1/4 Season Completed, Observations and Reports...

[Boxslayer]

About 20% of the college season is done, in terms of teams playing out their schedule, and I wanted to share some things I have learned and observed and wanted to see if anyone else had observations so far:

1. USC is a team on a mission

These past few years we hear and see 5* recruits, NFL-this and NFL-that, USC re-loading, etc and then they proceed to lose to Stanford or someone and miss the title game. I don't think this is the year for that. I think USC still has question marks in their passing game, but this defense is outstanding and Rey Mauluga is a man-child. A Troy Palomula reincarnated as a MLB. That INT he made going full speed streaking across the field and perfectly timing the INT was an NFL play. He showed speed, closing speed, instincts, athleticism, etc.

You win national titles with defense, unless your offense is legendary. USCs offense isnt legendary, but their defense is probably the best in the country. Their offense is good enough to get the job done this year. They have loads of talent, their quotes in the mida seem different this year - no excuses, a very focused team. They will go as far as Mark Sanchez allows them to.

With the Pac-10 being down this year, Notre Dame being down, and the two non-conference foes out of the way, USC is in the driver's seat for the title game.

2. Pac-10 Down this year

We have all seen the scores across the country. Pac-10 has been losing to the Mountain West, the ACC, getting into dog fights with middle of the pack Big Ten teams, etc. We haven't seen any other teams besides USC from the Pac-10 come out and really look impressive the way a Missouri did vs. Illinois, or the way Alabama did vs. Clemson. ASU has a good test up ahead vs. Georgia, but it seems we have gotten a fair idea that the Pac-10 doesnt seem to have another dominant horse - ASU pending.

3. Change in elite in the Big Ten

The Big Ten is not a very good conference but they are not as bad as I am reading where people are saying the Mountain West and everyone else is better. It is just a change in the elite. OSU their dominant pride and joy just got completely embarassed two weeks in a row. Michigan lost to Notre Dame and Utah. And people are so used to the Big Ten being those two teams, they havent seen the transition occuring the past few years. Wisconsin has been taking care of business, Penn State has been taking care of business and Iowa has been taking care of business. Although Iowa's schedule hasnt been exactly difficult, they still have only given up 8 points. Wisky with a big win out west vs. a ranked opponent. Wisky and Penn State have a chance to take over the conference and maybe earn a BCS Bowl berth, with Iowa, Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State creating a strong upper/middle tier.

4. Ohio State is in deep trouble

It is now apparent that their near-loss to Ohio was no look ahead. USC was a huge game and they came out and laid an embarassingly huge egg. This is now 3 major out of conference games and 0-3. Tressel is no longer considered a great coach by any stretch of the imagination. Looking back, the only person he has outcoached in big games is Mack Brown and Larry Coker - Brown regarded as a recruiting guru with little gameday ability and Larry Coker is out of a job. Tressel's post-game interview looked lifeless, he looks like a guy who is out of answers. He looks like he is running out of times to say "our guys fought hard against a real good football team and will learn from this." There are now major problems at OSU. This is a team completely out of confidence, whispers now questioning their coach, and the only way to get it back is to get a new one, get some new blood, and use Tressel as the goat and say the only reason they lost big games was because of Tressel and instill some new confidence in the program.

5. National Title Prediction: USC vs. SEC = USC Blowout

Unless somebody from the Big 12 goes undefeated, I think we will again see the elite SEC team in the title game - IMO it will be Florida - and I think we see said SEC school get embarassed by USC unless I see something dramatic change.

The closest that the SEC has to a big-time team this season is Florida and I think they are too undersized to go toe-to-toe with USC this season.

There is plenty of season to go, and there will be games this year where USC will look pedestrian, but I think if they can just keep winning and make it to the title game they will be in good shape to get that national title game magic and put a hurtin on someone.

 

[Conan]

A lot of good reasoning there Box.

I really don't think ASU will emerge as the next in line in the Pac. Remotely possible with DE coaching there, but don't forget that they lost 5 big producers to the NFL last Winter.

Cal may yet emerge though their lines are needing an injection of smarts or strength, whichever it is. Their skill players are only 1/2 way back. Best and Vereen seem to be moving into the top spots but I still can't name many of their WR's.

Oregon keeps going through QB's at an alarming rate. They could be very good provided that they can find some continuity at QB. Their rushing game is one of the top rushing attacks in CFB. I don't know if they still lead the nation in rushing but it wouldn't surprise me if it was true.

Not much to add about USC but I think you missed how well Sanchez has been leading their offense. Guardedly I would say that it could be as good or near as good as their defense. Other than that I completely agree with you. It's USC and the 119 dwarfs.

