TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on May 25: Mariners Will Dominate the Night

There’s some baseball on during the day, but I’m looking at the night slate of games in the MLB. I have three best bets I’m confident in and firing on. Will you join me?

Picks Summary

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Thursday, May 25, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies could have been better offensively, but maybe yesterday’s comeback win against the Diamondbacks will start something.

Using the projected lineup, the offense has only hit a .235 wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days. However, Philadelphia still has a .174 ISO as a lineup against lefties.

They’ll face Dylan Dodd, who has a 7.83 xFIP over the last month. He’s got low strikeouts and high walks, and has watched his last 25 righties hit a .383 wOBA and ISO of .182.

The Phillies should have seven righties in the lineup to put some pressure on Dodd.

Atlanta Braves

Meanwhile, the Phillies will send out Aaron Nola. He’s got a 4.15 xFIP over the last month and has struck out close to 24% of batters.

Nola has kept walks and line drives down and will take on a Braves lineup that walks under 10% and hits under 19% of line drives over the last month against righties.

Atlanta is only hitting a .160 ISO and a wOBA of .307 over the last month against righties.

Nola’s the much better pitcher in this game. Grab the Phillies at the short moneyline price.

MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Thursday, May 25, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field

New York Mets

Kyle Hendricks will make his season debut against the Mets tonight. He finished 2022 with a 5.03 xFIP, allowing 24.2% of line drives while only striking out 18.5% of batters. He’s typically capable of going deep in games, but tonight, it’s unlikely.

The Mets have struggled offensively against righties in the last month. They’re only hitting a .158 ISO and wOBA of .313. But this offense must break out after losing the first two games to the Cubs in this series.

Hendricks is the guy that can help them. The Mets will put the ball in play and make things happen.

Chicago Cubs

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco will get the start for the Mets. He’s got a 5.58 xFIP over the last month and has struck out under 15% of batters.

He’s keeping line drives down and earning a high rate of grounders, but he always has one or two innings where he just forgets how to pitch.

The Cubs have hit a .191 ISO and wOBA of .347 against righties over the last month. They’ll have enough success to help push this game over the total.

I’m on the Over 7.5 in this game.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners

Thursday, May 25, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will have the challenge of hitting Logan Gilbert, who has had a 2.99 xFIP over the last month. He’s struck out over 30% of batters and has walked only 5.2% in the last 30 days.

Teams are rarely hitting extra-base hits against Gilbert. Right now, the Athletics are hitting a .291 wOBA against righties. They’ve also struck out over 26% of the time in the last month using the projected lineup. Don’t expect much out of Oakland’s lineup tonight.

Seattle Mariners

Then there’s JP Sears on the mound for Oakland. He’s got a 5.07 xFIP over the last month but still has high strikeouts and low walks. He’s just only getting 26.3% of grounders over the last month.

He has to face a Mariners lineup that has hit 23.8% of line drives and just 38.9% of ground balls against lefties over the last month. Sears is giving up a .236 ISO to his last 96 righties. He’ll have to face a lineup that should have seven righties in the lineup.

With that said, I like the Mariners to dominate the Athletics tonight.

Gilbert’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball, while JP Sears has struggled on the Athletics mound. If he can’t induce ground balls, it will be a long night for the lefty. Take the Mariners -1.5.

MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook