1/8

TheGuarantee · Jan 8, 2009

YTD: 3-4 +.7 units

UC-Davis -4 -120 2 units
Actually played it at -4 -105 but didn't get a chance to post, don't often buy the hook but 4 is a decent number to do it on in my eyes. I'm not exactly a Big West expert but seeing Rail and Homedawg certainly didn't hurt. Been following this Davis team a bit this year however and I absolutely love this spot/price. Riverside the better looking record but they are less tested, struggle to score and I simply don't see them going on the road and getting a win here. Davis coming off a close loss at Northridge, while Riverside getting credit for a pair of home wins vs bad Poly team and just gettting by UCSB. Harden gets to th eline and makes his free throws - entire team makes their free throws actually (best % in the nation to date I believe) and against a foul happy Riverside team I see that as the key to the game. I'm looking for Davis to limit their turnovers at home, continue to bound it well on the defensive end and get to the stripe/continue to make them. If they do all that they should coast to a home win here as they are the much more talented offensive team. Riversides only road wins have come at the hands of absolutely terrible Colgate and Loyola Marymount - by ten and seven points - two games where they absolutely dominated the glass yet still had the other teams hanging around. Not a good matchup for Riverside and one of my favorite bets of the season so far.

Good luck.

Twisted · Jan 8, 2009

think you just talked me off Riverside :missingte

any thoughts on the Anteaters
GL tonight :toast:

homedawg · Jan 8, 2009

on davis as well. GL

TheGuarantee · Jan 8, 2009

^Looks like the right side to me, Big West not my best conference by any means though, just been following this Davis team for some reason and really like this spot. Rail was on Irvine +10 I saw, he knows the conference in and out. Can't say I capped that game more than a surface glance though.

Glad to see us on the same side here Homedawg, keep killing it.

TheGuarantee · Jan 8, 2009

Adding:

Minnesota +2.5 1 unit
Waited and held out for 3 but doesn't look like it will get there, usually would take the moneyline here but it could be quite close and the points could prove handy - plus this early I'm trying to be a little conservative and build a little roll. Minnesota is admittedly untested on the road with Iowa being a tough place to play. Coming into this season I saw Minnesota as being underrated though and the Colo St game should have helped get the road jitters out. I watched Iowa struggle to cross half-court against West Va and against a pressure defense capable of creating turnovers such as Minnesota I think we may see them struggle again tonight, even at home. While both teams come into the game with inflated records I actually think it is Iowa that we will see crumble (ala Clemson every year) as they get into the heart of their schedule. It is a team that has benefited from a very soft schedule and I feel one which will struggle playing any team of merit this season. Minnesota is a team that I expect will compete in the Big Ten this year and if that's the case you have to beat this Iowa team. Taking the points, expecting it outright.

Good luck.