10 Reasons why Horse Handicapping is so difficult

[GreenThumbRacing]

These are just 10 of the reasons why horse handicapping is so difficult. I post my "top" choice per race, others post 3,4,5 choices per race. They then come on and say look how good I did, which in reality is total BS.
With my top choice it's either win or lose, my win rate over the months are 14-18% my top choice runs 2nd 19-23% of the time.
Since I've only been posting here the past week, I'm batting around 11% winners which is not good at all. My top choice has been 1st or 2nd 24% of the time which also is poor.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be doing a in depth review of all my choices starting tomorrow Weds. I'll be breaking down certain types of races,Maidens,Claiming,ALW,Stakes.

While I have struggled for a few days, you'll see how I do. One more point every choice I post I truly do put real money on my choices.

Any person who studies horses can post 3,4 choices a race and say wow I hit 75-80% of my plays, that's easy. Let them post just one choice per race, watch how "easy" becomes very difficult.

Enjoy these 10 statements:

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]1. The horse may not be in the mood to give its best today and there is nothing anyone can do about it.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]2. The horse has physical problems either known or unknown to the trainer, but certainly unknown to you.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]3. The horse may not like the track surface today even though it may have liked it in the past.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]4. The horse may not like the weather including rain, snow, hot, cold, etc.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]5. The horse may hurt itself during the race which causes it to slow down or stop.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]6. The horse may have equipment that breaks during the race.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]7. The horse encounters problems during the race such as a poor start, checked, boxed in, bumped, bothered and an assortment of other problems.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]8. The horse’s jockey accidentally makes a mistake during the race which causes the horse to lose. This happens frequently. A jockey may also intentionally make a mistake during the race sometimes known as "stiffing" the horse. If you believe that stiffing does not happen then that is being naive. Stiffing happens in all types of horse racing. There certainly has to be a number of stiff artists who do not get caught.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]9. The horse’s trainer because of ignorance, improperly trains the horse causing it to lose. Trainers have been convicted of intentionally improperly training horses to get them to lose so that they can cash a bet on another horse in the race. Trainers have also been convicted of using illegal drugs to enhance the performance of a horse to try to get them to win. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]10. There are many more problems that could be added to this list.[/FONT]

 

[Lt1]

Sounds like a lot of excuse making. Picking only 1 horse is great for the ego but not for the bankroll. Each player is free to approach the game as he/she sees fit. The name of the game is profit. I wish you good skill in your pursuit of victory.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Sounds like a lot of excuse making. Picking only 1 horse is great for the ego but not for the bankroll. Each player is free to approach the game as he/she sees fit. The name of the game is profit. I wish you good skill in your pursuit of victory.

How are those points excuses?
Has nothing to do with "ego" it is all about the bankroll. If say you post 4 horses per race, make a $1 tri box = $12 $1 exacta box = $12
then $2 WP on each choice = $16 that adds up to $40 per race over 9 races per day = $360

I agree each player is free to approach wagering anyway they seem fit, profit is the reason why we do this.

 

[Lt1]

First you assume that everyone boxes exs and tris. Secondly you assume that one plays every race. And the 10 points are definitely excuses. One either wins or loses a wager. And how about adding #11 bad capping or 12 playing races one should not be involved in. The last 2 you can control the others you can't. James Quinn in his book The Complete Handicapper on page 367 list 5 types of races that should be avoided especially when losing. I had learned this yrs before from another source and practice it everyday.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

First you assume that everyone boxes exs and tris. Secondly you assume that one plays every race. And the 10 points are definitely excuses. One either wins or loses a wager. And how about adding #11 bad capping or 12 playing races one should not be involved in. The last 2 you can control the others you can't. James Quinn in his book The Complete Handicapper on page 367 list 5 types of races that should be avoided especially when losing. I had learned this yrs before from another source and practice it everyday.

Well when any handicapper tells their 2,3,4 choice wins and pays $x.xx yes I assume they box, exactas and trifectas. If a handicapper posts their choices on any forum for public viewing it's assumed they are betting that race.
Those 10 points are not excuses, no one knows how a horse will run until the gates open. A horse can break on their knees, get checked,
blocked, etc.
One point you've made is valid any wager can only be won or lost. Just like a Math problem, only one correct answer.
Your point 11, bad handicapping is in the eyes of the person who says that. Point 12 once again is a opinion of yours. Who gives any author or person the right to say avoid a certain race, it's just conjecture.
So I'll just stick to my ways & you yours, so be it.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

One more point to be made, if any handicapper posts 4 choices in a 6 horse field of course their win rate would be astronomical. Even better in a 5 horse field, funny how their percentage drops when they handicap a 10,11,12 horse field.

