There’s a smaller slate on the horizon tonight, but I’ve still got three betting picks that I’ll be placing for tonight’s game. Let’s earn some profit tonight!
Picks Summary
- • Reds vs. Pirates Over 9 (-110)
- • Phillies -1.5 (-115)
- • Padres vs. Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-115)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, April 20, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at PNC Park
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will face Roansy Contreras of the Pirates tonight, who has a 6.00 ERA with a 5.72 xFIP.
He’s struck out under 16% of batters and has walked 11.6% of batters. He’s also giving up over 27% of line drives while earning 41.7% of ground balls.
Contreras has been good against righties. But he’s allowing a wOBA of .418 to lefties. He’ll face just three lefties in the Reds’ lineup tonight, but those lefties are hitting a combined .195 ISO and wOBA of .340 against righties. There’s power potential for the Reds.
Pittsburgh Pirates
On the other hand, Luke Weaver will make his season debut tonight. Weaver had a 4.35 xFIP last season but allowed over 30% of line drives. The Pirates have hit just 18% of line drives against righties using their projected lineup. But the team has also hit a .198 ISO and wOBA of .324 against righties.
Pittsburgh is coming off an offensive explosion in Colorado. They won’t be nearly as good tonight, but you can expect some power out of this lineup as well.
I’ll take the Over 9 between these two teams at -110 MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, April 20, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies will face Matt Strahm, who has struck out 32% of batters this season. That won’t help the Rockies, who have struck out 24% of the time against lefties using the projected lineup.
The Rockies have hit a .110 ISO and wOBA of .298 with only 7.5% of walks against lefties. Only Kris Bryant has any type of potential against Strahm.
Strahm has limited extra-base hits and isn’t allowing a high wOBA to either side. He won’t be able to give the Phillies 100 pitches, but he’s stretching out as the season progresses.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Rockies are just 5-14 on the season. Their pitching could be better. Tonight, Ryan Feltner will take the hill. He’s a righty with an 8.78 ERA on the season.
Feltner has an xFIP of 5.73 and has walked nearly 17% of batters. He can get a solid portion of ground balls, but it won’t matter until he limits walks.
Righties are hitting a .431 wOBA and ISO of .296. The Phillies should have at least five righties in the lineup. Philadelphia has hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .374 against righties as a team.
Philadelphia should be able to do plenty of damage. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, April 20, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
San Diego Padres
The Padres only scored one run last night, but that was enough to beat the Atlanta Braves. Tonight, it’ll be a different story.
They’re taking on Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks. He’s holding an xFIP of 5.35 with only 14.3% of strikeouts.
Lefties have hit a .376 wOBA and ISO of .200 against Nelson in 30 plate appearances. He’ll face Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, Jake Cronenworth, and Trent Grisham, who will all be batting on the left side. They’ve combined to hit a .202 ISO and wOBA of .339.
Plus, Fernando Tatis will return to the lineup after dealing with a suspension. So the Padres are going to be a tough out now.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Meanwhile, Michael Wacha is expected to take the mound for the Padres. He’s got a 5.13 xFIP and has allowed an ISO of .455 to lefties and a .233 ISO to righties. The Diamondbacks have hit a .195 ISO and wOBA of .327 as a projected lineup, which is really good. There’s plenty of power for Arizona, and they should have success against Wacha too.
Arizona has five players hitting an ISO of at least .222 against righties this season. The Diamondbacks have also hit nearly 26% of line drives with this projected lineup against righties.
I’m taking the Over in this game.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-115) at BetRivers
