1.6.05 (65-45-3)

ApolloKid · Jan 6, 2005

2 unit plays: 8-6
1 unit plays: 57-39-3

9-1 last night with two 2-unit winners. Not much on the board tonight in the conferences I follow closely, but I see a few games I am leaning toward.

One pick early:

745 Portland University +10 at St. Mary's 1 unit
-- Both teams off to good starts but a couple of angles put me on the Pilots here. Portland has three close losses and only suffered one blowout vs. Oregon, one of the better teams out west. This is the conference opener for both schools, so I expect both to be ready for the game. That said, St. Mary's has Gonzaga on tap Saturday and they are definitely looking forward to that game. Their gym is already sold out and they are encouraging fans to wear red and show up early to get red towel to wave. St. Mary's has beat Portland 5 straight times, and I think that has to give Portland a little motivational edge considering this is their best team in a long time. I like Portland to keep it inside 10 points.

I should have at least one more. GL.

LowTide · Jan 6, 2005

Apollo,

Good luck tonight.I like Portland and am interested to see if you have anything else.

As for my thoughts about Hawaii-I don't think they have strong enough guard play to challenge UTEP or Rice and the lack of depth that you mentioned will do them in as the season continues.They have the look of a typical Rainbow football team-they will be tough at home,but will not produce on the road.

gopherbob · Jan 6, 2005

i'm with you on portland tonight for the reasons that you mentioned, sandwich game between the byu blowout
and the much anticipated game with zags. 10 seems too much for 2 pretty evenly matched teams, just hope the gaels are looking ahead to saturday.

jwunderdog · Jan 6, 2005

Just a quick note, St Mary's hasn't just beat Portland they have beaten them by double digits for several years now at home. St Mary's leading scorer from last year finally has his legs under him after missing the first sem. due to grades. This is a pretty good St Mary's team.

ApolloKid · Jan 6, 2005

Points well taken JW. I respect this St. Mary's team. But this is a far better Portland team than any of those who lost those games. They have the right attitude as well. Nice story in Portland paper about them that said they aren't really putting too much weight on their great start.

Tide, my other leans right now are Long Beach St. vs. Pacific and Miami at G-Tech. I was hoping to get a little bounce back in the line toward the opener, but it doesn't look like it is coming.

I looked at E. Washington and promptly threw it in the trash, especially after the line move. The team is too inconsistent for me right now. They were supposed to be decent, but they aren't producing. I looked at Arizona St., but don't trust them right now and don't think we gain any advantage with the small line.

And I think that Gonzaga is the right side tonight, but I don't like to lay those numbers on the road, especially in conference.

ApolloKid · Jan 6, 2005

adding

754 Long Beach St. +8 vs. Pacific 1 unit
-- Let me make my case for Long Beach. They play tight games at home. They almost up-ended Pepperdine and Portland. They rebound. According to their game notes, they've outrebounded 8 of their 11 opponents this season. They played well in Hawaii. They kept games close with G-Town and the Rainbows, and gutted out an ugly game against Indiana St. Pacific, obviously, is the darling of the Big West (and rightfully so). But the oddsmakers are prone to attach extra points on Pacific games because they know that we all know this. The problem is that Long Beach is just dreadful shooting the ball, and they are usually losing so they tend to foul late in the game and put the other team on the free throw line. That is also why the probably outrebound everybody. But if Long Beach can make this game ugly, I think they gut out a cover here.

I'll probably play Miami as well but am going to wait to see if the line moves up, though I doubt it will.

GL.

ApolloKid · Jan 6, 2005

adding

717 Miami +16.5 vs. Georgia Tech 1 unit
-- The line is starting to move around so grab the 16.5s out there now. Not sure what to make of Tech without Elder and we'll find out soon enough, but they didn't have the same rhythm on offense once he got hurt vs. KU. The flip side here is that G-Tech could have other players step up and play above their capabilities tonight, as does happen a lot in pro sports. And it's not like G-Tech doesn't have talent. But I still think this is too many points to give Miami, who has played well of late against some lesser teams.

One more game I may end up playing is Irvine against Northridge. Still looking at it, though I don't like that fact that it moved off three before I saw it.

GL.

ApolloKid · Jan 7, 2005

1-1-1 on the night, though it could have been worse if Long Beach didn't make the mother of all comebacks. God, if they only showed up in the first half! St. Mary's played well and nice call JW on that one. I'm still a believer in Portland but obviously they are still outclassed against St. Mary's and probably the Zags, at least on the road.

As for Friday, I am slightly leaning toward San Francisco because Worthy is still out for Loyola, but undecided if I'll play it. I'll start a new thread if I do. Tomorrow is the big day.

GL everyone.