Cajun-Sports Executive- Tuesday
CFB: pass
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Connecticut vs. West Virginia (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3/101 West Virginia Play Title: Cajuns CBB Big East Power Play 40-21 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Morgantown will be the setting for tonight’s Big East clash between the host West Virginia Mountaineers and the visiting Connecticut Huskies. This will be their first meeting since last March in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament where the Mountaineers came away with a 78 to 72 win.
West Virginia is 11-2 SU and 5-5 ATS this season including 6-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home this year. They are averaging 79.7 points per game against teams that normally surrender 66.6 points per game. Their defense has been solid both on the road and at home, they are only allowing 47.7 points per game on 35.7% shooting to teams that average scoring 70.4 points per game.
West Virginia suffered a loss back on December 9th to Davidson 65 to 68 as a 2.5 point favorite and since that time they have been outstanding winning 5 in a row and posting a 3-1 ATS record. The last two wins came on the road to Ohio State and they blew them out 76 to 48 and then traveled to Seton Hall and put a beat-down on them 92 to 66.
Over those five games the Mountaineers averaged 81.4 points per game and only allowed 55.4 points per game on 38% shooting. The Mounties have defended the trey also allowing a mere 21.3% from behind the arc.
Connecticut is 12-1 SU and 5-4 ATS overall including 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway this season. The Huskies average 79.4 points per game on 48.4% from the field and they allow 69.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting to teams that normally score only 68.3 points per game. A small negative point differential for the Huskies “D” on the road this season.
The Huskies suffered their first loss back on December 29th to the Georgetown Hoyas as a 6.5 point home favorite losing 63 to 74. They were able to bounce back in their next game as they hosted Rutgers and blew them out as a 21 point home favorite 80 to 49.
The Huskies big win over Rutgers triggers a negative situation; we know that when they are on the road after defeating a conference opponent in their last game by 10 or more points they struggle against the spread posting a record of 21-37 ATS. If that big win came at home the Huskies are 3-14 ATS on the road in their next game. We also note that after Connecticut has a solid defensive outing allowing 60 points or less in their last game they are only 2-13 ATS on the road in their next game. Finally the Huskies are 1-10 ATS when playing on the road after two consecutive home games.
On the injury front we see that Huskies center Hasheem Thabeet is listed as probable for tonight’s game. That could be a huge loss for the Huskies if he cannot go, he is tied with guard Jerome Dyson and forward Jeff Adrien with 14 points per game to lead the team. He also leads the team with 10.5 rebounds per game and is a huge presence in the paint on the defensive end of the floor. For WVU only guard Joe Mazzulla is out of the lineup for this game.
Data base research has uncovered several key situations that favor West Virginia in this contest. WVU is 40-21 ATS if they won their last game SU and are now playing at home. If they are installed as a favorite their record is 31-16 ATS and if it is a conference opponent that record improves to 7-1 ATS. We want to Play ON WVU when they are coming off a SU/ATS win in their last game and now face a conference foe and are installed as a favorite, 13-4 ATS and if the line range is pk to 3 they are a perfect 5-0 ATS. WVU is 18-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 3 seasons.
The Mountaineers qualify in one of our statistical indicators that has a record of 73-37-3 ATS. This is the same indicator that gave us Michigan State over Northwestern on Saturday as they won 77 to 66 as a 4.5 point favorite.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will make the Mountaineers our 3* CBB Play of the Day for Tuesday.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) West Virginia 80 Connecticut 71
_________________
CFB: pass
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Connecticut vs. West Virginia (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3/101 West Virginia Play Title: Cajuns CBB Big East Power Play 40-21 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Morgantown will be the setting for tonight’s Big East clash between the host West Virginia Mountaineers and the visiting Connecticut Huskies. This will be their first meeting since last March in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament where the Mountaineers came away with a 78 to 72 win.
West Virginia is 11-2 SU and 5-5 ATS this season including 6-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home this year. They are averaging 79.7 points per game against teams that normally surrender 66.6 points per game. Their defense has been solid both on the road and at home, they are only allowing 47.7 points per game on 35.7% shooting to teams that average scoring 70.4 points per game.
