Although it’s a smaller slate today, there’s still plenty of value on the MLB odds board. I’ve found three of my favorite bets and shared them below.
Picks Summary
- • Athletics vs. Orioles Over 9.5 (-118)
- • Reds (-120)
- • Cardinals -1.5 (-125)
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 01:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics ended a long losing streak with an 8-4 win over the Orioles last night. They’ll take on former Athletics pitcher Cole Irvin in today’s game, who is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA to begin the year. He’s holding a 6.17 xFIP and has walked 14% of batters.
Irvin won’t get a high rate of grounders and is giving up over 21% of line drives. He hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit to lefties as a left-handed pitcher. But righties are hitting a .379 wOBA and ISO of .259 against him.
The Athletics should have a full right-handed lineup. They’re not the most explosive offense, but they’ll be sneaky against Irvin, who has struggled against righties.
Baltimore Orioles
On the other hand, Adam Oller will start for the Athletics. The Orioles should do just as much damage, if not more.
Oller has a 6.27 xFIP with 14% strikeouts and 11.6% walks. He’s earned only 37.5% of ground balls and gives up 43.8% of hard contact when balls are put into play.
He’s been good against righties, holding them to a .272 wOBA and ISO of .143. But lefties are hitting a .380 wOBA and ISO of .383.
The Orioles should have more lefties than righties in their lineup tonight. The projected lineup has a .209 ISO and wOBA of .340. We can expect plenty of runs out of the Orioles today.
I’m on the Over 9.5 for this first MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-109) at BetRivers
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are just 4-8 to begin the year, and it’s not going to get any easier. Nick Lodolo will get the start for the Reds tonight.
Lodolo has a 2.15 xFIP with 41.2% strikeouts. He’s one of the best up-and-coming pitchers in the game, holding a 1-0 record with a 1.50 ERA, and he can obviously strike out plenty of batters per game.
The Phillie has hit a .120 ISO against righties to begin the year with their projected lineup. The team has also earned under 6% of walks and has struck out over 23% of the time.
Philadelphia’s struggling, and until Bryce Harper returns, it’ll be the same story for the Phillies, game after game.
Cincinnati Reds
Bailey Falter will get another start for the Phillies. He’s 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA. But ignore that. He’s holding a 4.53 xFIP with 12.5% of strikeouts.
Falter hasn’t walked anyone yet. That’s been good. He’s also added 48.6% of ground balls and has given up only 17.1% of line drives.
But righties still have a .188 ISO against him this year. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and Kevin Newman have all hit high ISO against lefties to begin the year.
I’ll rock with the Reds at home.
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, April 13, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Buch Stadium
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have some guys that are very hot against lefties. They’ve got other guys who are extremely cold against lefties.
They’ll face Jordan Montgomery tonight, who has a 2-0 record with a 2.25 ERA. He’s still holding a 4.35 xFIP to begin the year, but the lefty has struck out 25% and walked just 6.3% of batters this year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez will get the call for the Pirates. He’s got a 9.82 ERA to begin the year. His xFIP is just as bad. He’s got a 7.53 xFIP with 10.8% of strikeouts and 13.5% of walks.
Velasquez is also earning just 35.7% of ground balls and giving up 25% of line drives. He’s been much better against righties, but lefties have hit a .540 wOBA and ISO of .400 against him this season.
St. Louis will have at least four lefties in the lineup. Plus, Paul Goldschmidt is tearing up right-handed pitching as a righty, along with many other righties in the lineup.
I’ll take the Cardinals at -1.5 against the Pirates at home.
MLB Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-120) at BetMGM
