We’ve got all 30 teams playing a baseball game tonight. There are so many games to choose from. But I narrowed my best bets down to three. I’m feeling a good night is coming!
- ● Twins-Angels Under 8.5 (-105) at BetMGM
- ● Red Sox ML (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook
- ● Marlins-Giants Under 7.5 (-120) at BetMGM
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, May 19, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Minnesota Twins will take on Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels. Detmers is a lefty who has had a more challenging time getting lefties out than righties.
The Twins will likely have eight righties in the lineup and just one lefty. That should help Detmers get through the Twins’ lineup.
He’s struck out 25.6% of batters over the last 30 days and has kept righties down to a .314 wOBA and ISO of .074. Meanwhile, the Twins’ projected lineup is hitting a .131 ISO and wOBA of .268 over the last 30 days against lefties. They’ve also struck out over 25% of the time.
Los Angeles Angels
On the flip side, Joe Ryan will get the call for the Twins. He has a 3.60 xFIP over the last 30 days with 25.4% of strikeouts.
Ryan has earned high-ground balls and has limited walks and line drives over the last 30 days. It’s already hard to hit extra-base hits against Ryan.
The Angels are hitting an average ISO and wOBA. They’ve got four batters hitting high power and five struggling to hit extra-base hits. Hitting against Ryan will be hard, so let’s take the Under in this game.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at BetMGM
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, May 19, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Boston Red Sox
It’ll be Blake Snell on the mound for the Padres. He’s 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA. Over the last 30 days, the lefty has had a 4.95 xFIP with nearly 13% of walks.
Boston’s lineup has hit well for the most part this season. They’re probably better offensively against righties, but the Red Sox have still struck out just 18.6% of the time against lefties in the last month using their projected lineup. They’ve also hit 23% of line drives and have a BABIP of .355, which is good.
San Diego Padres
On the other hand, the Padres will face James Paxton, who is making his second start of the season. He’s thrown against 20 batters, earned 45% of strikeouts, and has an xFIP of 2.58.
It’s just one game, so we won’t overreact. But he’s facing a Padres lineup that has looked lost at the plate against righties. San Diego has a .156 ISO and wOBA of .308 against righties. They’ve also struck out 24.1% of the time and have hit 19.1% of line drives.
I’ll take the Red Sox tonight. They’ve got the value.
MLB Pick: Red Sox (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, May 19, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Anthony DeSclafani has been good for the Giants this season and he’ll take the mound tonight for San Francisco. DeSclafani has a 4.83 xFIP and low strikeouts over the last 30 days, but he’s limited walks and has kept fly balls down to 34% over the last month.
He’s really done well against lefties, holding lefties to a .275 wOBA and ISO of .048 over the last 68 plate appearances. Righties have a .232 ISO against DeSclafani over the last month, but the Marlins don’t have any righty that is a power threat against DeSclafani.
The righties in the Marlins lineup are hitting a .103 ISO. The Marlins are hitting a .113 ISO and wOBA of .260 as a team. That’s never going to get the job done offensively.
San Francisco Giants
Meanwhile, the former Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara, will take the mound for the Marlins. He has a 4.91 ERA, but his xFIP is at 4.03, and he’s got 25.7% of strikeouts over the last month.
His analytics are better than his box score stats. That likely means things are about to turn around for Alcantara.
He’s earned over 51% of ground balls, has kept walks down, and has given up only 18.1% of line drives. He’s facing a Giants lineup that has also struck out close to 26% of the time against righties over the last month. Plus, this lineup has walked 7.5% of the time against righties, which isn’t all that high anyway.
I’m backing the Under in this late-night matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetMGM