Padres vs. Athletics: The Floundering Fathers

Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres dodges a pitch. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres dodges a pitch. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

 

The San Diego Padres are vulnerable without Fernando Tatis – but they’re the value MLB pick Tuesday night versus the Oakland Athletics.

 

San Diego Padres vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, August 3, 2021 – 9:40 p.m. EDT at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum 

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Giants vs. Dodgers: King Josiah?

 

Josiah Gray #83 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches.  Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Josiah Gray #83 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Josiah Gray may or may not debut for the L.A. Dodgers this Tuesday when they host the San Francisco Giants. Does that alter our MLB picks?

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, July 20, 2021 – 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium

 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a hole in their starting rotation. Both Clayton Kershaw (strained forearm) and Trevor Bauer (administrative leave) are unavailable this week; David Price has been “promoted” from the bullpen into the No. 4 spot, but that leaves L.A. uncertain at press time who will start Tuesday’s game against their National League West rivals, the San Francisco Giants. DraftKings aren’t waiting around to find out who gets the nod. They’ve opened the Dodgers as –145 home favorites on their MLB odds board, which presents us with an interesting opportunity: Do we take L.A. at these odds, with the distinct possibility that they’ll hand the ball to Josiah Gray, their top pitching prospect in the minors? Or do we wait for confirmation on their starter, and deal with whatever odds come up at that point?

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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Preview and Best Bet

Starting pitcher Martin Perez #54 of the Boston Red Sox. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

Starting pitcher Martin Perez #54 of the Boston Red Sox. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

 

The Red Sox and Yankees will renew acquaintances and get back in the saddle after a COVID postponement on Thursday, leading us to this Friday night showdown. Let’s analyze this AL East rivalry and keep cashing our MLB picks!

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Friday, July 16, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

The Red Sox have a tenuous grasp on the division lead with the Tampa Bay Rays, just 1 ½ games in their rearview mirror, while the Yankees and Blue Jays are both eight games back. But Boston began staggering at the end of the first half of the season, losing four of their last five against pedestrian opponents (Angels and Phillies).

Meanwhile, the Yankees have struggled through a disappointing season and the cheers we thought we would hear emanating from Yankee Stadium have turned to jeers. The Bombers find themselves with a 46-43 mark and are close to falling out of the AL East race.

However, hope springs eternal in the second half, for all but those that are hopelessly out of the playoff hunt, and the Yankees are no different. Big things are expected of the Pinstripers in the remaining months and if their winning five of seven before the break is any indication then they could prove worthy of the optimism in the Bronx.

 

COVID Concerns

Last night’s game was postponed due to medical protocols and Aaron Judge is a key figure in all of this. He is one of three everyday New York players who are in COVID protocol, with the other two being Gio Urshela and Kyle Higashioka, while pitchers Nester Cortes Jr., Wandy Peralta, and Jonathan Loaisiga have confirmed cases.

The issue with Judge is that he was recently in Denver with all the other All-Stars shaking hands and high-fiving, possibly infecting everyone he came in contact with, including five fellow All-Stars from Boston who are now in similar protocols.

“Disappointing and frustrating,” is how Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone put it. “Nobody wants to be talking about this. We want to go back to normal. But some things are out of our control. We have to do the best we can with the circumstances and the hands we are dealt.”

 

Wanna Make a Bet?

Assuming Friday’s game goes off unhitched, the Red Sox will be sending Martin Perez (7-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) to the bump who will hope to be sharper than he was in his last outing when he allowed three runs on six hits over three-plus innings in an 11-2 loss to Philadelphia. Ironically, Perez posted identical numbers in his June 25th appearance against the Yankees but the outcome was vastly different as the Sox notched a 5-3 victory in that one.

Jordan Montgomery (3-4, 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will be the pitcher of record for New York this evening. He last saw action on July 8th and pitched fairly well but a pair of dingers contributed to all three runs against him, where he worked six-plus innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits in what resulted in a 4-0 loss to the Mariners.

Montgomery has faced the Red Sox just once this season, back on June 26th in which he dropped a 4-2 decision while working six innings and allowing eight hits on three runs, and inducing a season-high 13 ground balls.

Boston has dominated the Yankees this season, winning all six previous meetings with the most recent being a 9-2 thrashing at Fenway on June 27th. We should also consider the COVID effect on the Yankees which will undoubtedly thin their lineup and allow the Red Sox an opportunity to pounce. Lastly, the MLB odds are giving us a reason to back Boston, making them a slight underdog in this one at all of the best online sportsbooks.

