Top MLB Picks for Tuesday
It’s a stacked slate in the MLB tonight. Here are three betting picks that I’ll be placing tonight. Let us know if you’re tailing, and let’s win some profit together!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, May 09, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays struggled to hit against Kyle Gibson last night, but they might get back on track tonight. Rodriguez has a 3.92 xFIP with over 30% of strikeouts this season. He’s still holding a 5.46 ERA on the season in 28 innings and has a WHIP of 1.54. But this season, he’ll progress each and every five nights.
Rodriguez has watched lefties hit a .386 wOBA and ISO of .250 in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, righties are also hitting a .356 wOBA and ISO of .208.
The projected lineup for the Rays is hitting a .257 ISO and wOBA of .363 over the last 30 days. Only Isaac Paredes has a lower ISO than .182 against righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Zach Eflin will take the hill. He’s resurrected his career with the Rays and has a 4-0 record with a 2.25 ERA. Eflin also has a 2.79 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out close to 30% of batters. His walks are down, his ground balls are up, and his line drive rate is meager.
Baltimore has hit a .307 wOBA against righties and has struck out over 21% of the time while only walking 9% with the projected lineup over the last 30 days.
I’ll back the Rays at -125 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-125) at WynnBet
Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, May 09, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees will have Clarke Schmidt on the mound tonight. Schmidt has a 3.78 xFIP with nearly 27% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’s also kept walks down but is giving up a lot of extra-base hits and a BABIP of .400.
Schmidt has allowed an ISO of .283 to his last 50 lefties and a .212 ISO to his last 55 righties. But the Athletics only have three batters hitting an ISO of .170 or better.
New York Yankees
Meanwhile, the Yankees will have Aaron Judge back in their lineup. That’ll be big against Drew Rucinski of the Athletics. Rucinski has a 6.18 xFIP over the last month and has walked more batters than struck out.
He’s been worse against lefties, but righties should be able to hit hard contact into play against Rucinski.
Anthony Rizzo and Jake Bauers should slug against Rucinski, and Aaron Judge has always hit borderline starters in the MLB well. Judge has a .333 ISO over his last 59 plate appearances and should add some juice to this Yankees lineup fast.
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-111) at SBK
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, May 09, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
San Diego Padres
Louie Varland will take the hill for the Twins. He has a 5.91 ERA on the season but is holding an xFIP of 2.73 over the last 30 days. Varland has struck out close to 30% of batters and has walked only 6.4%.
Still, righties are hitting a wOBA of .428 and ISO of .429 over their last 31 plate appearances against Varland.
The Padres have hit a .153 ISO and wOBA of .302 against righties, using their projected lineup over the last 30 days. It’s nothing special. Juan Soto has hit well. Xander Bogaerts is getting on base, and Matt Carpenter has hit some extra-base hits. But that’s about it against righties.
Then there’s Michael Wacha. He’ll pitch for the Padres with a 5.46 ERA. Wacha has a 6.51 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out only 15.6% of the batters in that time frame.
Lefties have hit a .345 ISO, while righties have knocked a .200 ISO. Wacha is struggling and will face a Twins projected lineup with a .201 ISO and wOBA of .305 against righties.
There’s more power potential in the Minnesota lineup at home. Byron Buxton has crushed righties. Max Kepler, Carlos Correa, and Joey Gallo also have some extra-base hit potential against Wacha.
I’ll take the Twins here.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-110) at WynnBet