West Virginia suffered a loss back on December 9th to Davidson 65 to 68 as a 2.5 point favorite and since that time they have been outstanding winning 5 in a row and posting a 3-1 ATS record. The last two wins came on the road to Ohio State and they blew them out 76 to 48 and then traveled to Seton Hall and put a beat-down on them 92 to 66.
Over those five games the Mountaineers averaged 81.4 points per game and only allowed 55.4 points per game on 38% shooting. The Mounties have defended the trey also allowing a mere 21.3% from behind the arc.
Connecticut is 12-1 SU and 5-4 ATS overall including 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway this season. The Huskies average 79.4 points per game on 48.4% from the field and they allow 69.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting to teams that normally score only 68.3 points per game. A small negative point differential for the Huskies “D” on the road this season.
The Huskies suffered their first loss back on December 29th to the Georgetown Hoyas as a 6.5 point home favorite losing 63 to 74. They were able to bounce back in their next game as they hosted Rutgers and blew them out as a 21 point home favorite 80 to 49.
The Huskies big win over Rutgers triggers a negative situation; we know that when they are on the road after defeating a conference opponent in their last game by 10 or more points they struggle against the spread posting a record of 21-37 ATS. If that big win came at home the Huskies are 3-14 ATS on the road in their next game. We also note that after Connecticut has a solid defensive outing allowing 60 points or less in their last game they are only 2-13 ATS on the road in their next game. Finally the Huskies are 1-10 ATS when playing on the road after two consecutive home games.
On the injury front we see that Huskies center Hasheem Thabeet is listed as probable for tonight’s game. That could be a huge loss for the Huskies if he cannot go, he is tied with guard Jerome Dyson and forward Jeff Adrien with 14 points per game to lead the team. He also leads the team with 10.5 rebounds per game and is a huge presence in the paint on the defensive end of the floor. For WVU only guard Joe Mazzulla is out of the lineup for this game.
Data base research has uncovered several key situations that favor West Virginia in this contest. WVU is 40-21 ATS if they won their last game SU and are now playing at home. If they are installed as a favorite their record is 31-16 ATS and if it is a conference opponent that record improves to 7-1 ATS. We want to Play ON WVU when they are coming off a SU/ATS win in their last game and now face a conference foe and are installed as a favorite, 13-4 ATS and if the line range is pk to 3 they are a perfect 5-0 ATS. WVU is 18-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 3 seasons.
The Mountaineers qualify in one of our statistical indicators that has a record of 73-37-3 ATS. This is the same indicator that gave us Michigan State over Northwestern on Saturday as they won 77 to 66 as a 4.5 point favorite.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will make the Mountaineers our 3* CBB Play of the Day for Tuesday.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) West Virginia 80 Connecticut 71
_________________
Kbhoops
I have a big NCAAB card, and a big play in the NBA to go along with a 3*
NCAAF total Selection. Lets have a big night! GL, KB
NBA
7* Game of the Week Orlando -12 **POD**
NCAAB
5* Purdue -2 -120
5* Creighton -12.5
4* Mia Ohio +7
3* LSU +5
3* Illinois St. -2
NCAAF
3* Ball St UNDER 74 -120
I have a big NCAAB card, and a big play in the NBA to go along with a 3*
NCAAF total Selection. Lets have a big night! GL, KB
NBA
7* Game of the Week Orlando -12 **POD**
NCAAB
5* Purdue -2 -120
5* Creighton -12.5
4* Mia Ohio +7
3* LSU +5
3* Illinois St. -2
NCAAF
3* Ball St UNDER 74 -120
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left colSpan=2>Handicapper: John Ryan</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left width="85%">Florida vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:15 PM EST</TD><TD>Premium Play</TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD align=left>Pick: Point Spread: -4/-106 Florida Play Title: Florida</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center bgColor=#eaeded><TD colSpan=8>[SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Florida Gators to win the National Championship Game
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Florida Gators to win the National Championship Game
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Any Hoops from Gavazzi PPP?