 

[MattMillen+]

Great stuff Box. Can't say I disagree with any of that.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

3. Change in elite in the Big Ten

The Big Ten is not a very good conference but they are not as bad as I am reading where people are saying the Mountain West and everyone else is better. It is just a change in the elite. OSU their dominant pride and joy just got completely embarassed two weeks in a row. Michigan lost to Notre Dame and Utah. And people are so used to the Big Ten being those two teams, they havent seen the transition occuring the past few years. Wisconsin has been taking care of business, Penn State has been taking care of business and Iowa has been taking care of business. Although Iowa's schedule hasnt been exactly difficult, they still have only given up 8 points. Wisky with a big win out west vs. a ranked opponent. Wisky and Penn State have a chance to take over the conference and maybe earn a BCS Bowl berth, with Iowa, Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State creating a strong upper/middle tier.

Not a single mention for my boys from Purdue. Shame on you Box haha. I guess they're my little secret (aka ATM machine).

Great write up as usual Box. You have a unique approach by applying simplicity and logic on your views.

GL this weekend as I have feeling you'll bounce back

 

[VoiceofReason101]

It's USC and the 119 dwarfs.

OU is no dwarf :drink:

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Not a single mention for my boys from Purdue. Shame on you Box haha. I guess they're my little secret (aka ATM machine).

Great write up as usual Box. You have a unique approach by applying simplicity and logic on your views.

GL this weekend as I have feeling you'll bounce back

Purdue is not a top team in that conference. Year in & year out they put up gawdy #'s but once the competition stiffens, they come back down to reality.

 

[seriousaddiction]

I think Penn State runs away with the Big 10 this year...

USC is the best team in the country by far....The next best teams (Florida, LSU, Oklahoma) are 7 point dogs on any neutral field


I think the best game to watch would be USC/Florida

THink the game we are gonna be watching is gonna be USC/OKL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Purdue is not a top team in that conference. Year in & year out they put up gawdy #'s but once the competition stiffens, they come back down to reality.

Talent wise they are 3/4 in the conference. Coaching staff is a hindrance though (see Oregon game)

 

[5-0SAT]

Correction on National Championship Game


USC v. Big 12 Championship Game Winner

SEC going to beat each other up like they always do. And when I see scores like 3 to 2 and Georgia barely holding on, I fear the SEC is going back to its old ways of a couple years ago. If OU stays #2 all year and its OU v. Mizzou in the big 12 championship game, that's a guaranteed ticket to the national championship game.

 

[GoSooners]

Correction on National Championship Game


USC v. Big 12 Championship Game Winner

SEC going to beat each other up like they always do. And when I see scores like 3 to 2 and Georgia barely holding on, I fear the SEC is going back to its old ways of a couple years ago. If OU stays #2 all year and its OU v. Mizzou in the big 12 championship game, that's a guaranteed ticket to the national championship game.

Every year I see these same early season prognostications, and every year most all of them turn out to be wrong. With the exception of maybe USC I'm not really sold on any team. It's way too early in the season to speculate. Nobody has played anybody yet. And until these teams get into conference play we really don't know any of their weaknesses. The Big 12 is top heavy with great QB's and offenses. But we really don't have any idea how much these teams are going to beat up on each others defenses, which I think are still questionable. The SEC I don't have a clue about. From what I've seen so far I don't see anybody who is head and shoulders above anybody else. But that could change. Injuries and bad/good breaks will determin the fate of any team from that conference making it to the NC game. Back to USC, I think their chances went way up after defeating OSU. But just a reminder that the teams who win the BCS title game are almost ALWAYS the team from the best conference between the two opponents. Just go back in the books and you'll see that most every team who won the BCS had a conference bowl record that was at least as equal or better than their opponent. So the PAC-10 has some work to do to get back up to strength before thay appear in the postseason bowl games..

 

[billhill999]

UCONN is the most underrated team in the nation, their defense is a beast, and will win a mid sized bowl game.

 

[whormoan]

Hilarious to me how everyone thinks USC defense is greatest thing since sliced bread. They beat a Va team that could barely score against Richmond and got annhilated by UConn and they played an OSU team missing their only weapon. OSU actually moved the ball OK with very pedestrian plays for a quarter and it would've been (and should've been) a 14-10 game late in the 2nd quarter. USC defense is vulnerable to the pass and running QB's but they won't play anyone who can expose them. And then they will be fresh and motivated when the title game comes around and kill the fodder thrown at them that would've had to bust their ass bloddy to get there.

Sanchez a HUGE upgrade over Booty though.

Saying the Pac-1 is "down" is an understatement. They are a JOKE

 

[FairWarning]

Michigan is staring at a 7th place finish in the Big 10 and may not make it to .500. Mich St is staying under the radar. They have been in this spot before and choked, we'll see. Just not sold on Iowa either. Minny is horrible, not sure if they will win more than one.

Nice writeups Box.

