1.19.05 (81-62-4 ytd)

ApolloKid · Jan 19, 2005

2 unit: 15-11
1 unit: 66-51-4

1-0 last night with the FSU win. Probably should have had more money on it, but after a few tough days, I'll take the win and be happy.

Big card tonight. Here is an early pick with more to follow:

598 Miami +8 vs. Duke 3 units
-- Low Tide's right. I like this game alot. So much so that I am putting 3 units on it, one of the few times you'll see me do this during a year. Miami has played well against the ACC despite being picked to be one of the bottom-feeders. They still may end up there, but we have a similar situation to last night with FSU-Wake. Duke's not necessarily in the same type of letdown spot, but Miami has a good chance to win this thing outright. If they don't, they should make it competitive.

Coast2Coast · Jan 19, 2005

I posted this play on the board on Monday night and bought it then when Pinnacle posted it at +8. A bit surprised it's still at 8, but such is the power of the Dukies' following. Miami's guards Diaz and Hite are first rate, and that's what you need to match up with Duke's backcourt. Canes also pretty decent in the front court. I've been playing the Canes for a few weeks now, and they let me down as chalk on Saturday vs. FSU, but they've been money as dogs. This is Duke's first true road game outside tobacco road. That might be a bit of a factor if the fans in South Florida get off the beach and come to the game more than they have been. This is indeed a "surprise" team that I don't believe the public (and thus the linesmakers) have yet fairly valued. I'm going to put a small piece on the moneyline as well.

ApolloKid · Jan 19, 2005

adding

Coast, I agree 100 percent. Win or lose, Miami is the right side, IMO. Duke's got FSU next and I think we'll have a good spot there as well.

Two more:
Rutgers PK vs. Providence 1 unit
-- Win or lose, this game will come down to the wire. Aren't all of Rutgers' home games like that. Seriously, I think we are getting a good spot here with Rutgers. Both teams 0-3. Providence has been a disappoint somewhat this year. The RAC is a tough place to play. I thought when the line hit +1 today it would continue to go back up, but instead it settled at PK. Still good value, IMO.

600 Clemson +11.5 vs. UNC 1 unit
-- UNC will probably be angry after losing to Wake Forest, but 11.5-point road chalk against a conference rival? Clemson has stumbled a bit of late, but should make this game competitive.

I have a lot of opinions tonight and may post another play closer to 7:30 tip. Among some of the games I liked but haven't decided or am not playing: Kansas (all that chalk is too tough to lay), Indiana, BC, Xavier, Tenn. and WV (I think we find out a lot about this team tonight).

GL.

ChooseORLose · Jan 19, 2005

good luck tonight. on Clemson with you.

ApolloKid · Jan 19, 2005

Same to you, Choose. It's a lot of points. Someone's got to bet the ugly sides of these games!

Coast2Coast · Jan 20, 2005

Duke shoots 61% from the field and 48% from trey...while Miami shoots 45/38...and Duke covers by one point. Duke bettors cashed but still think Miami was the right side. Stuff like this happens with college hoops...we cap the games and the kids then play at, above or below form. Some times they're hot and sometimes they're not....and the Duke kids were hot shooting the rock tonight. Next.....

ApolloKid · Jan 20, 2005

My attitude is the same as yours. It was the right side. Miami just got out of sync midway through the first half and that's when Duke went on that run. Bad night for me though, 1-2, -3 units and vig.

Probably no plays for me until Saturday. I need a little break as I dropped more than 8 units since Saturday. A little, inevitable, losing streak. GL everyone.