Thanks
Consensus group you win now
Date: Tuesday, January 06, 2009
$29.00 Guaranteed: Everything is FUNNY when your making MONEY! We are making the GREEN as we are on a 144-79 run and the Boys are back at it with another PERFECT WINNER in the NHL! ALL FIVE of our handicappers are making this play a BEST BET! The Computer Game Simulator gives our team an 89% chance of WINNING for us! We are now 30-10 in the NHL this year so get down on our 9000* NHL LATE STEAM MONEY LINE WINNER! 1/6/2009
9000* NHL LATE STEAM MONEY LINE WINNER
4 Washington -155 7:05 EST
Thanks
Consensus group you win now
Date: Tuesday, January 06, 2009
$29.00 Guaranteed: Everything is FUNNY when your making MONEY! We are making the GREEN as we are on a 144-79 run and the Boys are back at it with another PERFECT WINNER in the NHL! ALL FIVE of our handicappers are making this play a BEST BET! The Computer Game Simulator gives our team an 89% chance of WINNING for us! We are now 30-10 in the NHL this year so get down on our 9000* NHL LATE STEAM MONEY LINE WINNER! 1/6/2009
9000* NHL LATE STEAM MONEY LINE WINNER
4 Washington -155 7:05 EST
Last edited:
Just a heads up to those playing the Dr. Coglye picks:
The record on the site is INCORRECT. He lost last night but his record AND unit total is still the same. Apparently he's only tracking 12*? He's ice cold lately anyway, but a heads up nonetheless.
The record on the site is INCORRECT. He lost last night but his record AND unit total is still the same. Apparently he's only tracking 12*? He's ice cold lately anyway, but a heads up nonetheless.
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Dr. Coglye[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]West[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MR. HOCKEY [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]+119*
[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]12* Picks are 32-11 After EDM/DAL OVER 5.5 Loss
[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MON 10* NHL WINNER[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MR. HOCKEY [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]+119*
[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]12* Picks are 32-11 After EDM/DAL OVER 5.5 Loss
[/FONT]
indiancowboy
Unit Play. #719. Take Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 over Michigan State. (Tuesday @ 7pm est).
2-1 Yesterday:
Loyola Maryland +12.5 over Niagara (W)
Texas/Ohio State Under (W)
Sacramento Kings +4: (L)
Winning 9 of 13 Days in NBA (9-4)
Winning 4 of 5 Days in NBA (4-1)
Going for 4th Winning Football week out of 5 with Selection Today.
Let's have no fear and take the Buckeyes. After all, if their football team can cover against Texas and nearly win outright, maybe this program does have hope when they play the better teams in the nation - j/k. As per this game, we have many things that are working in our favor. First of all, Ohio State comes off a tough opening conference loss to Minnesota on the road. That was a game they were competitive most of the way, led at many points and fell short late in the second half. This is not to say they will win against Michigan State on the road today. But, it is today highlight the importance of this game if Ohio State does not want to start the year 0-2 and thus they will play with a sense of urgency. Michigan State is doing just fine. They are 2-0. They defeated both Northwestern and Minnesota by double-digits. But, note, that Ohio State is better this year than they were last year - and they lost last year to this team by 7 points. Thus, this team has revenge, has a great sense of urgency as they do not want to start the year 0-2, are on the bounce-back and Michigan State might end up coming out a little flat today as they come off two big road conference wins. I do worry about a late Michigan State run here but don't count Ohio State out when it comes to being competitive on the road. Remember, this team defeated ACC Miami of Florida who is a top 25 power ranking team outright on the road. Plus, Ohio State is a 10-2 team who is a top 45 ranked team that has defeated Notre Dame and Butler. This team is good. So what they didn't beat Tubby's boys - I think they can hang by single digits against Michigan State with revenge, coming off a conference loss and Michigan State being a bit over-valued and coming out a bit flat after two huge road conference wins - besides, they were within single digits last year with a younger crew than what they have this year.
