Steph Curry is back in the lineup for the Warriors. But does that truly make the Warriors a favorite on the road against the Hawks after losing by 50 to the Raptors last game?
Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, April 4th, 2021 – 7:30pm EST at State Farm Arena
The Golden State Warriors are 23-26 on the season but you wouldn’t have known if you decided to tune into their last game against the Raptors. The Warriors lost 130-77 to the Raptors without Steph Curry who has a tailbone injury.
It’s likely that Curry will be playing in this one against the Hawks, but could be without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall on the bench due to injuries. The Warriors have scored 108.8 points per possession this season, good for 23rd in the league. They’re shooting a 53.8 percent effective field goal percentage and turn the ball over at 14.8 percent.
This is a team that is struggling on the offensive glass and only gets to the line 19.4 times per game. These numbers will get worse with Green and even Paschall on the bench, which is certainly why the Warriors lost by so many points to the Raptors with Curry out as well.
The Warriors had to rely on Andrew Wiggins who averages 18.2 points per game and Kelly Oubre who averages 14.9 points per game. Both of these wings have been solid on the glass but without Green and Curry, assists are hard to come by for this team. Thankfully, Curry’s tailbone is okay and he’s going to play in this game against the Hawks.
The Warriors have been above average on defense this season, holding opponents to 112 points per 100 possessions and a 53.2 percent effective field goal percentage. The Warriors have done well forcing turnovers but have been getting wrecked on the glass and commit a ton of fouls.
The Hawks are a team that dominates on the offensive glass and find a way to get to the line at will. That’s an area where the Warriors struggle defensively. The Hawks get 27.7 percent of offensive rebounds and get to the line 23 times per game, with both being top five numbers in the NBA.
The Hawks will get many second chances on offense in this one and while they shoot about average, getting second chances changes this offensive immensely. The Hawks are led by Trae Young who averages 25.5 points per game along with 9.6 assists and four rebounds per game. The Hawks, despite a losing record, decided to hold onto John Collins at the trade deadline and he’s averaging 18.2 points per game.
They’ve been winning the glass on offense due to Clint Capela, who is averaging 14.9 points and 14.1 rebounds per game. Over four of those rebounds have been offensive. The Hawks haven’t been incredible on defense. They don’t force many turnovers and don’t dominate the defensive glass, but the Warriors are the worst team in the offensive glass and rarely get second opportunities.
Atlanta is allowing 52.8 percent effective field goal percentage and 113.2 points per 100 possessions. If the Hawks are able to limit shooting from the Warriors, the Hawks should be able to finish possessions and keep the Warriors at one-and-done.
Prediction
Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and now they’re favorites on the road. Yeah he’s an MVP. He’s a high-caliber player but he doesn’t get to the line like Young and he certainly can’t rebound like Capela. Give me the Hawks, at home, with the points in this one.
NBA Pick: Hawks +2 (-110) at Bet 365
