Our Top Friday Picks
- • Cardinals -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • Nationals – Diamondbacks Under 9 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • Giants (+112) at BetRivers
There’s a loaded slate in the MLB tonight. I’ve added three of my favorite betting picks, including an underdog pick.
I added the Red Sox yesterday over Kevin Gausman and got the win. Now I’ll try the same against another premier ace tonight. Are you brave enough to tail?
Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, May 05, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers just swept the New York Mets, but don’t read too much into that. They’ll face Jordan Montgomery tonight, who has a 3,95 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Montgomery has limited ISO numbers to lefties and righties and will face a Tigers lineup with a 093 ISO against lefties over the last 30 days. The power numbers exploded for the Tigers earlier this week. But don’t expect all that to continue throughout the year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Meanwhile, the Cardinals will face Matthew Boyd, who has a 5.62 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Boyd is another lefty who has struggled against righties. He’s allowed a .363 wOBA and ISO of .209 against his last 73 righties.
The Cardinals are hitting a .208 ISO and wOBA of .352 with their righties in the projected lineup. They’ll likely have eight righties to face Boyd. I’m on the Cardinals -1.5.
MLB Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, May 05, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Washington Nationals
It’ll be Merrill Kelly on the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight. He’s got a 4.69 xFIP over the last 30 days but has at least earned nearly 48% of ground balls in that time frame.
Kelly has struggled more against righties, giving up a .362 wOBA and ISO of .217 against his last 56 righties. But the righties in the Nationals’ projected lineup are hitting a .063 ISO and wOBA of .274 against righties over the last 30 days. Don’t trust this Nationals’ offense.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Meanwhile, Josiah Gray will take the hill for the Nationals. He’s still got a 5.03 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s getting lower than 40% of ground balls and has walked over 9% of batters.
Still, Gray has limited extra-base hits and has shown signs of improvement this year. The Diamondbacks have a better roster of hitters, but they’ve walked just 6.7% of the time against righties and are hitting a .193 ISO.
Gray should be able to keep Arizona in check for most of the game, so I’ll take the Under in this game at +100 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, May 05, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Milwaukee Brewers
Sean Manaea is penned in to start tonight. He’s got a 5.56 xFIP over the last 30 days and has walked nearly 12% of batters.
He has also earned just 27.3% of ground balls and has given up 27.3% of line drives over the last 30 days. The lefty is giving up a ton of hard contact and watching lefties and righties tee off with high wOBA and ISO numbers.
However, the Brewers are hitting an ISO of .145 with a woBA of .292 against lefties. That, along with 29% of strikeouts. Manaea should still earn a high rate of strikeouts and be able to escape a poor Milwaukee offense against lefties.
San Francisco Giants
Then there’s Corbin Burnes. Burnes is still 3-1 but has a 4.01 ERA. His strikeouts are low over the last 30 days, and he’s holding a 4.41 xFIP. That’s unlike him.
He’s also facing a Giants lineup with a .275 ISO and wOBA of .346 against righties. San Francisco loves to platoon and should have a balanced lineup against Burnes.
Burnes has struggled more against righties, and the righties in the San Francisco lineup have combined to hit a .349 ISO and wOBA of .398 against righties over the last 30 days.
This might surprise some, but I’ve got the Giants at home.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+112) at BetRivers