4 Unit Play. #715. Take New Orleans Hornets +8 over Los Angeles Lakers (Tuesday @ 10:35pm est). It was either this selection or the Memphis Grizzlies today but I decided to take the 8 points rather than lay the 4 points. Both Memphis and New Orleans have revenge. But, New Orleans comes off a brutal loss to Denver by 2 points on the road. That is a game frankly they let get away and should have won. This game is different from the last two contests when they face the Lakers. This time, they have Peja back and New Orleans typically plays very well against L.A. on the road as compared to at home. The last two games against the Lakers were in NO and although the scores indicate a bit of a closer contest, the Lakers absolutely buried them. But, when NO goes on the road to play the Lakers, they play very well and more importantly - cover. Check out this amazing stat. What if I told you that the Lakers have covered the last 4 contests in New Orleans. But, New Orleans has covered the last 3 contests at Los Angeles. New Orleans is fairly good with revenge as you can take a look at the Portland game as an example when this team went on the road to defeat the Blazers outright with revenge. The Hornets dislike the Lakers. They are healthy now. They are getting 8 points in a game they could win outright as they come off a 2 point loss to Denver and are even more focused due to the bounce-back and have historically done very well at L.A. when it comes to ATS covers. The road team is 6-1 ATS over the last 7 meetings and the Underdog has covered the last 9 times between these two teams. We're Hornet fans today.
(Released early last Thursday): 3 Unit Play. #266. Take Tulsa PK over Ball State. (January 6th, 8pm eastern). Ball State had their perfect season hopes shattered as they were defeated in their own conference Championship by Buffalo. Ball sports an offense ranked 11th in the nation and 17th in points scored. Ball's defense is ranked 54th overall and 20th in points allowed. Yet, all that flew out the door when this team gave up 42 points to Buffalo as their previous highest was 24 points before that. Ball did beat Navy but outside that, they have not played anyone who I feel is a bowl worthy type opponent. Now, Tulsa has the #1 offense in the nation but a defense that is ranked 85th overall and 85th in points allowed. This team lost their last 4 of 5 covers and once they gave up 70 points to Houston on the road. Of course, Vegas made it hard for this team to cover after they had covered their first 6 of 7 contests. This team lost to East Carolina at home in their last contest. You have to look at attitude and motivation. After all, the way I am beginning to cap bowl games more than ever is through which team wants to be there, who has the better defense and who has the better running game. In essence, who controls both sides of the line – offense an defensively. But, this game is a bit different. I think that a team that had nearly a perfect season simply struggles to "get-up" for this game. I rank East Carolina very high and I think at the end of the day, Tulsa does well here. Remember, Tulsa has played a tougher schedule including East Carolina, and even Arkansas at home. "The perfect season" was irrelevant against Buffalo and I think that has deflated this team some and Tulsa is ripe here for the win as their offense can score early and often.
Unit Play. #719. Take Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 over Michigan State. (Tuesday @ 7pm est).
2-1 Yesterday:
Loyola Maryland +12.5 over Niagara (W)
Texas/Ohio State Under (W)
Sacramento Kings +4: (L)
Winning 9 of 13 Days in NBA (9-4)
Winning 4 of 5 Days in NBA (4-1)
Going for 4th Winning Football week out of 5 with Selection Today.
Let's have no fear and take the Buckeyes. After all, if their football team can cover against Texas and nearly win outright, maybe this program does have hope when they play the better teams in the nation - j/k. As per this game, we have many things that are working in our favor. First of all, Ohio State comes off a tough opening conference loss to Minnesota on the road. That was a game they were competitive most of the way, led at many points and fell short late in the second half. This is not to say they will win against Michigan State on the road today. But, it is today highlight the importance of this game if Ohio State does not want to start the year 0-2 and thus they will play with a sense of urgency. Michigan State is doing just fine. They are 2-0. They defeated both Northwestern and Minnesota by double-digits. But, note, that Ohio State is better this year than they were last year - and they lost last year to this team by 7 points. Thus, this team has revenge, has a great sense of urgency as they do not want to start the year 0-2, are on the bounce-back and Michigan State might end up coming out a little flat today as they come off two big road conference wins. I do worry about a late Michigan State run here but don't count Ohio State out when it comes to being competitive on the road. Remember, this team defeated ACC Miami of Florida who is a top 25 power ranking team outright on the road. Plus, Ohio State is a 10-2 team who is a top 45 ranked team that has defeated Notre Dame and Butler. This team is good. So what they didn't beat Tubby's boys - I think they can hang by single digits against Michigan State with revenge, coming off a conference loss and Michigan State being a bit over-valued and coming out a bit flat after two huge road conference wins - besides, they were within single digits last year with a younger crew than what they have this year.
