Top MLB Picks for Wednesday
- • Padres-Twins Under 8.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • White Sox ML (-135) at WynnBet
- • Cardinals-Cubs Over 7.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbooks
There are many games in the afternoon for today’s MLB slate. But don’t worry, I made sure to add betting picks for the nightcap of games to give you enough time to get these bets in. Let’s earn some profit today!
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
San Diego Padres
The Padres will have to face Pablo Lopez tonight. Lopez is 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA. However, he’s holding an xFIP of 3.73 over the last 30 days with 28.8% of strikeouts and 4.5% of walks.
San Diego’s projected lineup has six players striking out rapidly. They’ve also left much to be desired against righties, hitting a .153 ISO and wOBA of .302 against righties over the last month.
The Padres have six batters walking at least 12.5% of the time against righties, but Lopez, again, hasn’t walked batters at a high rate this year.
Minnesota Twins
Meanwhile, Seth Lugo will get the start for the Padres. He’s got a 3.21 ERA but an xFIP of 4.15. Lugo, like Lopez, has kept walking down, but he’s not getting a high rate of strikeouts. He’s been able to limit extra-base hits, which will be critical against a Twins lineup that has earned a .215 ISO against righties over the last month.
Still, the Twins have hit a wOBA of under .300 over the last month and have struck out close to 25% of the time against righties.
I like the Under in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just 13-24 on the season. But they’ll face Brad Keller today, who has a 6.52 xFIP.
Keller has walked more than he’s struck out over the last 30 days and has watched lefties and righties take advantage of him throughout the season.
The White Sox aren’t hitting at a high rate. Using the projected lineup, they’ve got a .134 ISO and wOBA of .297 against righties over the last 30 days. But the White Sox have struck out just above 19% of the time. They’ll put the ball in play, and good things happen when you do that.
Kansas City Royals
On the other hand, Lance Lynn will get the start for the White Sox. He’s been good analytically, holding a 3.05 xFIP over the last 30 days.
So forget about his 6.88 ERA. He’s struck out 30.7% of batters and has walked only 6.3% over the last 30 days. He’s not even allowing a ton of extra bases.
Lynn should start to see his ERA and overall numbers improve, especially against a Royals bunch with a .133 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties over the last 30 days.
I’m taking the White Sox on the moneyline here.
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (-135) at WynnBet
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
St. Louis Cardinals
We’ll begin with the Cardinals. They’ll face lefty Justin Steele, who is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA. That’s likely not going to continue forever. But Steele has a 4.09 xFIP with low walks, high-ground balls, and low-line drives over the last 30 days.
It’s just that he’s not earning a high rate of strikeouts. The Cardinals have five batters striking out under 17% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days.
St. Louis has also hit a .198 ISO and wOBA of .346 against lefties and should have at least eight righties in the lineup.
Chicago Cubs
Conversely, Jordan Montgomery, another lefty, will take the hill for the Cardinals. He’s also been good, with a 3.29 ERA on the season.
Montgomery has an xFIP of 3.90 in the last month and has earned 50% of ground balls. He’s been worse to righties, allowing a .337 wOBA and ISO of .185. He’ll have to face at least eight righties in the Chicago lineup, which won’t help.
The Cubs have hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .339 against lefties. The lineup has enough potential to stick around with St. Louis’ offense.
Therefore, I’ll rock with the Over in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbooks
