TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on May 15: Twins’ Better Pitching to Favor Them vs. Dodgers

MLB Pick: Twins ML (+105) at WynnBet

Picks Summary

  • Diamondbacks vs. Athletics: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-125)
  • Phillies vs. Giants: Giants ML (-115)
  • Twins vs. Dodgers: Twins ML (+105)

We’ve got a 12-game slate in the MLB tonight. That’s rare for a Monday, but we’ll certainly take it. Here are three betting picks to consider for tonight’s action.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Oakland Athletics

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Teams Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have secretly hit well this season. Arizona’s projected lineup has hit a .190 ISO and wOBA of .381 against righties over the last 30 days. Only two players in the lineup have wOBA below .360 in that time frame.

They’ll face Drew Rucinski, who has a 6.57 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out 8.2% of batters and has walked 12.3%. He’s also allowed many extra-base hits against lefties in the last month.

Oakland Athletics

On the flip side, Merrill Kelly will get the call for Arizona. He’s been terrific, holding an xFIP of 3.56 in the last month. Kelly has struck out 26.7% of batters and has walked under 7%. Kelly’s also limited extra-base hits and neither side of the plate has hit a high wOBA in the last 30 days against Kelly.

The Athletics have hit a .168 ISO and wOBA of .305 against righties using their projected lineup over the last 30 days. That’s not nearly as good as Arizona’s lineup.

Take the Diamondbacks on the run line at -125 betting odds.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-125) at BetMGM

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Teams Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are hitting an ISO of .204 but a wOBA of .289 against lefties over the last 30 days. They’ll hit an occasional extra-base hit, but the team rarely gets on base while striking out over 26% of the time over the last 30 days.

Philadelphia will take on Alex Wood, a lefty with a 3.86 xFIP. He’s struck out 25% of batters, and while walks are a bit high, he’s getting 60% of ground balls and allowing only 20% of line drives. He should be able to escape this Phillies lineup.

San Francisco Giants

On the other hand, Bailey Falter will take the mound for the Phillies. He’s another lefty who hasn’t pitched nearly as well as Wood. Falter is 0-6 with a 5.75 ERA. He’s also got an xFIP of 5.38 over the last month.

The Giants don’t have a ton of pop in their lineup, but Falter allows a high ISO to both sides of the plate. San Francisco’s lineup should start to hit more extra-base hits against lefties starting tonight against Falter.

LaMonte Wade Jr. and Casey Schmitt are two bats that have destroyed lefties. Those two should set the tone for the Giants tonight.

The Pick

I’ll grab the Giants, at home, on the moneyline.

MLB Pick: Giants ML (-115) at BetMGM

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Teams Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers

Noah Syndergaard isn’t what he used to be. He’s currently 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA on the season. Syndergaard also has a 5.24 xFIP with only 13.3% of strikeouts in the last month. In his defense, he’s limited walks, but he’s also allowed over 25% of line drives in the last 30 days.

Minnesota has hit a .249 ISO and wOBA of .341 against righties over the last month with their projected lineup. Only two batters have an ISO below .176 against righties in that lineup against righties. The Twins also have four batters hitting a wOBA of at least .368 against righties.

Meanwhile, Syndergaard has allowed a .372 wOBA to his last 56 lefties and a .175 ISO to his last 42 righties. He’s been all over the place this season.

Minnesota Twins

Then there’s Pablo Lopez. Lopez will take the mound for the Twins with a 3.47 ERA. He’ll have some poor moments, but overall, he’s been much more consistent than Syndergaard.

Lopez has a 4.29 xFIP and has struck out over 28% of batters over the last 30 days. He’s been worse against righties but will face a balanced lineup against the Dodgers. Lopez has held his last 58 lefties to a .080 ISO.

The Dodgers will have a more challenging time hitting Lopez than the Twins will have to hit Syndergaard.

The Pick

I’m taking the Twins with the better pitcher on the mound. They’re underdogs with their ace on the mound compared to the Dodgers, who have their worst starter on the mound.

MLB Pick: Twins ML (+105) at WynnBet