Picks Summary
• Rays vs. Orioles: Rays ML (-175) at BetMGM
• Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cubs ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Astros vs. Angels: Under 9 (-120) at Bet365
We’ve got a smaller slate to begin the week in the MLB, but there’s still plenty of action for our MLB picks with lots of value on the board. Let’s earn some profit and enjoy some baseball tonight!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Monday, May 08, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Teams Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays will face Kyle Gibson in tonight’s matchup against the Orioles. Gibson is 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA. He’s been a bit lucky, especially since he has a 5.18 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Gibson has struck out just 15.4% of batters and has allowed 8.1% of walks in that time frame. He’ll now take on a Rays lineup that has hit a .215 ISO and wOBA of .338 against righties in the last month.
Gibson has also allowed a .455 wOBA and ISO of .255 against lefties over his last 62 lefties faced. The Rays’ lefties have combined to hit a .257 ISO and wOBA of .349 against righties over the last 30 days.
Baltimore Orioles
On the other hand, Shane McClanahan will take the hill for the Rays. He’s 6-0 with a 2.03 ERA on the season.
He’s got an xFIP of 3.44 over the last 30 days and has struck out 34.2% of batters in that same time frame. Baltimore has hit a .158 ISO and wOBA of .328 against lefties in the last 30 days. They’ve also struck out just 20.2% of the time. But the offense doesn’t compare to what Tampa Bay’s bringing.
The Pick
Let’s back the Rays at -175.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-175) at BetMGM
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Monday, May 08, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Teams Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will face Marcus Stroman, who has been extremely good this year. Stroman has had a 3.71 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s not earning a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s earning close to 58% of ground balls over the last month.
No team has consistently hit extra-base hits against Stroman this year. The Cardinals have a .153 ISO and wOBA of .300 against righties with their projected lineup over the last 30 days. That won’t get the job done against the top pitchers in the league.
Chicago Cubs
Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas will get the start for the Cardinals. He has a 4.87 xFIP and even lower strikeouts than Stroman. Mikolas won’t earn high grounders and gives up nearly 28% of line drives.
The Cubs haven’t been the most consistent offense, either. But they’ve done some shakeups and are hitting a .320 wOBA against righties. Chicago certainly has the better matchup against Mikolas, who has a 5.79 ERA.
The Pick
I’m on the Cubs at -125.
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, May 08, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Teams Analysis
Houston Astros
Houston will face Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. Sandoval has a 2.93 ERA on the season. The lefty has earned over 52% of ground balls and has limited line drives below 20%. Teams rarely hit extra-base hits against Sandoval.
Meanwhile, the top of the Astros’ lineup has struggled. Mauricio Dubon, Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker have all struggled to hit lefties with power over the last 30 days.
Los Angeles Angels
The Astros will pitch Hunter Brown. He’s 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA on the season. Brown also holds an xFIP of 3.79 with 26.3% of strikeouts over the last month. The righty has walked over 10% of batters but has earned 53.5% of ground balls in the last 30 days.
Like Sandoval, hitters are not earning many extra-base hits against Brown.
Brown will have his work cut out against Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Both have delivered against righties consistently, but the rest of the lineup hasn’t been all that consistent. Anthony Rendon has proved he’s still capable of producing, but that’s about it.
The Pick
I’ll ride the Under in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-120) at Bet365
