| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +6.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 23 | 0.00 | +26.99 |
| Season to Date | 55 | 39 | 0.00 | +32.11 |
Colorado +6½ -106 over CALIFORNIA
4:30 PM EST. Such a great spot to take the Buffs because they’re so undervalued based on their misleading record. We’ve said it before and will say it again that results influence the market and the market influences the price. As a result of that hypothesis, we get Colorado plus inflated points in a game we’re calling them to win outright. Let us set it up for you. Cal is 7-3 in Pac-12 play while Colorado is 3-7. Overall, the Golden Bears are 16-6 while the Buffs are just 13-10. There are other things that influence people into making a bad bet and one of those things are past results or trends. In that regard, the Buffs have lost 10 of 11 games all-time at Cal, including a 79-65 loss last year. To that we say, “who gives a flying f**k”? You see, thousands upon thousands of games are played every year and foolish trends will develop over time with some sticking out more than others. To base one’s decision on a meaningless stat or trend is complete foolishness and if Cal wins and covers here, it’s because they were the better team on this day and not because they beat Colorado eight years ago.
While we respect what the Golden Bears have accomplished this year and the style in which they play, they might be the second best team here. Cal’s out-of-conference strength of schedule (SOS) ranked 241st in the country. The Golden Bears adjusted tempo or possessions per 40 minutes ranks 302nd in the country, meaning they play at a snail’s pace, unlike Cal teams’ of the past. When a team plays at that pace, indeed it can be effective but it also means that spotting points with said team is risky business because scoring is at a premium and playing catchup, should it come to that, takes them out of their comfort zone.
Check those road struggles off the list for a Colorado team that suddenly has found a spark. Combining a hot-shooting effort and a balanced scoring punch with a dominant effort on the glass, the Buffs were able to overcome a rash of turnovers to hold off Stanford for an 81-74 win Thursday night. That broke a 10-game road losing streak for the Buffs against Pac-12 opponents dating back to last year. Despite the 0-7 start in Pac-12 play, which has been answered by a modest three-game win streak, CU actually has performed with admirable consistency on offense. Even though the Buffs' league-leading free throw and 3-point percentages are down from a year ago, CU's overall field goal percentage and scoring average through 10 games are significantly higher than their league marks a year ago. Colorado’s offense is so dangerous. The Buffs are also one of the best rebounding teams in the conference, which helps significantly when taking points because second chance points come into play.
Buffs’ coach, Tad Boyle does a good job of building a competitive squad every year. Since his arrival, the Buffaloes have gone to the post-season six out of seven years after just one trip in the previous 47. This year, the Buffs have experience and now they have some momentum. After starting conference play 0-7, the Buffaloes pulled off the most inexplicable upset of the season by upending the high-flying Oregon Ducks. Moving beyond the respective records, the Buffaloes might be gelling at the the turn as they’ve stampeded their way to a three game win streak while the Golden Bears are coming off a thrilling and emotionally draining double OT victory over Utah on Thursday. The timing is just right to fade the Bears and get behind the Buffs.
Risking 2.12 units to win 2
Good luck and enjoy the SB.
