There’s plenty of baseball on the schedule tonight. I’ve added three best betting picks for the later games on the slate to give you all more time to get your bets in. Let’s earn some profit tonight!
Picks Summary
- ● Braves-Rangers Under 7.5 (-108) at SBK
- ● Guardians-WhiteSox Under 9 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- ● Cubs-Astros Over 8 (-115) at BetMGM
Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves will take on Nathan Eovaldi tonight. Eovaldi has evolved recently. He’s got a 2.70 ERA on the year and an xFIP of 2.99 over the last 30 days.
The right-hander has struck out close to 27% of batters over the last 30 days and has walked just 3.6% of batters. He’s also earning nearly 54% of ground balls over the last month.
Eovaldi has kept extra-base hits down, and he’ll take on a Braves lineup that has only hit a .133 ISO and wOBA of .297 against righties over the last month.
Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy have had pop, but the rest of the lineup has been silent and inconsistent.
Texas Rangers
Meanwhile, it’ll be Spencer Strider on the hill for the Braves. He’s been even better than Eovaldi. He’s got a 2.45 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out over 44% of batters.
Strider has also kept walks down. He’s going to take on a harder lineup. But Strider is an elite pitcher who can navigate any lineup in the big leagues.
I’m taking the Under 7.5 here.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-108) at SBK
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians will face Mike Clevinger in tonight’s game. Clevinger has a 5.80 xFIP, under 19% of strikeouts in the last 30 days.
Clevinger won’t earn a high rate of grounders and has watched lefties hit a .429 ISO against him over his last 44 plate appearances against lefties.
However, the Guardians’ lefties have combined for a .086 ISO and wOBA of .247. Clevinger might be able to escape damage against the Guardians tonight. He hasn’t been good, but the Guardians’ offense has been just as bad, if not worse.
They only have one player hitting a wOBA of higher than .328 against righties over the last 30 days.
Chicago White Sox
On the other hand, Peyton Battenfield will take the hill for the Guardians. He’s 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA on the season. Battenfield has had some good moments but doesn’t get run support.
That’ll probably happen again tonight, knowing how poor the Guardians have been hitting this season.
But Battenfield has done some good things. He’s earned close to 48% of ground balls and has given up under 14% of line drives over the last month. He’s kept righties below average, but lefties have hit a .334 wOBA with an ISO of .366.
But like the Guardians, the White Sox’s lefties haven’t performed. They’ve hit a .151 ISO and wOBA of .314 against righties over the last 30 days. Only Gavin Sheets is a real threat from the left side.
We’ve got two mediocre pitchers and two lineups that have performed well below average. I’m riding the Under.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, May 17, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Chicago Cubs
J.P. France will man the mound for the Astros tonight. He’s got a 4.64 xFIP over the last month and has only struck out 18.2% of batters. He’s also earning below-average ground balls and has given up over 21% of line drives.
The Cubs haven’t hit righties at a very high rate over the last month. But they still have a .335 wOBA against righties, with Christopher Morel and Ian Happ hitting high wOBA against righties of over .400 each.
Houston Astros
It’ll be lefty Drew Smyly on the mound for the Cubs. He’s got a 4.59 xFIP with only 32.9% of ground balls earned over the last month.
Smyly has kept extra-base hits down so far. But that’s not going to last. He’s facing an Astros projected lineup that has struck out only 11.2% of the time against lefties. Houston’s going to put the ball in play and have success doing it.
They’ve smacked over 22% of line drives and have a .286 BABIP. That number will rise, especially against Smyly, who is struggling to earn high strikeouts tonight.
I’m taking the Over 8.5 between two lower-tier pitchers.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at BetMGM
