| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 11 | 5 | 0.00 | +12.64 |
| Season to Date | 21 | 10 | 0.00 | +22.10 |
#724 MIAMI (OH) +4 over Central Michigan
We have a really hard time refusing points from a road favorite whose best win on the road this year came against Bowling Green. Actually, that was CMU’s only road win but there are plenty of road losses. The Chips have already lost on the road to Grand Canyon, BYU, William & Mary, Buffalo and Northern Illinois. This is also their fourth game and third on the road in 10 days. What we absolutely love is that the Chips are coming off a 72-49 home win over Ohio and when a weak outfit blows out a team, they usually rebound with a stinker. These Chippewas know how to play one style and one style only. It’s bombs away for this intruder, as they have never seen a three they didn’t like. What’s so interesting about that is the Redhawks strength is their ability to defend the three.
We often employ a buy-low/sell-high strategy and that applies to this game. Again, the Chips are coming off a blowout win, while Miami has dropped nine in a row. However, the Redhawks have played a more difficult schedule than the Chips that include a one-point loss at Dayton and a 9-point loss at Xavier. Miami plays better defense than the Chips (it’s not even close) and they do a nice job of defending the perimeter with a 32.9% opposing make rate from downtown. That means shooters of the low-percentage shot are favored on the road coming off a lopsided home win, which is an angle will try to exploit every time. Miami outright is tempting but we’ll play it safer and take the points. Pick: Miami +4 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
