Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

The new-look Dallas Mavericks are a bargain NBA pick when they host the Golden State Warriors this Thursday night.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Thursday, March 3, 2022 – 8:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center

The Dallas Mavericks were right all along – or so it seems. Their decision to send Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline was a head-scratcher, at least in terms of what they got back, but if it means giving the ball to Luka Doncic, and letting him cook, all is well in Big D. The Mavs are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS since the deadline, and they can extend their hot streak this Thursday at the expense of the Golden State Warriors, who opened as 1.5-point road faves at Bet365.

Three’s Company

This should be a much stronger betting opportunity than Tuesday’s game between the Mavericks (37-25 SU, 34-27-1 ATS) and the Los Angeles Lakers. We gave Los Angeles a very slight lean at +4.5 or better; the Lakers were +5 when the NBA odds closed, and they earned a push in a 109-104 loss.

Well done if you chose under 220 instead. That push snapped a four-game ATS streak for the Mavericks, capped by last Saturday’s 107-101 win over Golden State (–3.5 at home). The Warriors looked like they had it sewn up in the fourth quarter, but they had no answer for Doncic (34 points, 11 rebounds) – nor for Spencer Dinwiddie (24 points on 10-of-14 shooting), who came over from Washington alongside Davis Bertans in the Porzingis deal.

Both Doncic (25 points) and Dinwiddie (14 points) cooled off somewhat in Los Angeles, but they were still instrumental in leading yet another fourth-quarter comeback. The Mavs have feasted using a three-guard lineup featuring these gentlemen and Jalen Brunson on the floor together in crunch time. Has the betting market caught up yet? Maybe not.

Iggy Goes Down

The Warriors (43-19 SU, 30-28-4 ATS) are the bigger reason why Thursday’s NBA pick is much tastier than Tuesday’s. They just haven’t been themselves without Draymond Green (back), who’s still a couple of weeks away from making his return; the Dubs are 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS since Green last played, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS since they stood pat at the trade deadline.

Green isn’t the only player missing for Golden State. Andre Iguodala (back) has been out since February 7, removing yet another former All-Defensive first-teamer from the equation. Iguodala has been in and out of the lineup all season long, and he just turned 38 in January, but he was performing at a very high level on defense this year. The over is 5-2-1 for the Dubs during this Iggy-less stretch.

Golden State still has some quality defenders in Kevon Looney, Otto Porter Jr., and Gary Payton II, among others, but without Green and Iguodala, they’re going to have their hands full trying to contain Doncic this Thursday. Bet accordingly.

NBA Pick: Mavericks +1.5 (–110) with Bet365