 | Total Combined Points - Entire Game | 31-40 (+275) | $20.00 | $55.00 | TBD |
| 5 | Single #641510015 | First Half Margin of Victory | Broncos by 1 to 3 points (+900) | $35.00 | $315.00 | TBD |
| 6 | Single #641510014 | Alternate Total | Under 40.5 (+170) | $20.00 | $34.00 | TBD |
| 7 | Single #641510013 | Full Game Margin of Victory | Broncos by 7-12 points (+800) | $20.00 | $160.00 | TBD |
Note: yes the first two plays are virtually the same thing, they had it on there twice w/ different wording and i didnt realize til after!
Total Risk: $150.00
To Win: $766.50
Enjoy the weekend and any wagers you're placing! God Bless
-ville
