***** 100% Thursday Night Trend *****

[TheComputerGroup]

The home team on Thursday nights in divisional matchups is 6-0-1 ATS this year, the push was Cards +6, & their extra point was blocked by Seattle at the end of game.......it has one more game this year, Atlanta......to the bank!!!

Also, if Atlanta loses this game, the Xmas eve match up at New Orleans is worthless, & we know the NFL doesn't like meaningless divisional games on TV........Atlanta wins tonight, & Saints wax the Saints on Dec 24th!

 

[Unabated]

Saints wax the Saints on Dec 24th!

haha...im with ya on the falcons

 

[TheComputerGroup]

haha...im with ya on the falcons

Lol, I meant Saints wax the Falcons on Xmas eve, lol......

 

[bradyisgod]

Hey TCG. I think as far as the trends go we need to be careful when it only involves 7 games. I could flip a coin 7 times and it land heads every time no problem. Incredibly small sample. With that said, this trend is definitely an interesting stat we should keep an eye on. These Thursday games definitely tend to favor the home team over larger sample sizes which helps back your trend here. I think you're right about it being an amazing spot for the Falcons (hence the late line movement). I'm on them as well -1. GLGL!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Hey TCG. I think as far as the trends go we need to be careful when it only involves 7 games. I could flip a coin 7 times and it land heads every time no problem. Incredibly small sample. I think you're right about it being an amazing spot for the Falcons (hence the late line movement). I'm on them as well -1. GLGL!

I agree about the trends man, they can be dangerous, but everything has lined up for Atlanta in this spot.

 

[bradyisgod]

I agree about the trends man, they can be dangerous, but everything has lined up for Atlanta in this spot.

Right. I edited my post to add some things, can read it again. You got me before I could finish

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Right. I edited my post to add some things, can read it again. You got me before I could finish

I concur

 

[ceeDOTesquire]

good luck, but don't forget the NFL can always flex a better matchup to primetime on xmas eve.

 

[TIGERTOY]

Good luck my friend.

 

[chonce]

I agree about the trends man, they can be dangerous, but everything has lined up for Atlanta in this spot.

Agree on both points. Not a bad spot for ATL, 7 is a tiny sample size. But reverse line movement suggests ATL as well. I am on NO TT OVER 24, but am starting to wonder if I should've taken ATL instead. I suppose it is possible both hit

 

[billbeater]

The home team on Thursday nights in divisional matchups is 6-0-1 ATS this year, the push was Cards +6, & their extra point was blocked by Seattle at the end of game.......it has one more game this year, Atlanta......to the bank!!!

Also, if Atlanta loses this game, the Xmas eve match up at New Orleans is worthless, & we know the NFL doesn't like meaningless divisional games on TV........Atlanta wins tonight, & Saints wax the Saints on Dec 24th!

Intersting. Basically 7-0 let's say.
But the last time the Saint$ played there, they got waxed, but still gave us the tasty back door Cover!
I say go Against this 7-0 bullshit, with the better Team, with the better Run-game, which will
in turn set up the better Play-Action-game!!!
Saint$ Rock Around the Christmas Tree Tonight!
peanuts-christmasgif
TNF LOTY
:toast:

 

[bradyisgod]

Just a quick addition of stats for home teams ATS on TNF:


2017: 8-6-1 (57%)


Last 3 seasons: 27-22-2 (55%)


All time: 86-74-5 (54%)


This at least tells us that in general the long term trend is for the home team to cover the spread on TNF. This obviously doesn't factor in finding a nice spot like tonight on top of this data.

 

[bradyisgod]

When you add in the conference filter, this makes the play even better. Again, this doesn't include the spot, just the raw data. You can view my filter in the link below with conference added to the above filter. It's much better to back the short term trend with something longer and more solidified to see if we are on the right track.

All time: 78-54-4 (56.1%)


https://gyazo.com/062469a54e33b8a8c36ef9a6bf01ac56

 

[chonce]

When you add in the conference filter, this makes the play even better. Again, this doesn't include the spot, just the raw data. You can view my filter in the link below with conference added to the above filter. It's much better to back the short term trend with something longer and more solidified to see if we are on the right track.

All time: 78-54-4 (56.1%)


https://gyazo.com/062469a54e33b8a8c36ef9a6bf01ac56

Good stuff, BIG!

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

covering is all that matters!!!! we'll take it....both would have felt pissed off if they lost, NO would think they were unlucky to have injuries and get so close, Atl would think if they don't make those horrible/freak int's the game isn't close...both had their chances but the Atl D came up big in the 2nd half.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

covering is all that matters!!!! we'll take it....both would have felt pissed off if they lost, NO would think they were unlucky to have injuries and get so close, Atl would think if they don't make those horrible/freak int's the game isn't close...both had their chances but the Atl D came up big in the 2nd half.

3 picks by Ryan, & Atlanta's coach declines a holding penalty on Saints which would take them back to 3rd & 11, instead of 4th & 1.......WTF is going on were my words. I can't see how Atlanta has any chance of beating the Saints in the New Orleans dome on Xmas eve.......Matty "meltdown" will show up, & Sean Payton is tons better than Dan Quin.

With that said, we squeaked out a nice win with Atlanta tonight.

 

[bradyisgod]

Good call TCG. We have to feel good about 3 matty ice picks and still somehow win the game. You should not win a game when you throw 3 ints. I'm sure NO will bring it in the superdome.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

good luck, but don't forget the NFL can always flex a better matchup to primetime on xmas eve.

I just looked at the Xmas eve schedule, there is no night game, just 1pm & 4pm games.

 

[BZ]

Nice call!