 

[Lt1]

Again you assume wrong re boxing. Did you ever hear of keying. As for point 12 that is a direct fact based on my record keeping and I would give the benefit of the doubt that Quinn also kept records since he is one of the most respect handicappers in the main stream world. Point 11 is valid if one continues to lose and makes no attempt to improve. Well you have a point about 5 horse fields but speaking only for myself I bet 2 horses to wp when the odds are right. I accept no lower then 5/2 and dutch 60-40. Since 1990 I have maintained a 63 to 65 % win rate and as you can image that encompasses all types of field sizes. And for the record I may list a race with 5 horses doesn't mean I play it. I give results based on how the picks ran so folks can see if my info may or may not be helpful. I do not suggest that people play my picks or how to play them . They are for information only.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Again you assume wrong re boxing. Did you ever hear of keying. As for point 12 that is a direct fact based on my record keeping and I would give the benefit of the doubt that Quinn also kept records since he is one of the most respect handicappers in the main stream world. Point 11 is valid if one continues to lose and makes no attempt to improve. Well you have a point about 5 horse fields but speaking only for myself I bet 2 horses to wp when the odds are right. I accept no lower then 5/2 and dutch 60-40. Since 1990 I have maintained a 63 to 65 % win rate and as you can image that encompasses all types of field sizes. And for the record I may list a race with 5 horses doesn't mean I play it. I give results based on how the picks ran so folks can see if my info may or may not be helpful. I do not suggest that people play my picks or how to play them . They are for information only.

Mister Lt1 you're a gentleman & obviously a student of the game, it was my pleasure having this discussion with you.

 

[Lt1]

Likewise GT. Good skill to you in your capping.

 

[Prof_Factor]

The #1 reason my horse lost: I posted it online!

 

[Lt1]

LOL Prof.

 

[Pulledclear]

How are those points excuses?
Has nothing to do with "ego" it is all about the bankroll. If say you post 4 horses per race, make a $1 tri box = $12 $1 exacta box = $12
then $2 WP on each choice = $16 that adds up to $40 per race over 9 races per day = $360

I agree each player is free to approach wagering anyway they seem fit, profit is the reason why we do this.

A $1 4 horse tri box is $24 NOT $12. Handicapping is easy. Its the wagering part most people have difficulty with.

 

[Biz]

First you assume that everyone boxes exs and tris. Secondly you assume that one plays every race. And the 10 points are definitely excuses. One either wins or loses a wager. And how about adding #11 bad capping or 12 playing races one should not be involved in. The last 2 you can control the others you can't. James Quinn in his book The Complete Handicapper on page 367 list 5 types of races that should be avoided especially when losing. I had learned this yrs before from another source and practice it everyday.

LT,

There is a guy here that screams out his winners. The guy posts 4 horses per race, and the winner can come from any of the 4 as well as the exacta. He is a proven loser doing it this way, just as Green Thumb said. You can't win boxing 4 horses every race, or playing each of your 4 horses to win. Also, you can't sustain your bankroll betting that way in the real world. Its fantasy horsey racing.

I agree LT, keying is the way to go. I key over 4 horses in tris/supers.

Curious, what were the types of races Quinn says to avoid??

 

[Lt1]

Hi Biz here are the races that Quinn refers to and I learned by record keeping and from the University of hard knocks ie losing money.
#1 Maidens on the turf
#2 Mdn claimers under $50,000
#3 Claiming races for 3yr olds only
#4 3&up claimers for n2lifeime.
#5 All 2yr old mdn claimers,and 2yr claiming routes. I avoid all 2yr old races.

Also I pass any race with more then 1 unknown factor.
Tim

 

[Lt1]

I have found the most reliable races to play are those for 3&up on the dirt. Most of my plays are confine to them. I pass 2yrold and straight 3 yr old races as well as most mdn and turf races. I will play some of the last 2 if all horses have started at least 3 times on the surface involved.

 

[Prof_Factor]

I'm just the opposite.

I look for Maiden Claimers. The cheaper, the better. It's what I look for first on a card. I tend to avoid Maiden Special Weights.
I like undocumented form .... first timers or surface switches, or lots of 1st time turfers in single race.
1st time turfers happens a lot at Woodbine. Love those!
I also like distance switches, which is why I like middle distance races most. They get sprinters and routers.
I prefer 2yo and 3yo races. Especially 3yo's coming off winter breaks.

I guess I like races that can't be handicapped by a computer. More skillz required.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

I'm just the opposite.

I look for Maiden Claimers. The cheaper, the better. It's what I look for first on a card. I tend to avoid Maiden Special Weights.
I like undocumented form .... first timers or surface switches, or lots of 1st time turfers in single race.
1st time turfers happens a lot at Woodbine. Love those!
I also like distance switches, which is why I like middle distance races most. They get sprinters and routers.
I prefer 2yo and 3yo races. Especially 3yo's coming off winter breaks.

I guess I like races that can't be handicapped by a computer. More skillz required.

Great reply Prof, I appreciate your candor.

 

[Lt1]

To each their as long as it works for you and you profit nothing else matters.