Yankees vs. Rays MLB Preview and Odds Analysis

Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees is congratulated by third base coach Phil Nevin #88

Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees is congratulated by third base coach Phil Nevin #88

 

This week’s series between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays is going to be highly consequential. With the Boston Red Sox in first place in the AL East with a 22-14 record, the Yankees and Rays are tied for second place and are only three games behind. That is part of the reason why Tuesday night’s game is nationally televised.

Despite being in second place, the Yankees are -112 favorites to win the AL East on DraftKings. The Rays have the second highest odds of +500. Despite winning the American league last season, and having a 40-20 regular season record, the betting markets do not respect the Devil Rays.

Each team has a different strength. The Rays have strong pitchers, but a weak lineup. The Yankees have a strong lineup, and unreliable starting pitchers outside of Gerrit Cole. The question for this week’s series is if having a better lineup is more important than having a better pitching staff.

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field

Probable Pitchers:

Yankees: Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 4.41 ERA)

Rays: Luis Patino (1-0, 1.17 ERA)

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Red Sox vs. Rangers MLB Preview

Charlie Culberson #2 of the Texas Rangers. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

Charlie Culberson #2 of the Texas Rangers. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

 

Not much was expected from Boston and Texas according to the preseason baseball futures. The Rangers are living up to their end of the bargain currently by holding down the AL West cellar, while the Red Sox are surprising leaders in the AL East heading into their long weekend series.

 

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers

at Globe Life Field

 

Boston reaches the Lone Star State with a 3-game lead in the AL East and looking to build on a 3-game win streak. The Red Sox just took two in New York, holding the Mets lineup to one run in the short interleague series.

Texas resides in the AL West basement, five games behind the frontrunning Oakland Athletics. The Rangers have dropped five of their last six trips to the diamond, losing two of three to the Los Angeles Angels to begin this homestand and dragging around the second-worst run differential in the Junior Circuit.

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Red Sox vs. Mets MLB Preview

Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets and Edwin Diaz #39 celebrate. Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets and Edwin Diaz #39 celebrate. Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

The Mets offense hasn’t been great this season but will the nicer weather and being at home change their fortunes against the Red Sox?

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets

Tuesday, April 27, 2020 – 7:10 PM EDTat  Citi Field

Probable Pitchers:

Red Sox: Garrett Richards (0-2, 6.48 ERA)

Mets: David Peterson (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

The Red Sox offense has been one of the bigger surprises to start the season. They sit at 14-9 on the year and thanks to some clutch hitting, especially on the road, they’re in first place in the AL East. On the other hand, the Mets have been dealt with plenty of cancellations, postponements and lots of poor weather, playing in the rain, cold, and even the snow. The weather looks nice today and that should bode well for both teams. The Mets will send out David Peterson who has a 6.75 ERA on the season.

Dating back to last year, Peterson has struck out 8.29 batters per nine innings but has walked four per nine innings. The lefty has faced the Phillies twice and Cubs once this season. He’s had one solid performance but two of those three games, he’s left without even going five innings, allowing 12 runs in two games and one against the Phillies at home. Peterson is allowing a .349 wOBA against lefties this season and an ISO of .275 against righties this season. The Red Sox lineup features it all with lefties like Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers and righties like JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. This team will have five righties in the lineup against Peterson and two other lefties that can have some success against lefties to begin with.

On the other hand, Garrett Richards will take the hill for the Red Sox. He’s been awful since coming to Boston this season. Richards has allowed 14 runs and 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings through four starts with 18 hits and 13 walks. He has only struck out 12 batters and has more walks than strikeouts through four starts. Dating back to last year, he has struck out 7.68 batters per nine innings and allowed nearly four walks per nine innings as well. Righties are hitting a wOBA of .381 while lefties are hitting a wOBA of .339 against Richards this season.

The Mets hitting hasn’t been tremendous but on paper it looks tremendous. At home, against Richards, in nicer weather, expectations are a bit higher for this offense now. They’ll have five lefties in the lineup including Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil. If you looked at career stats, things would look bright for the Mets. If you look at stats this season, things aren’t as bright. Only Nimmo has been consistently able to get on base at a high rate against righties this season. JD Davis also has a high wOBA against righties but has only had 28 plate appearances due to an injury earlier in the season on a hit by pitch. Also, Pete Alonso is hitting righties at a higher rate than lefties to start the season.

Since joining the MLB, that’s always been the case but his strikeout numbers are high and his walk numbers are low. Prediction Peterson struck out 10 in his last start at Citi Field against the Phillies. He’s got solid strikeout stuff but will go up against a tough Red Sox offense. On the other hand, the Mets lineup has been dreadful to start the year but we’re going to assume that the offense picks it back up in better weather, at home. Let’s take Over 8.5 in this match-up. If it’s a 4-4 game, we’re winning this one.

MLB Bet: Over 8.5 (-110) at Bet 365

 

Cubs vs. Braves MLB Preview

Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

Based on the standings, the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves seem to be equals. The Cubs have a 10-11 record, and the Braves have a 9-12 record. The major difference between the two teams is that Chicago is viewed as a team that is rebuilding this season, while Atlanta is built to contend this season.

 

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves

Monday, April 26, 2020 – 7:10 PM EDT at Truist Park

 

Probable Pitchers:

Cubs: Zach Davies (1-2, 8.80 ERA)

Braves: Charlie Morton (1-1, 3.91 ERA)

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Mets vs. Cubs MLB Preview

Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs is congratulated by Javier Baez #9. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs is congratulated by Javier Baez #9. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Chicago fans are encouraged to dress accordingly for tonight’s game when the low-50s are projected on the thermometer. Cubs fans are also encouraged to bring their brooms in anticipation of sweeping the New York Mets on Thursday’s baseball betting card.

 

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

at Wrigley Field

Chicago looks to climb back to .500 in the standings with a win in the finale, while also dropping New York to an even record in the process. The Cubs took the first two contests, closer Craig Kimbrell snuffing a Mets rally attempt for a 3-1 final in Tuesday’s opener before bashing away for a 16-4 rout on Wednesday.

Winning the first two games of the series gives Chicago a 6-game string of dubyas over New York, the streak stretching back to June 2019. Wednesday’s blowout also left totals 4-2-1 O/U/P in the last seven matchups played on the Windy City’s North Side.

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