4 Unit Play. #715. Take New Orleans Hornets +8 over Los Angeles Lakers (Tuesday @ 10:35pm est). It was either this selection or the Memphis Grizzlies today but I decided to take the 8 points rather than lay the 4 points. Both Memphis and New Orleans have revenge. But, New Orleans comes off a brutal loss to Denver by 2 points on the road. That is a game frankly they let get away and should have won. This game is different from the last two contests when they face the Lakers. This time, they have Peja back and New Orleans typically plays very well against L.A. on the road as compared to at home. The last two games against the Lakers were in NO and although the scores indicate a bit of a closer contest, the Lakers absolutely buried them. But, when NO goes on the road to play the Lakers, they play very well and more importantly - cover. Check out this amazing stat. What if I told you that the Lakers have covered the last 4 contests in New Orleans. But, New Orleans has covered the last 3 contests at Los Angeles. New Orleans is fairly good with revenge as you can take a look at the Portland game as an example when this team went on the road to defeat the Blazers outright with revenge. The Hornets dislike the Lakers. They are healthy now. They are getting 8 points in a game they could win outright as they come off a 2 point loss to Denver and are even more focused due to the bounce-back and have historically done very well at L.A. when it comes to ATS covers. The road team is 6-1 ATS over the last 7 meetings and the Underdog has covered the last 9 times between these two teams. We're Hornet fans today.
(Released early last Thursday): 3 Unit Play. #266. Take Tulsa PK over Ball State. (January 6th, 8pm eastern). Ball State had their perfect season hopes shattered as they were defeated in their own conference Championship by Buffalo. Ball sports an offense ranked 11th in the nation and 17th in points scored. Ball's defense is ranked 54th overall and 20th in points allowed. Yet, all that flew out the door when this team gave up 42 points to Buffalo as their previous highest was 24 points before that. Ball did beat Navy but outside that, they have not played anyone who I feel is a bowl worthy type opponent. Now, Tulsa has the #1 offense in the nation but a defense that is ranked 85th overall and 85th in points allowed. This team lost their last 4 of 5 covers and once they gave up 70 points to Houston on the road. Of course, Vegas made it hard for this team to cover after they had covered their first 6 of 7 contests. This team lost to East Carolina at home in their last contest. You have to look at attitude and motivation. After all, the way I am beginning to cap bowl games more than ever is through which team wants to be there, who has the better defense and who has the better running game. In essence, who controls both sides of the line – offense an defensively. But, this game is a bit different. I think that a team that had nearly a perfect season simply struggles to "get-up" for this game. I rank East Carolina very high and I think at the end of the day, Tulsa does well here. Remember, Tulsa has played a tougher schedule including East Carolina, and even Arkansas at home. "The perfect season" was irrelevant against Buffalo and I think that has deflated this team some and Tulsa is ripe here for the win as their offense can score early and often.
13-3 system has a play today
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I saw this somewhere else, so I am not taking credit for it.
Just thought I would pass it along.
11-1 last season:
Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.
So here are the teams to take ATS this year:
Here are the official plays:
1. Wake Forest = win
2. South Florida = win
3. Arizona = win
4. TCU = loss
5. Notre Dame = win
6. NC State = WIN
7. Missouri = LOSS
8. Maryland = WIN
9. Rice = WIN
10. Air Force = LOSS
11. Kansas = WIN
12. USC= WIN
13. Kentucky = WIN
14. Alabama = LOSS
14. Virginia Tech= WIN
15. Connecticut= WIN
16. Ball State= ????
Tulsa is 122 and Ball St. is 116. Not a very big difference. For what its worth.
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I saw this somewhere else, so I am not taking credit for it.
Just thought I would pass it along.
11-1 last season:
Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.
So here are the teams to take ATS this year:
Here are the official plays:
1. Wake Forest = win
2. South Florida = win
3. Arizona = win
4. TCU = loss
5. Notre Dame = win
6. NC State = WIN
7. Missouri = LOSS
8. Maryland = WIN
9. Rice = WIN
10. Air Force = LOSS
11. Kansas = WIN
12. USC= WIN
13. Kentucky = WIN
14. Alabama = LOSS
14. Virginia Tech= WIN
15. Connecticut= WIN
16. Ball State= ????
Tulsa is 122 and Ball St. is 116. Not a very big difference. For what its worth.
