| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 7 | 4 | 0.00 | +5.96 |
| Season to Date | 17 | 8 | 0.00 | +17.54 |
TCU +4 over Texas Tech
7:00 PM EST. The Red Raiders were 11-1 after their first 12 games and it raised some eyebrows. Coach Tubby Smith comes from the Rick Pitino school of “how to build up your résumé and bring attention to yourself during the non-conference portion of your schedule”. Texas Tech played a non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) that ranked 262nd in the country. TTU opened up their non-conference schedule with a four-point win over High Point and closed with a victory over Richmond. In between those bookend victories were a bunch of wins over a bunch of marshmallows. Now Tech is 11-5 after losing to every good team they faced. The market, however is excusing Tech’s conference record of 1-4 because they lost to three ranked teams (Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor). We’re not as forgiving. Ranked teams get upset all the time. Just this past week, four or five of the top-10 teams were upset by unranked teams. The Red Raiders had the luxury of playing two of those three ranked teams in Lubbock and lost them both. They are 0-2 on the road. When they lost to K-State, it was on the road and the Red Raiders lost by 13. This is a young Tech team that has been bad for so long. They are going to be bad again this year in conference play. The market’s perception of this team is off because of that 11-1 start and we’re absolutely not ready to concede that the Red Raiders deserve being road chalk, especially with a home game on deck against #11 West Virginia
TCU is just 9-8. The Horned Frogs do not have a notable win yet either but they’re on the verge of getting one. TCU lost to then #22 SMU by just five points. They hung 87 on West Virginia and lost by eight but the Frogs took a lead into halftime and the game was tied with about five minutes left. TCU has a conference win over Texas, which is the same lone team that Texas Tech has defeated during conference play. The Horned Frogs may not have the top level talent to compete with the top Big 12 teams on a regular basis, but this is a squad that should be able to win a few more Big 12 games than they did last year and take that next step forward. TCU was a much better team last year than most realized and they’re a better team this year. What we like about the Frogs is their frontcourt strength and depth. This is a team that went into #1 Kansas without Malique Trent (suspended and questionable for tonight) and lost by just seven. Trent is one of the top junior college transfers in the country and is leading the Horned Frogs in minutes played and points per game. Whether Trent goes tonight or not is of no concern to us whatsoever. Obviously we prefer that he plays but we’re pretty sure the oddsmakers know exactly what his status is. In the end, Tech has five covers in their last 19 road games and they were a fairly large dog in almost all of them. Now they're favored. Tech opened as a 2½-point favorite. We are going to assume that Trent is out because the line has been bet up to -4. We get inflated points to begin with and now we also get inflated points because of Trent’s status. Again, this intruder does not deserve to be road chalk against any Big-12 team and we’ll play it accordingly. Pick: TCU +4 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
