Trail Blazers vs. Warriors NBA Picks and Odds Analysis

Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors

Friday, November 26, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center

Portland Jekyll and Hyde 

The Blazers’ have been pretty impressive at times this month, with wins over Chicago and Denver, but when you look a little deeper, you realize that this team has been great at home and very suspect on the road. 

For instance, overall, the Blazers are above .500 for the month of November, but they still have a negative net rating overall. That’s because at home, they put clamps on visiting teams with a defensive rating of 107.7 and a net rating of plus 8.8 points per 100 possessions over six games played at Moda Center in November. They are also undefeated during those six games.

However, start counting their road games over this month and the Blazers are just 1-6 SU and their defensive rating falls to 118.1. 

This has been an issue during October as well and it’s a developing trend that you may just want to auto-fade the Blazers on the road. For whatever reason, their defense only shows up at home and their offense falls off a pretty noticeable cliff. 

That being said, they have one of their toughest road games to date on Friday as they head into Golden State. Considering how badly they have looked on the road lately and this season, I can imagine why there are many people lining up to fade them here, but I have a different approach. 

Even though their defense has not traveled well this season, their only chance in this game is to play defense and I think they know it.

If they don’t play any defense and this game turns into a track meet, the Warriors will win and cover easily. They might even win by double figures. 

That being said, if the Blazers slow this game down and force the Warriors to defend in the half court, that will do two things. It will firstly limit the amount of chances the talented Warriors offense gets and it will make defense for the Blazers easier, because they won’t have to defend for as many possessions in a slower style game. 

The Sharp Pick

If we can get a game where the Blazers are playing defense, the under could be a great value here because the sportsbooks are assuming their defense won’t or can’t show up.

The Warriors’ defense has been talked about a lot this season, but for good reason. They are currently the only team holding opponents to less than 100 points per 100 possessions and at home their defense gets another 1-to-2 points better as well. 

This will be the first meeting between these two Western Conference rivals this season, so there may be a feeling out period early in the game, but that should slow down as we get to the second half. 

Even if the Warriors jump out to an early lead, that should only help their defense, which will be able to clamp down and take some chances by jumping in between those Damian Lillard pass lanes. 

These two had some high-scoring battles last season, but their most recent game was 108-106 and I think this season with the lower scoring factors like the new ball, the score for this one will be closer to that than a game where both teams are in the 120s. 

NBA Pick: Under 225.5 (-114) at MaximBet