| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.80 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 28 | 0.00 | +18.07 |
| Season to Date | 91 | 106 | 0.00 | +15.71 |
2-unit wager
Toronto +166 over ANAHEIM
OT included. The Ducks’ 60 points is the second best mark in the lead behind the Predators 62 points. Anaheim is coming off a 5-4 OT victory over the then undermanned Jets to improve their current run to four wins in the past six games. However, we can assure you that of all the elite teams at the top of the standings, Anaheim is the one team that does not belong there. Everything says this is really just an average team that has gotten extremely lucky for an extended period of time. The Ducks rank right in the middle of the pack in time spent in the offensive end. In fact, they are almost at 50%/50% between time spent on their side of center ice and the opposition’s side. That puts them on par with teams like New Jersey, Florida, and Philadelphia among others. Anaheim’s goal difference is just +3, which is further proof of their unexplainable W/L record. That puts in the same class as the Sharks and Maple Leafs and is worse than Vancouver’s +5, Calgary’s +9 and Winnipeg’s +10. In fact, 16 teams have a better goal differential than Anaheim. To give you an idea of how mind-boggling Anaheim’s record truly is, consider that Tampa Bay’s goal differential is +24, Chicago is +39, Nashville is +36, St. Louis is +33, the Rangers are +26 and Pittsburgh is +29 yet all of those teams have fewer points than Anaheim with the exception of Nashville, who has two points less. Don’t get us wrong, we’re not suggesting the Ducks are a poor club. We are suggesting that they are not nearly as good as their record suggests and therefore do not deserve to be favored in the same price range as the elite. Well, they are priced like an elite team here and that makes them an overvalued club worth fading. The only area in which the Ducks excel at is luck.
What Ron Wilson and Randy Carlyle could not get the Maple Leafs to do in five years combined, Peter Horachek has accomplished it in two days of practice. How can that be? What does that say about Wilson and Carlyle? It says that both of those coaches could not communicate a simple message or that the players hated playing for both of them. Part of a coach’s job is to get the best out of players but it would appear like both Carlyle and Wilson got the worst out of their players and it wasn’t just in Toronto either. Wilson had a powerhouse team in San Jose and did nothing with it and Carlyle was run out of Anaheim after nearly ruining that team. In any case, since Horacek has taken over, Toronto is 1-2 but it might be the best three-game stretch of games the Leafs have played since nearly knocking off the Bruins in the playoffs a couple of years ago. On Tuesday in Los Angeles the Maple Leafs took it to the Kings, especially in the second and third periods but ran into a super-hot Martin Jones and lost 1-0. They held the Kings to 20 shots in net after holding the Jackets to 20 shots on net the previous game. It’s only three games but Toronto has held all three opponents to 26 shots or less and the last two to 20 shots. You might have to go back to the days of Turk Broda and Johnny Bower to the last time the Maple Leafs held three opponents in succession to that few shots on goal. In what is a complete metamorphosis to the good, the Maple Leafs can actually take pride in the way they’ve played the past three games and we see no reason why it won’t continue. It’s just three games but if the Leafs stay the course they are going to win a lot of games down the stretch because they have goal scorers and outstanding goaltending. The market recognizes wins and losses but it has not recognized Toronto’s change in style yet or just how average the Ducks are. Both combine to produce this sweet overlay.
