We’ve got an excellent basketball slate for tonight. Here are three NBA picks to consider if you’re looking to bet on it.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, February 01, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at FedExForum
Teams Analysis
The Portland offense has earned 117 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. The Trail Blazers will turn the ball over at a high rate, but they’ve earned 27.5% of offensive rebounds and get to the foul line at a very high pace.
Memphis already beat the Blazers 111-106 back in early November. But we’re in February now so we won’t put too much weight into that.
The Grizzlies have held teams to 110 points per 100 possessions while limiting teams to a 52.2% effective field goal percentage. Again, Memphis will earn turnovers and has been average on the defensive glass. Without Steven Adams, it might be more tricky.
The difference should be Memphis’ offense. The Grizzlies add 115.9 points per 100 possessions while limiting turnovers to under 14%. Memphis doesn’t take the best quality shots, but they’ve earned 32.2% of offensive rebounds and many second chances.
The Blazers have allowed 116.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s 26th in the NBA. They’re not earning turnovers and will be outmatched on the offensive glass, even without Adams.
The Pick
It’s more of a system thing for the Grizzlies. They crash the glass. Let’s ride the Grizzlies to cover the 5.5-point spread.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Wednesday, February 01, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at Toyota Center
Teams Analysis
We’re probably not going to get much defense in this game. The Rockets are 28th in defensive points per 100 possessions, 27th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 24th in turnover percentage. Houston has succeeded on the defensive glass, holding teams to 26.3% of offensive rebounds. But overall, the defense could have done better. That’s ultimately why the Rockets are sitting at 12-38 on the season.
The Thunder aren’t that much better offensively, but they’ll do enough. The offense has limited turnovers to 13.3%. That means that they’ll get shots up. And while they won’t get a ton of foul shots, the team is still scoring 113.7 points per 100 possessions while adding a 53.6% effective field goal percentage.
On the flip side, the Rockets are also the least efficient offense in the nation. However, the Rockets have earned 32.8% of offensive rebounds, the top rate in the NBA. They’ll face a Thunder unit that has allowed 29.6% of offensive rebounds. That’s 28th in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball.
Houston’s going to be active on the offensive glass, which will help turn many misses into second-chance points. The Thunder have held teams to a 54% effective field goal percentage, but the Thunder will also foul at a high rate and give up so many second chances.
The Pick
Houston will give up plenty of turnovers, but if the Rockets can minimize them slightly against the Thunder, we’ll have a high offensive game. Even if the Rockets turn the ball over, the Thunder can add points on fastbreaks.
Let’s take the Over 232.5.
NBA Pick: Over 232.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, February 01, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Vivint Arena
Teams Analysis
This is the first two meetings between the Raptors and Jazz this season. The Jazz are trading wins for losses recently. Meanwhile, the Raptors have won three of their last five games. The Raptors have already played four games on the West Coast. This is another one.
Toronto is very good at limiting turnovers. That’s always crucial when on the road. The Raptors have given up 12.1% of turnovers this season, which is the best rate in the NBA. The Raptors have also hauled in 30.1% of offensive rebounds, and that’s significant because the Jazz have allowed 27.9% of offensive rebounds.
Utah is allowing 116.6 points per 100 possessions. The defense hasn’t played well throughout the year. But they’ll get the Raptors to take some poor shots. It’s just that Toronto will earn second chances and succeed on the offensive glass.
Although the Jazz aren’t great defensively, the offense has done wonders. The offense has earned close to 118 points per 100 possessions this season. Turnovers will be high against the Raptors. But every team has had that issue against Toronto.
The Pick
Expect the Jazz to get better shots in this game. They should also be able to have success on the offensive glass. The Jazz has earned 29.4% of offensive rebounds and a 21.2 free throw rate.
I trust both offenses to get the job done tonight. Utah will shoot quality looks, while the Raptors will earn many second chances and limit turnovers.
NBA Pick: Over 230 (-118) at SugarHouse
