Picks Summary
• Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Cardinals vs. Mariners: Mariners ML (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Mets vs. Giants: Mets ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
We’ve got a full slate on the horizon today. Here are some MLB picks for the later games on the night.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, April 21, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Teams Analysis
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres now have Fernando Tatis in the lineup. The core four is now starting in the lineup over the weekend; that includes Tatis, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts. It sounds like a lethal lineup, but the rest of the lineup strikes out at a very high rate.
Meanwhile, it’ll be Zac Gallen on the mound for Arizona. He’s holding an xFIP of 3.19 and has struck out 28% of batters. He’s also walked only 5.4% of batters.
Gallen has had a little trouble against righties, allowing an ISO of .184, but overall, he’s been very good.
The Padres have some power from Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts, but it’s nothing really coming from anywhere else right now against righties.
Arizona Diamondbacks
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will face Seth Lugo. Lugo is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the season. He’s also holding a 3.32 xFIP with 24.3% of strikeouts and 7.1% of walks. Lugo is getting over 45% of ground balls and allowing close to 26% of line drives.
He’s got a tougher assignment against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has a .216 ISO and wOBA of .335 against righties this season. They’ve also struck out 17.8% of the time against righties using the projected lineup.
The Pick
Lugo will crack before Gallen.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 21, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Teams Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals
George Kirby will take the mound for the Mariners. He’s 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA on the season. However, he’s holding an xFIP of 4.50 and has struck out just 17.1% of batters.
The good news is that he’s only walked 1.4% of batters, despite allowing 28.6% of line drives. Kirby is just allowing a little too much ISO to lefties, but the Cardinals’ big hitters mainly bat on the right side. Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and Lars Nootbaar should all have success.
But the big bats in the lineup are usually Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras.
The Cardinals have combined to hit a .346 wOBA against righties this season. They’re a dangerous offense despite the 8-11 record.
Seattle Mariners
Meanwhile, Steven Matz will get the start for the Cardinals. He’s a lefty with a 6.48 ERA on the season. However, his xFIP is at 4.02, and he’s struck out over 22% of batters.
Matz has struggled against righties, allowing a .434 wOBA and ISO of .211 to his first 65 righties faced this year. The Mariners should have a nearly full lineup of righties, including Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh. Those three have slugged against lefties this season.
The Pick
Take the home team.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, April 21, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Teams Analysis
New York Mets
The Mets have won seven of their last eight games and exploded for nine runs last night. The offense will face a very good Anthony DeSclafani tonight.
DeSclafani has a 1.42 ERA and an xFIP of 2.68. He’s struck out 23.5% of batters without walking anyone.
But the Mets have worked walks against righties 16% of the time. The Mets have also struck out just 14.4% of the time against righties using their projected lineup.
New York will make DeSclafani work tonight. They’ve added a .344 wOBA against righties this season.
San Francisco Giants
Meanwhile, it’ll be Joey Lucchesi on the mound for the Mets tonight. He’ll make his first start of the season for the Mets, who are very thin at the starter position.
Lucchesi didn’t pitch last year as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. But in 2021, he started eight games and had a 4.46 ERA in 38.1 innings pitched.
He doesn’t figure to go deep in tonight’s game, but he’s facing a Giants lineup with a .152 ISO and wOBA of .292 against lefties this season. The Giants have also struck out 24.8% of the time against lefties and have earned just 5.5% of walks. Lucchesi is going to do fine.
The Pick
Back the red-hot Mets tonight.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
