TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on May 18: Dylan Cease to Get Back on Track Tonight

It’s a small slate tonight in the MLB. Teams are traveling to their next destination. But we still have enough games on the slate to find some value. Here are three best bets to consider for today.

Picks Summary

Guardians vs. White Sox: Under 7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Blue Jays ML (-125) at WynnBet

Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Over 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Thursday, May 18, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

Cleveland Guardians

It hasn’t been the best of seasons for the former Cy Young, Dylan Cease. He’ll take the mound today against the Guardians, holding a 4.86 ERA.

He’s got a 5.66 xFIP over the last 30 days and has allowed over 47% of hard contact. He’s also not getting strikeouts like he did last year.

But he’ll face a Guardians lineup that has hit a .087 ISO and wOBA of .245 against righties over the last 30 days. Cleveland has also earned just 7.6% of walks and has hit only 19.1% of line drives. Cease should get back on track today.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will take on left-hander Logan Allen. Allen has struck out over 25% of batters while limiting walks to 7.4%. He’s struggled against lefties more than righties, but as a left-handed pitcher, he’ll face a full lineup of righties against the White Sox.

Chicago has hit a .156 ISO and wOBA of .260 against lefties over the last month. They’ve also struck out over 29% of the time against lefties.

With Allen facing only righties, I like his chances to put together a quality start.

I’m riding the Under in this matchup at -105 betting odds.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Thursday, May 18, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

New York Yankees

It’ll be Jose Berrios on the mound for the Blue Jays tonight. He’s holding an xFIP of 4.08 and has earned over 52% of ground balls. Berrios isn’t getting high strikeouts and has struggled a bit against lefties to begin the year.

But the Yankees will only have three lefties in the lineup. The righties in the New York lineup are hitting a .138 ISO and wOBA of .292. There are no genuine threats other than Aaron Judge.

Toronto Blue Jays

Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes will man the mound for the Yankees. The left-hander has a 6.08 xFIP over the last month. He’s still getting about 24% of strikeouts but has high walks, low ground balls and is giving up over 58% of fly balls.

Lefties have a .333 ISO, and righties have a .220 ISO over the last 30 days against Cortes. Toronto’s lineup should consist mainly of righties against the lefty. The Blue Jays have hit a .258 ISO and wOBA of .392 with their probable lineup against lefties.

Grab the Blue Jays at home. They match up much better than the Yankees tonight.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-125) at WynnBet

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday, May 18, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have slugged against righties over the last month. Adam Wainwright, a righty, will take the hill for the Cardinals tonight.

He’s a veteran pitcher who isn’t getting high strikeouts anymore. Wainwright has struck out 15.2% of batters over the last month and has an xFIP of 5.02. Lefties have a .439 wOBA and ISO of .280, while righties have hit a .339 wOBA and ISO of .222.

The Dodgers are balanced with righties and lefties in their lineup. Combined, they’ve hit a .264 ISO and wOBA of .366 and have had under 20% strikeouts against righties over the last month.

St. Louis Cardinals

Meanwhile, Julio Urias will take the hill for the Dodgers. He’s a lefty struggling badly against righties.

Righties have hit a .275 ISO against Urias over his 87 plate appearances.

St. Louis has a lineup with eight righties to go up against Urias. Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado hit lefties at an elevated rate last month.

Urias currently has a 4.66 xFIP over the last 30 days. Like Wainwright, he won’t walk a lot of batters, but he’s still giving up a lot of hard contacts and rarely earning ground balls. That should help St. Louis get on the board quickly against the Dodgers.

Both lineups should do damage tonight, so I’m taking the Over in this one.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook