The Golden State Warriors were the winning NBA pick Wednesday night, but can they do it again this Friday versus the Atlanta Hawks?
Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
Making NBA picks is simple – usually. The team you choose has the much more difficult task of covering; if they succeed even 53 percent of the time, you’ve got it made as a sports bettor. The Miami Heat were our choice in this space for Wednesday’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors, and they had the advantage, for the most part, attempting 85 field goals to Golden State’s 77.
Final score: Warriors 118, Heat (–9.5 at home) 104. The Dubs (48-25 SU, 36-33-4 ATS) are still the wrong pick for Friday’s road game versus the Atlanta Hawks, for most of the same reasons on their side – although Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Otto Porter Jr. are all expected to play after sitting out Wednesday for maintenance.
In this case, the Hawks (36-37 SU, 30-43 ATS) are more of a “buy low” commodity than the Heat, laying just 1.5 points on the NBA odds board at MaximBet as we go to press. Atlanta’s health situation is much better than Golden State’s at this point; it’s a breath of fresh air for the Hawks, who have battled injuries all season. It’s also the source of much of their betting value in this matchup.
Of the 30 teams in the NBA, three of them are tied this year with 19 players spending time on the injured list – the Hawks are one of them. However, the only missing player for Friday’s contest is John Collins (foot), who might be out for the rest of the season.
Losing Collins is obviously not ideal for Atlanta; the drop-off in performance from Collins to De’Andre Hunter is significant.
Everyone else is present and accounted for, though. Danilo Gallinari is expected back in the lineup after taking off Wednesday’s 122-101 loss to the Detroit Pistons (+5 at home). Lou Williams should also be back after missing the last two games for personal reasons. And backup guard Skylar Mays is due to return from the non-COVID illness list.
Gallinari is the key player from that trio. He can still play some quality basketball at age 33; Gallinari’s defense might be replacement-level, but he makes up for it with his sweet stroke and his glue-guy skill set. According to Basketball-Reference, the Hawks are plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions when Gallinari is on the floor compared to off.
It’s easy to see why. The big Italian is a massive upgrade over Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who started Wednesday’s game against Detroit in Gallinari’s absence and finished the night with three points on 1-of-7 shooting. Gallinari’s return also shifts Hunter over from power forward to his “natural” position at small forward, where he will hopefully do less damage to Atlanta’s starting lineup. Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Hawks –1.5 (–110) with MaximBet