FARGO
TITLE: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference ATS BLOWOUT**
REASON FOR PICK: **9** 77.8% Non-Conference Game of the Year** The last two weeks have shown how teams can completely turn things around if they want to. Since Scott Linehan was fired, the Rams have a newfound confidence as they have won their two games under Jim Haslett and they have come against two tough opponents in Washington and Dallas. Yes, the Cowboys were without Tony Romo but if this game was played three weeks ago, St. Louis probably would not have shown up. This league is about confidence and the Rams have it right now.
New England caught some very early breaks against Denver on Monday night with turnovers and an injury to quarterback Jay Cutler. It was an impressive win no doubt but it is very unlikely the Patriots can do it two weeks in a row. That win over Denver was a big one and with a game at Indianapolis next week, this is a horrible spot for New England. The wins by St. Louis may have caught its attention but I am far from sold on this offense and its very aging defense.
The St. Louis offense is making strides. Marc Bulger, who was benched under Linehan which did not go over well with the other players, is coming off his best game against the Cowboys as he posted a 118.5 passer rating. The Rams 34 points scored was a season high and was just nine fewer points that the club had totaled over its first four games of the season. Steven Jackson ran everywhere against Dallas and there is no reason to believe he won’t do it again against the Patriots.
New England lost safety Rodney Harrison for the season and even though he is old, he was a big part of the defense. The secondary was not good to begin with and his loss hurts both the passing defense as well as the rushing defense. The Patriots are allowing 7.7 ypa which is 24th in the league and they are allowing 4.5 ypc on the ground which is also 24th. Thus the 313.2 ypg allowed overall, which is 13th in the NFL, is extremely skewed as this team gives up big chunks.
The St. Louis defense is no prize as it is 29th in the NFL overall but the Patriots offense is a shell of what it was last season. Matt Cassel had solid numbers against the Broncos but he is still unable to get the ball downfield on a consistent basis. Sammy Morris ran all over Denver but I don’t see him putting up another big game. The Rams defensive line is making strides. After recording just three sacks in their first three games, the Rams have 11 sacks in their past three contests.
As mentioned, the Patriots were beneficiaries of turnover by the Broncos on Monday night and that plays against them here. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced five or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential actually favoring the underdog at +0.9 ppg. The Rams keep the momentum going. 9* St. Louis Rams
3-1 on 9* in the nfl this year. loss was last week with colts
won yesterday 9* on oregon
paid confirmed
hno:
