- • Rangers – Athletics Over 8.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • Giants – Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- • Dodgers ML (-133) at BetMGM
It’s time to earn some profit to begin the weekend. Here are three betting picks to consider for tonight’s MLB slate.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, May 12, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
The Rangers will get to slug against Ken Waldichuk. He’s a lefty with a 5.91 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out under 19% of batters over the last month and has walked 11.4%.
Waldichuk won’t get many ground balls and has given up over 24% of line drives in the last 30 days. He’s been terrible against righties, allowing a .371 wOBA and ISO of .239 over his last 101 plate appearances against righties. Texas will have a lineup of at least eight righties.
Those righties have hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .368 against lefties over the last 30 days. So Texas should have a solid night against Waldichuk offensively.
Meanwhile, Martin Perez will get the call for the Rangers. He’s another lefty who has struggled analytically. Perez has a 5.35 xFIP over the last 30 days but has a 3.86 ERA on the season.
Perez has struck out 13.6% of batters over the last 30 days and has allowed close to 24% of line drives. He’s limited extra-base hits well but had allowed a high wOBA to both sides of the plate.
The Athletics are still hitting a .198 ISO and wOBA of .338 against lefties over the last 30 days. Oakland will also have a full lineup of righties against the lefties.
I think we’ll see plenty of runs in this ball game. Take the Over at -120 betting odds.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, May 12, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
San Francisco Giants
It’ll be Ryne Nelson on the mound for the Diamondbacks. He’s got a 6.00 ERA and an xFIP of 4.52. He’s been better than his ERA but can’t get high strikeouts. He’s earned 47.7% of ground balls over the last 30 days but has given up close to 24% of line drives.
Nelson has allowed a high wOBA to both sides of the plate but has allowed more extra-base hits against righties.
The righties in the San Francisco lineup have combined to hit a .216 ISO and wOBA of .349 against righties over the last month.
San Francisco is used to striking out at a high rate, but against Nelson, that likely won’t be the case. If the Giants put the ball in play, they will see some good things happen.
John Brebbia will get the start for the Giants, but it’ll be mostly Ross Stripling pitching against the Diamondbacks tonight.
Stripling has had a 3.45 xFIP over the last 30 days with high-enough strikeouts and low enough walks.
Lefties have a higher wOBA of .347 over the last month. But righties have hit more extra-base hits with a .208 ISO in the last 30 days.
Arizona has hit a .206 ISO and wOBA of .362 against righties over the last month using their projected lineup. Only two batters in the lineup have struggled against righties, the rest have hit an above-average rate.
I’m backing the Over in this game as well.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, May 12, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
San Diego Padres
The Padres will take on Dustin May, who has a 2.68 ERA. But he hasn’t been that great. May has had a 5.49 xFIP over the last 30 days with 18% of strikeouts and 10.8% of walks.
May’s getting a nice portion of grounders and limiting line drives. He’s also been lucky with a BABIP of .224 over the last 30 days.
Luckily, he’ll face a Padres lineup with a .150 ISO and wOBA of .302 against righties over the last 30 days. San Diego has hit just 18.1% of line drives over the last month against righties with their projected lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Meanwhile, Blake Snell will get the ball for the Padres. He’s 1-5 with a 4.89 ERA. He’s not getting run support, but he’s also not pitching at a high level.
He’s got a 5.32 xFIP over the last 30 days with 13.8% of walks. Snell doesn’t induce a high amount of grounders and is allowing over 22% of line drives. He’s known for his strikeouts, but he’s only struck out 24.1% of batters over the last 30 days, which is high but not high enough for someone like Snell.
The Dodgers have hit a .213 ISO and wOBA of .274 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Los Angeles will string together a couple of extra-base hits and sneak by against a Padres lineup that is just not performing.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-133) at BetMGM