This Weekend Top Series Preview: Battle for the Top Spot Between Mets and Braves

max scherzer new york mets pitcher mlb
Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets pitches in the rain during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves. Adam Hagy/Getty Images/AFP

The NL East is all tied up between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. Over the weekend, the two teams will play one of the most important series’ of their life.

Which team can earn the series win and take first place in the NL East?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Mets vs. Braves Weekend Series: What You Should Know

Heading into Wednesday, the Mets and Braves are tied for first place in the NL East. Both teams are 97-58 and will have an off day on Thursday.

Scheduling might change for this series due to Hurricane Ian, but the series will eventually play out.

This is going to be the biggest race in the MLB as we conclude the MLB regular season next week. Both teams made sure to have their best starters available for this series.

Here’s a breakdown of the three-game series between two NL East rivals, the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Friday, September 30, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Mets’ Pitching

The Mets will begin the road series with Chris Bassitt on the mound. The right-hander has a 4.30 xFIP but has struck out nearly 22% of batters, while earning nearly 48% of ground balls over the last 30 days.

He’s limited power against both sides and has kept teams off the base paths with a low wOBA against both sides as well.

Braves’ Pitching

On the other hand, Max Fried will get the start for the Braves. He’s a lefty with a 3.67 xFIP. He’s also got 25.2% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. Fried can induce a high amount of grounders and limited line drives.

Fried’s got better numbers in the first game of the series, but even if the Braves win this one, it’s going be to hard for the Braves to win the next two.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Mets’ Pitching

Jacob deGrom is coming off his worst outing of the season. He probably won’t duplicate that. He still has a 2.51 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 39.1% of batters over the last 30 days.

Sometimes, he’s allowed a little bit too much power to lefties, but overall, most batters aren’t capable of putting wood on the ball when he pitches.

Braves’ Pitching

Against deGrom will be a 20-game winner in Kyle Wright. Wright has a 3.70 xFIP with 23.3% of strikeouts. He’s also induced nearly 70% of ground balls while allowing just 14.5% of line drives.

But it’s hard to stick toe-to-toe with deGrom, and Wright will find that out. One mistake and Wright will lose his chance at 21 wins.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 07:08 PM EDT at Truist Park

Mets’ Pitching

In the finale on Sunday night, Max Scherzer will take the mound. Scherzer has a 2.60 xFIP over the last 30 days with 36.8% of strikeouts.

He’s limited teams to a .156 BABIP and has been in a rhythm since he came off the injured list for a second time.

Braves’ Pitching

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton will get the ball for the Braves.

He’s a righty that has performed the worst of any pitcher that’s starting in this series. Morton has walked nearly 11% of batters and has allowed almost 22% of line drives.

The Offenses

Mets’ Offense

The Mets have a .200 ISO and wOBA of .361 against lefties over the last 30 days. Only Jeff McNeil and Darin Ruf have struggled to get on base in the projected lineup for the Mets.

They’ll take on a lefty in Max Fried in the first game of the series. The Mets have limited ground balls but also aren’t hitting many line drives against lefties.

The lineup has limited strikeouts to 18.6% and when you put the ball in play, good things happen, as the Braves have seen countless times this year when playing the Mets.

Against righties, they haven’t performed better. They’ve struck out at a higher rate and are hitting ground balls at a much higher rate too. Only Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar have been hot at the plate against righties.

Braves’ Offense

The Braves will mostly take on righties throughout their series against the Mets. Atlanta is hitting a .234 ISO and wOBA of .368 against righties in the last 30 days. The Braves have even hit over 25% of line drives and have limited ground balls to 39.7%.

If a really good pitcher is going up against a really good hitter, I’ll always take the pitcher to get the job done.

The Braves have some potential against an inconsistent Chris Bassitt, but with Atlanta striking out 24.5% of the time against righties, there’s a good chance that deGrom and Scherzer are able to put the Braves away with their strikeout stuff.

I like the Mets to win two of three in Atlanta.