The best week of the college football postseason is here, and we will learn a lot about the future of the sport in a few days. Not only will we learn who makes it to the National Championship, but some teams will try to make strides before the end of the college football season.
Can Alabama end the year on a high note before Bryce Young heads to the NFL? What should we expect from Mississippi State after the tragic passing of Mike Leach? Can TCU upset Michigan and make it to the National Championship despite the NCAAF odds?
Let’s look at some of the top games of the weekend and make some NCAAF picks. We’ll start with one of the weirder games on the massive slate. This game might not be exciting, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be valuable.
Music City Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, December 31, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Nissan Stadium
Name a more romantic pairing than the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Under hitting. Well, it’s actually the Kentucky Wildcats hitting the Under. Kentucky has hit the under 11 times in 12 games. The Iowa Hawkeyes have never been an explosive offense, but things are even crazier this year.
To make matters worse, Will Levis will sit out the Music City Bowl as he prepares for the NFL Draft. Kentucky is on a backup quarterback without any key stars on offense, and the Hawkeyes have massive turnover issues this year.
Nashville has gotten over the bitter temperatures, but weather will still be a factor in Nissan Stadium. Betting the Under sounds bizarre when it is this low, but neither team will have many opportunities to score.
Honestly, this is a sicko’s paradise. This game will be sloppy, chaotic, and hard to watch. That’s why I like the Under hitting.
NCAAF Pick: Under 31.5 (-118) at FanDuel
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, December 31, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
TCU has kept games close in key moments this year, and its only loss was in overtime. Max Duggan will look to turn things around after losing the Big 12 Championship, and I think TCU has a genuine shot to win this game.
Either way, I like them to at least keep things close. Michigan is a solid team, but the defense will have a hard time stopping Duggan if he gets into a rhythm. I could see this going play-for-play into the fourth quarter, and TCU could actually win if things go right.
Michigan has experience and better wins, but TCU aligns well against the Wolverines. They can score in bunches, and the defense is able to force turnovers and flip the script quickly. If they can get key stops, this one will go down to the final possession.
The key is to get this over a touchdown. I wouldn’t like TCU at +6.5. However, they can lose by a full touchdown and still cover the spread. That adds value with the potential of overtime.
NCAAF Pick: TCU +7.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, December 31, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Georgia’s defense has been stifling all year, and the offense would love to churn out long drives in this game. With Jalen Carter fully healthy, I find it unlikely that Ohio State will be able to run consistently.
CJ Stroud has the ability to take over games, but he isn’t one to overcome pressure consistently. That worries me against this UGA defensive front. Without his best receiver, the offense will have a lower ceiling.
Even if Georgia runs away with this, they likely won’t score over 42 points. That leaves plenty of space for a blowout without hitting the Over. I expect Georgia to score in the 30s, but I don’t see both teams reaching that level of success.
I like UGA to cover the spread, but I like the Under to hit even more. Georgia will take care of business, run the clock and move on if they win convincingly. This isn’t the time to show all of your tricks unless you have to, and I don’t think they will have to against the Buckeyes.
NCAAF Pick: Under 62.5 (-110) at BetMGM