| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 1 | 0.00 | +7.88 |
| Season to Date | 5 | 1 | 0.00 | +7.88 |
#754 Texas +4 over Texas A&M
7:00 PM EST. Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal in the Bahamas.
The Aggies are 4-0 and have been crushing the opposition. As a result, A&M has moved into #25 in the rankings. When a team hits the polls, the market pays attention. What that market will see is an Aggies team that has won by an average of 33 points a game. That’s nice but it’s not all peaches and cream. The Aggies have played four marshmallows in South Carolina Upstate, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M Corpus Christi and finally UNC Asheville. There was no betting line in any of those games because they were complete mismatches. Texas A&M spent most of February and March on the bubble last year. Unfortunately for the Aggies, they struggled at the end of the year, losing three of their last four regular season games. A decent run in the SEC Tournament could have gotten Texas A&M into the NCAA Tournament, but they lost in their first game to Auburn, a team they crushed 80-55 less than two weeks earlier in the middle of their little losing skid. The Aggies did manage to beat Montana as a #2 seed in the NIT, but lost to Louisiana Tech in the second round. The Aggies also lose two starters in Kourtney Roberson and Jordan Green. Green’s offensive numbers are replaceable, but the defensive intensity may not be. Roberson was also tough in the frontcourt. The Aggies have enough talent to get into the Big Dance this year but scheduling their first four games against garbage was a mistake. Teams’ often pay the price for scheduling games against weak competition in its first game against real competition and we’re suggesting that the Aggies will pay that price here.
The Longhorns are just 1-1. They lost their opener 77-71 to a Washington team that is potent in the backcourt. What is so interesting about that loss to the Huskies is that the Longhorns were an 11-point favorite. We pay more attention to the line that when we do in the result because any team can have an off day. The ‘Horns now go from an 11-point choice to a 4-point dog, a swing of 15 points. It gets even more interesting. The Longhorns second game was against Texas A&M Corpus Christi, the same team that the Aggies crushed by 25 points. Texas beat Corpus Christi by a mere nine points. What the results don’t tell you is that the Longhorns opener was played in China, a 14-hour plane ride. When they played Corpus Christi, they had just returned from 28 hours in the air. It would have been somewhat unreasonable to expect the Longhorns to be sharp in a game like that. Now 12 days back from their trip overseas, the Longhorns figure to be in much better form here.
Getting Coach Shaka Smart to Texas has added a much needed influx of excitement around the program. The Longhorns also return nine of the 11 players that were in the regular rotation last year and that team was pretty good. Texas certainly had some struggles in Big 12 play, but they reached the NCAA Tournament. Coach Smart may not run his “havoc” style this year at Texas, but Coach Smart will do what is best for this group. At the least, there is depth in Austin and that means Smart can rotate his players in order to keep the defensive intensity up. Despite losing Myles Turner and Jonathan Holmes, the Texas frontcourt has experience and talent. Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh are the traditional post players who can grab rebounds and block shots. Ridley is a solid interior scorer and a big reason why Texas led the nation in blocked shots last year. Point guard Isaiah Taylor will make sure the big guys get involved. Yet, Taylor can score himself too. Taylor could have gone to the NBA after his sophomore season, so getting him back is a huge deal for Texas. Taylor can play fast and he will get the chance to show that off under Coach Smart. Results influence lines. On paper, it would appear that the Aggies are crushing it while the Longhorns are struggling to get going. As a result of those aforementioned results combined with the Aggies #25 ranking, we get inflated points with a Shaka Smart coached team. Texas may even have the superior talent here. Yeah, we’ll bite. Pick: Texas +4 -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