  • If we take a look at a few betting trends, they all favor the Red Sox in this one:
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Perez’s last 4 starts as a road underdog.
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Perez’s last 4 Friday starts.
  • Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 Friday games.
  • Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 during Game 1 of a series.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -104 at SugarHouse

2021 MLB All-Star Game Picks and Odds Analysis

 

Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees pitches. Bob Levey/Getty Images/AFP

Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees pitches. Bob Levey/Getty Images/AFP

 

The Midsummer Cassic returns after a one-year hiatus and the action should be hot and heavy in the thin air of Coors Field. Let’s analyze this annual interleague showdown and determine which side is the right side and keep cashing our MLB picks.

 

American League vs. National League

Tuesday, July 13, 2021 – 7:30 PM EDT at Coors Field

Even the most casual baseball fan has their interest piqued for the return of the All-Star game after a dismal 2020 season in which it was canceled due to the global pandemic. It’s a return to normal, and that is perhaps the most important reason to cheer this perennial baseball classic. However, those who put their money where their collective mouths are, will be less inclined to dwell on the nostalgia and more apt to focus on winning money.

And to that end, we will take a look at the starting lineups, the backups, and the all-important pitching staffs of each squad. Without further ado, let’s get down to it and make it a winning Tuesday night as we intend to be collecting from the books when the night is through.

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Giants vs. Dodgers MLB Preview and Odds Analysis

Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a double. Meg Oliphant/Getty Images/AFP

Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a double. Meg Oliphant/Getty Images/AFP

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, June 29, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Probable Pitchers:

  • Giants: Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA)
  • Dodgers: Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51 ERA)

 

Stakes of the Matchup

Going into the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were a heavy favorite to win the NL West, while the San Francisco Giants were one of the biggest longshots. After almost half of the season has been played, The Giants have the best record in MLB, while the Dodgers have the second-best record.

This week, Los Angeles hosts San Francisco in an important divisional series. LA is currently only 2.5 games behind the Giants as they are in the middle of a four-game winning streak. On Monday, the Dodgers won the series opener. For Tuesday’s game, the Dodgers have almost a 58% chance of winning according to the money line odds.

Not only do the Giants and Dodgers have similar records, but both teams have similar strengths. The Dodgers have a starting pitching rotation that is well built around reliable veterans and promising young players. San Francisco’s rotation is built around veterans having the best seasons of their careers.

Both LA and SF have strong lineups as well. The Giants lineup averages 4.92 runs per game which is the 3rd best in the National League while the Dodgers average 5.05 runs per game which is the most in the National League.

What is scary about LA’s Lineup is that they were negatively affected by the absences of former NL MVP 1B Cody Bellinger and IF Max Muncy who is a dark horse NL MVP contender. With both Bellinger and Muncy back in the Dodgers’ lineup, the Dodgers should score even more runs than they have been scoring recently.

 

Pitching Matchup

For Tuesday night’s game, both teams are relying on strong starting pitchers. Los Angeles is relying on breakout star Walker Buehler who has been the ace of their rotation this season. Opposing Buehler is Kevin Gausman for the Giants who like Buehler is his team’s best starting pitcher.

This season Buehler has an 7-1 record with a 2.51 ERA. However, Buehler also has a 3.73 xFIP meaning he should be allowing 1.22 more runs per nine innings than he is currently allowing. Even though Buehler should regress, the Dodgers are well positioned in his starts as Buehler is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start. In a league where the typical starting pitcher is only pitching for slightly more than five innings, Buehler’s stamina and consistency is an asset.

Opposing Buehler is Kevin Gausman who is having a career year. For his career, Gausman has a respectable 4.01 ERA. This season, Gausman has an 8-1 record with a 1.49 ERA, and is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start. However, Gausman also has a 3.05 xFIP which is twice his ERA. Against a strong Dodgers lineup, Gausman should have a tougher time than usual on Tuesday night.

 

Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers should win on Tuesday night against the Giants, and they have been appropriately set as -145 favorites. With neither team being a good betting option, there is value in betting on the over for Tuesday’s game.

Combined both teams average 9.97 runs per game which is almost three full runs higher than the run total. While there will be less scoring than usual because of the pitching matchup, it is hard to imagine a game between both teams where fewer than seven runs are score. In a full nine-inning game, it is rare for a run total to be set at only seven runs.

While the total opened at 7.5 runs, it is worth the extra juice to get the over at seven runs at -115 on BetMGM. The game could end in a 5-2 or 3-4 score for a push or go over for a win. Betting on six or fewer runs score between Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Buster Posey is unrealistic, that is why I like the over.

MLB Pick: Over 7 Runs -115 (BetMGM)