The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will play an important series over the weekend.
The Braves are inches away from the NL East divisional lead, while the Phillies are looking to keep their distance in the NL Wild Card. Who will win the four-game series?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Braves vs. Phillies Weekend Series: What You Should Know
The Phillies and Braves will begin a new series on Thursday. This isn’t the only critical series on the slate this weekend, either.
The Yankees play the Red Sox, the Blue Jays take on the Reds, and the White Sox face the Guardians.
What I’m getting at is that the MLB has a lot of exciting matchups over the weekend. You’ve got to pay attention!
Anyway, we’re going to take about the Phillies and Braves game here. This is a four-game series with a lot at stake. When writing this, the Braves trail the Mets by one game in the NL East.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding on to the final spot in the NL Wild Card. Someone’s going to lose games this weekend, and it won’t be a good look for either team. Let’s break this series down.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, September 22, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Braves Pitcher
The Braves will start the weekend series with Max Fried on Thursday. He’s holding a 3.76 xFIP with 22.8% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. His ground ball rate is high, and his line drive rate is low.
He’s one of the more consistent pitchers in the game.
Phillies Pitcher
On the other hand, Ranger Suarez will get the call for the Phillies. He’s another lefty with a 4.77 xFIP over the last 30 days.
He hasn’t performed all that well, with a low strikeout rate and high walk rate over the last 30 days. However, Suarez has limited extra-base hits, although he still has a wOBA of .351 to righties over his last 93 plate appearances against them.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, September 23, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Braves Picher
On Friday, we’ll get to see Jake Odorizzi on the mound for Atlanta. He’s got a 4.31 xFIP but still has a high strikeout rate along with a low walk rate.
He’s limited walks and line drives and has only allowed a little bit of power to lefties over the last 30 days.
Phillies Pitcher
He’ll face Aaron Nola, who has a 2.98 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 30% of batters while walking just 3.3% of batters.
Nola has also allowed some extra-base hit power to lefties, but other than that, he’s been terrific all year long.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, September 24, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Braves Picher
In Saturday’s showdown, Kyle Wright will get the call. He’s holding a 3.54 xFIP over the last 30 days with high strikeouts and high ground balls. He’s earned 64.1% of ground balls and has limited line drives to 15.4%.
He’s also not allowing many extra-base hits and has been one of the more consistent pitchers in this rotation for the Braves. He could finish the season with 20 wins.
Phillies Pitcher
Meanwhile, we’ll see Bailey Falter on the mound for the Phillies in this one. He’s another lefty with a 4.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s rarely inducing ground balls and giving up over 24% of line drives.
Lefties have a .222 ISO in their last 18 plate appearances, but Falter has done well against the many righties he’s faced.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Braves Picher
Lastly, Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves. He’s holding a 5.10 xFIP over the last 30 days with 10.3% of walks. He’s been hot and cold this year but has done well limiting line drives. That should help him in this game.
Still, righties are hitting a .454 wOBA and ISO of .350 over the last month against Morton.
Phillies Pitcher
Finally, Kyle Gibson will get the start for the Phillies. He’s got a 4.18 xFIP over the last 30 days with 23% of strikeouts and 6.9% of walks.
He was still crushed in his last start against the Blue Jays and is allowing nearly 40% of hard contact.
The Offenses
Phillies Offense
Against righties, the Phillies are hitting a .196 ISO and wOBA of .336. J.T. Realmuto has been red hot along with Alec Bohm. Six out of the nine projected batters have a wOBA of above average.
Against lefties, Rhys Hoskins has turned it on, along with Realmuto and Jean Segura. Edmundo Sosa would also likely get starts against lefties, as he’s hitting a .688 ISO in his last 17 plate appearances against lefties.
Braves Offense
On the other hand, the Braves are hitting a .213 ISO and wOBA of .345 against righties. Ronald Acuna is finally starting to hit consistently along with Michael Harris and Marcell Ozuna when facing righties.
When the Braves face lefties, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and William Contreras are having success. Atlanta’s pretty balanced when facing both sides of the plate.
Braves vs. Phillies: Weekend Series Prediction
Therefore, I think the Braves will continue their dominance over the Phillies.
Philadelphia is home and should end up earning a win when Nola pitches against Odorizzi, but that would be the only game that I’d give the Phillies in this four-game series.