 

[5-0SAT]

Hilarious to me how everyone thinks USC defense is greatest thing since sliced bread. They beat a Va team that could barely score against Richmond and got annhilated by UConn and they played an OSU team missing their only weapon. OSU actually moved the ball OK with very pedestrian plays for a quarter and it would've been (and should've been) a 14-10 game late in the 2nd quarter. USC defense is vulnerable to the pass and running QB's but they won't play anyone who can expose them. And then they will be fresh and motivated when the title game comes around and kill the fodder thrown at them that would've had to bust their ass bloddy to get there.

Sanchez a HUGE upgrade over Booty though.

Saying the Pac-1 is "down" is an understatement. They are a JOKE

Couldn't agree more with everything you articulated.

 

[dave11486]

Hilarious to me how everyone thinks USC defense is greatest thing since sliced bread. They beat a Va team that could barely score against Richmond and got annhilated by UConn and they played an OSU team missing their only weapon. OSU actually moved the ball OK with very pedestrian plays for a quarter and it would've been (and should've been) a 14-10 game late in the 2nd quarter. USC defense is vulnerable to the pass and running QB's but they won't play anyone who can expose them. And then they will be fresh and motivated when the title game comes around and kill the fodder thrown at them that would've had to bust their ass bloddy to get there.

Sanchez a HUGE upgrade over Booty though.

Saying the Pac-1 is "down" is an understatement. They are a JOKE

Ohio State got what was coming to them on Saturday. I really don't understand the obsession with USC right now. Ohio State might as well have been just another Big East team. I don't think I have seen a more predictable and stubborn gameplan. USC capitalized, but really did nothing wrong in that game. Doubt that will last. Everyone drinking the USC Kool-Aid.

 

[MajorGCG]

Florida isnt ready for SoCal right now, but they might be by season's end. I agree that that may be the most interesting game. I would say OU, but Stoops has laid so many eggs in the postseason that Cal-Maine Foods keeps trying to hire him away from OU.

 

[whormoan]

Ohio State got what was coming to them on Saturday. I really don't understand the obsession with USC right now. Ohio State might as well have been just another Big East team. I don't think I have seen a more predictable and stubborn gameplan. USC capitalized, but really did nothing wrong in that game. Doubt that will last. Everyone drinking the USC Kool-Aid.

It will last because USC doesn't play a team worth a shit the rest of the yr. And ESPN and the media will feed us "greatest this, greatest that". Just like the Leinart-led team, we'll see how many of these guys will even be recognizable in the pros.

 

[Kegler]

I don't understand how you can say ASU pending after they lost at home to UNLV. That makes ASU shitty like the rest of the PAC-1.

 

[Geaux-tigers]

I echo some of the other comments in here, while Box's first point may be accurate, that they're this good, it's impossible to tell so far and we may never be able to tell with the rest of their schedule.

But let's summarize what we've seen from them....they drummed an awful UVA team exactly the same as did UConn, who's not in a discussion for the nation's best team. And they convincingly beat at home the exact same team that has been convincingly been beaten each time in the last 2 years that it has stepped out of its comfortable conference to play good teams.

At the end of the day, much like the UVA drubbing, I think people should be careful to not allow the media or your own impressions to tell you that their performance against OSU was more impressive than it actually was. Consider OSU's performance the week before, and against good teams in the past before you do and ask yourself if this was really the fifth best team in the country going in (it wasn't), if the results were that shocking (they weren't, the spread was 12) and don't forget that this overrated team was on the road crosscountry without its best player to boot.

Now I was on OSU myself I'm ashamed to say but instead of coming to the conclusion that USC is the best team in the history of the world, as I thought about where I made a mistake it's clear that I was way too quick to disregard the most obvious evidence about the right side here--OSU's performance against elite teams. I thought it was too many points but it was actually just the oddsmakers finally adjusting to something that many of us needed one more game to figure out. We're told how good this OSU team is as they annually rip through the Big 10, and they had the #5 next to their name with all those returning starters, and anytime you catch a #5 getting double digits, it's usually a value. However, teams that have an offense that can put them in a hole and can stop the run on defense, as most elite teams can like a USC or a top SEC team, are a TERRIBLE matchup for them as they've now showed for the 3rd straight time.

IMO this game was obviously a lot more about OSU than USC--the verdict is not that USC is that much better than we thought going in, it's that OSU is the same and the other 2 games like this were not aberrations.

So no question USC does have the best body of work and deserving of #1 and given its schedule this season, they are not likely to give it up. I think they are likely the best, most well-rounded team. But so far they were favored by about 2 TDs in two games which they covered--this is not the stuff of legend and I think as a handicapper bucking this invincibility image for this team as the season goes on will make a lot more sense than assuming that they are the best team in college football and will destroy everyone they play.

 

[bootman_66]

I think Penn State runs away with the Big 10 this year...

USC is the best team in the country by far....The next best teams (Florida, LSU, Oklahoma) are 7 point dogs on any neutral field


I think the best game to watch would be USC/Florida

THink the game we are gonna be watching is gonna be USC/OKL

Ill take oklahoma plus 7 at the orange bowl......